India sizzles: IMD predicts surge in maximum temperatures by 2°C in several parts of Northwest, Central India

Some relief expected with a fresh WD and isolated light to moderate rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab and Rajasthan between May 9 and 12

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Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, May 6

The IMD on Monday predicted a surge in maximum temperature by 2°C in several parts of Northwest and Central India in the coming couple of days. However, some relief can be expected around May 9 with the arrival of a fresh Western Disturbance in the region.

“A rise in maximum temperatures by about 2°C is very likely over most parts of plains of Northwest India (except east Uttar Pradesh where temperatures are likely to fall by 2-3°C),” the weather office said in its outlook for the next five days.

Meanwhile, strong surface winds (25-35 kmph) are expected to prevail over Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan during the next 3-4 days, it added.

A fresh WD is likely to affect Northwest India around May 9, under the influence of which scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) are very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand between May 9 to 12.

“Isolated light to moderate rainfall is very likely over Haryana-Chandigarh, Punjab and Rajasthan and isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall activity over West Uttar Pradesh during May 9 and 12,” it added.

Missing rains and heat

Last week the IMD predicted that the number of heat wave days in May 2024 will be above normal.

Unprecedented rise in temperatures has been attributed to absence of pre-Monsoon rain and thundershowers during April due to which countrywide cumulative rainfall was deficit by almost 20%.

Rainfall during April 2024 over South Peninsular India (12.6 mm) was fifth lowest since 1901 and second lowest since 2001. This was followed by Northeast India which was deficit by 39%.

On Sunday, maximum temperatures hovered in the range of 44-45°C in pockets over Telangana, Rayalaseema, Vidarbha, North interior Karnataka, North Madhya Pradesh; in the range of 42-44°C in some parts of Marathwada, Southeast Uttar Pradesh, Northeast Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, North Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

They were above normal 4-7°C in some parts of Gangetic West Bengal and 2-5°C over some parts of Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, and in isolated pockets over Kerala and Mahe, Interior Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand, as per the IMD.

Above normal rainfall in upcoming monsoon season

The wet spell accompanied with thunderstorms and gusty winds along Eastern and Southern Peninsula till May 10 has increased the possibility of good rains during the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season. Heat wave conditions will also abate over East India from Monday and South Peninsular India from Tuesday onwards.

Backed by WMO and Pune-based Regional Climate Centre, the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum recently predicted “above normal” rains for most of the South Asian countries in the upcoming monsoon season.

However, a few areas in northern, eastern and north-eastern parts of the region are predicted to receive below normal rainfall.

The normal date of arrival of monsoon over the Indian mainland in Kerala is June 1.

Accounting for 75-90 per cent of the annual rainfall in most parts of the region (except Sri Lanka and south-eastern India) the monsoon is a key factor in overall socio-economy well-being of the nation.

El Niño

Currently moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are expected to weaken to neutral conditions during the early part of the monsoon season and then to transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of the monsoon season.

However, there is uncertainty in its strength and the time of its onset, as per the WMO which will issue its next El Niño/La Niña update and global annual to decadal update by the beginning of June.

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