Cong gains, BJP on thin ice
From Shubhabrata Bhattacharya
Tribune News Service

NEW DELHI, Sept 22 — For the first time since the installation of the Atal Behari Vajpayee Government, the Congress finds itself in a position of advantage while the BJP, due to its own doings, is skating on thin ice. However, it remains to be seen if the Sonia Gandhi-led party will be able to go from "advantage" to a winning situation, or the BJP, to borrow a parlance from tennis, will be able to force a "deuce".

Having overstretched itself on the issue of the dismissal of the Rabri Devi Government, the BJP leadership perhaps had little choice. On the one hand, its party unit in Patna was pressing the issue. The Samata Party, an ally with 13 seats (which makes it the second largest coalition partner after the AIADMK, was insisting on adopting the course of action chosen by the Union Cabinet today for a long time.

The fact that things are not hunky dory under the Rabri-led Laloo Yadav’s proxy regime in Bihar is not debatable. However, as pointed out by the Opposition, Bihar is not the only state where law and order is not up to the mark. Perhaps to drive home its point forcefully, today itself a Congress delegation met Home Minister L.K. Advani and conveyed to the Centre its concern and anguish over the deteriorating law and order situation in Delhi, which has a BJP Government and whose law and order is under the direct charge of the Union Home Ministry under Mr Advani.

The AIADMK has again raised the issue of the dismissal of the DMK Government in Tamil Nadu (it was raised at today’s Cabinet meeting itself) and indicated that its 17 votes were not available for ratification of the Bihar government's dismissal in Parliament unless a quid pro quo was worked out regarding Chennai.

The opposition within the coalition has not come from Tamil Nadu alone, according to reports Karnataka’s Jan Shakti leader, Mr R.K. Hegde, Union Commerce Minister, has faxed a protest letter from Bangalore against today’s move.

While the Samata Party has been demanding the head of the Bihar Chief Minister, the Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal Trinamool Congress has been making a similar demand regarding the Jyoti Basu regime.

In Haryana, the situation is peculiar. While the BJP has an alliance with the ruling Haryana Vikas Party, its another ally from the state at the Centre, the Haryana Lok Dal (Rashtriya) has been demanding the dismissal of the Bansi Lal government.

Punjab’s Shiromani Akali Dal’s traditional stand against the use of Article 356 is well-known. So much so that when the Tamil Nadu government led by Mr M. Karunanidhi was dismissed in 1991 by the Chandra Shekhar Regime, the then Tamil Nadu Governor, Mr Surjit Singh Barnala, had declined to give his report to the Centre. He subsequently quit Raj Bhawan. Mr Barnala, who is now a Cabinet Minister, was not present at today’s meeting, though the official explanation available was that he had not been well (Mr Barnala had been indisposed during the past week which had come in the way of his visit to Chennai on September 15).

Apart from its stand on Article 356, the SAD has also reasons to feel unhappy because of the decision in Lucknow to keep Hardwar in Uttar Pradesh while sending Udham Singh Nagar to Uttaranchal.

The situation, therefore, is complex and by today’s decision, the BJP government may have stirred the hornet’s nest.

For the Congress, today’s Cabinet decision has come as a blessing in disguise. Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s obtrusive "reluctance" to pull down the Vajpayee regime had been jarring for the "secular parties", especially the constituents of the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM). The parties opposed to the BJP who had been looking to the Congress for upsetting the Vajpayee applecart had been somewhat disappointed after the Pachmarhi conclave.

Overnight the situation has changed. The Congress has lent its helping hand to the RLM in Patna. Even parties hitherto allergic to the Congress, like the DMK, are taking a stand akin to that of the main Opposition party. Thus, for Mrs Sonia Gandhi, it is a win-win situation.

So far other parties had been offering cooperation to the Congress on their terms. If the Congress leadership manages to steer the course of political events in the coming days to their advantage, for the first time in 50 years the Congress could find itself in a position of advantage in which it would be talking to potential allies and supporting parties on terms determined by 10, Janpath.