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E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
Friday, September 25, 1998 |
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Rain
and grain output Vajpayee
regimes |
Seventh
Hindu Mahasabha |
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Rain and grain output WHEN the television anchor announces that weather would be pleasant with day temperature at 30 degrees or so in the North-West she also means that it would be an unpleasant absence of bright sunshine or the presence of light showers for the farming community. That is how it has been for the past two days in this region. Harvested grain is getting soaked in persistent drizzle and lush standing crop faces the danger of lodging. The impact of this will cast a shadow across two vital aspects of the economy. If the total kharif yield falls short of the target, prices will go up and the economic growth rate will falter below the projected 5 per cent. Both these unpleasant consequences could be real this year, according to an official study. Kharif harvest will be about 101 million tonnes, marking a decline of slightly less than 1 per cent from last years figure. This is because of prolonged floods in eastern UP, northern Bihar and West Bengal. The earlier hopes of salvaging the affected paddy crop have evaporated and it would be a miracle if near normalcy is restored by the rabi harvesting season. Reports talk of silt-filled fields, flattened roads and houses and near total decimation of cattle. Now that the full extent of the damage is broadly known, it is time to review the old estimates and inject a sense of realism in them. Hence the new assessment that kharif production will most probably be nearly 1 per cent less than last years 101.64 million tonnes. Rabi yield has to go up by nearly 5 per cent if the hope of achieving an overall 3.5 per cent growth in agriculture is to be realised. Any shortfall will automatically bring down the GDP growth. In other words, Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha has to wait for a few more months for the feel-good factor to emerge on the Indian horizon. The most worrisome part of
the foodgrain short story is its baneful
influence on prices. As it is, sustained pressure on
inflationary tendency comes from food articles,
vegetables and edible oil in the main. If the psychology
of shortfall (scarcity) hits the bazaar, grains will
become costlier. The country has the experience of
1996-end before it. Right now the open market
availability of wheat is grossly less than what is
normal. The Food Corporation of India is yet to evolve a
concrete plan to release wheat and thin down its godowns
bulging with more than 15 million tonnes (out of 27
million tonnes of all foodgrains). The bad news about a
poorer than hoped for kharif output cannot but trigger an
upward momentum of the general price line. The people
will forget the mustard oil trauma as they begin to
grapple with creeping upward prices of wheat and rice in
this festive season. The FCI can still tide it over by
imaginative open market operation. For that it should
shed its lethargy. |
Turmoil in Malaysia THE crisis in Malaysia is getting deeper with the passage of time. Till some time ago its nature was purely economic. But now it has acquired a political dimension. Since July, 1997, the countrys entire economic structure has been under great strain, with its currency losing heavily in terms of the US dollar. In one year Malaysias ringgit has lost its value by at least 40 per cent. A country which enjoyed an average 8 per cent growth rate for the past one decade and was about to earn the status of a developed nation soon after the beginning of the 21st century, now finds itself in the grip of recession. The bailout attempts by IMF and World Bank experts have failed to normalise the health of the patient. Mr Mahathir Mohammed, the Prime Minister and architect of modern Malaysia, realised that he was getting too old to steer the former Asian Tiger on the path of high growth and discovered that there was someone among his lieutenants who could be groomed to take over the reins of power as and when he would wish to say goodbye. That someone was Mr Anwar Ibrahim. A seasoned politician, Mr Ibrahim was made the Deputy Prime Minister and allowed to anchor the economic boat of his country. It was clear that if all went well the next Prime Minister of Malaysia would be Mr Anwar Ibrahim. And with this began the guesswork whether he would allow the kind of economic reform the World Bank-IMF duo had been dictating to Third World countries. Calculations were also being made about what kind of a head of government he would emerge, specially in comparison with his then mentor, Mr Mahathir Mohammed. In the meantime, an unnerving development for the Malaysian Prime Minister occurred in the neighbourhood. President Suharto of Indonesia was thrown out of power by his own protege, Mr B.J. Habibie. Now was the time for Mr
Mahathir Mohammed to act lest he too should meet the fate
of his Indonesian counterpart. The 72-year-old Malaysian
ruler was unwilling to shun power so early or perhaps
never. After all, he has been ruling this Asian giant
like a dictator all these years. Dictators, as the world
knows, die in saddle or have to be removed by force. Mr
Ibrahim was fast acquiring a stature which could not be
tolerated by Mr Mahathir Mohammed, specially when the
former had shown that he had differing perceptions on
political and economic issues. Thus Mr Mahathir Mohammed
struck against him to finish him off politically and
otherwise. This happened on September 2, and since then
Malaysia has been witnessing anti-government and
pro-Ibrahim demonstrations. Mr Ibrahim has a great number
of supporters in the ruling United Malay National
Organisations youth wing, and they are giving much
strength to what has come to be known as a reform
movement under the leadership of Mr Ibrahims
wife, Aziza, till her husband is in captivity. For how
long will the sacked Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia be
in jail? Nothing can be said with certainty as he has
been detained under the Internal Security Act which
empowers the authorities to detain him for an indefinite
period without the framing of charges or trial. He has
also been charged with sodomy as part of an official
campaign to make him unacceptable by society under any
circumstances. Whatever happens to Mr Ibrahim, he will be
remembered by history to have given birth to an open
political opposition movement the Malaysians needed so
badly. |
Vajpayee regimes 200 days WE lack experience and often ideas on what to do, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said candidly when I asked him to go over the 200 days of his government and point out its achievements. And as if he was trying to pinpoint the fault, he said, the bureaucracy is a problem. He found it strong and entrenched. It was not a formal interview, just a conversation that lasted about an hour. He was beaming with good health, radiant in the matching mustard kurta, dhoti and jacket he wore. He was relaxed, often laughing. Not even once during my stay with him did I get the feeling that he was not well. Why were there doubt about your health? I asked. It is medias doing, he said. Television and other cameras catch me in such a posture as would support their thesis of ailment. But this is not the first time that ugly rumours against Mr Vajpayee are afloat. His own partymen and ministers have tried to pull him down in the past. During the Janata government (1977-79), when he handled successfully the portfolio of foreign affairs, a whispering campaign was initiated against him in the North to malign his character. I will not be surprised if the same people are at their game once again. Mr Vajpayee stands shoulders above his colleagues in the government and in the RSS parivar. They cannot match him in popularity. The next best thing they think they can do is to defame him so that some people somewhere may be taken in by the lies they spread. But he did not seem ruffled. Even when I asked about the differences between him and some BJP leaders, Mr Vajpayee kept quiet. He looked to me as if he wanted to say something. Still he did not. I came straight to the topic of his governments rule of 200 days and asked him what he considered was his biggest achievement since he assumed power. He thought for a while and said: The Cauvery water agreement. People have welcomed it, in fact, everyone. Even AIADMK chief Jayalalitha came round to appreciate it, although she was critical in the beginning. He took a long breath and said that at least one problem was out of the way. He would like to sort out some other pending issues like Kashmir and the Northeast. On the Northeast, he said the problem was that there was too much money in wrong hands. When I told him that during my visit to Kohima I found extortionists living in ministers houses, he nodded in agreement. He did not volunteer any solution on Kashmir but expected that some settlement with Pakistan would contribute to the solution. He was happy that after his meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in New York the talks on all outstanding issues, including Kashmir, would start in right earnest. It could have happened in Durban but then Nawaz Sharif could not make it to the NAM summit, said Mr Vajpayee. I only hope that they will not postpone the implementation of agreements reached earlier in other fields on the plea that the formula on Kashmirs settlement had not been found yet, said Mr Vajpayee. Whichever problems the two countries are able to sort out, the agreement should be put into operation straightaway. Mr Vajpayee recalled his meeting with Mr Sharif at Colombo. I liked him. He is a good-hearted person, he said. Mr Sharif, during the meeting at Colombo, recalled his visit to Lucknow along with Begum Nawaz Sharif. I told him that I fight the Lok Sabha election from Lucknow, Mr Vajpayee said. My feeling is that left to him, Mr Sharif would try to find a way to bury the hatchet with India. I pointed out to Mr Vajpayee that the fault of his government was that it did not contact the Opposition to evolve a consensus on important matters, something that the previous governments were doing. He disagreed with my assessment: We are talking to them all the time. What breaks the rhythm or harmony is when there are remarks by persons like Congress MP Natwar Singh. Mr Vajpayee did not mention which remark he was referring to but he was highly critical of him. Asked why Mr Nelson
Mandelas innocuous remark was played up so much, Mr
Vajpayee said that it was not his doing. In fact, after
the remark he sat with his officials and others and
decided to ignore it since the remark was too general and
had come from a tall person like Mr Mandela. At the
banquet, I only said that the Indian government supported
the speech minus the remark on Jammu and Kashmir. Nothing
beyond, said Mr Vajpayee. The following day Mr
Mandelas deputy came to offer an apology. Media
people were there and they took it up in a big way.
I personally think there was nothing in the remark
to suggest a third partys interference in
Kashmir. After having visited Aligarh a few days earlier and learning about the extra-constitutional doings of UP Chief Minister Kalyan Singhs son, I told Mr Vajpayee that it was horrifying to find corruption at high places and spreading among their children. I told him that sons were using their fathers name to make money. Mr Vajpayee expressed his helplessness. We should accept it as the fact of life. None can do anything about it, he said. Commenting on the Bofors kickbacks, he said the probe was going on but Rajiv Gandhis name was not there. The evidence collected so far was weak for a court case. The only sustainable evidence was against Italian national Quattrocchi. His name was already out. Relations with Washington, Mr Vajpayee said, have improved and we should be having good results. I do not know if the present situation in America will come in the way. He was, however, sorry to note that the USA told Russia not to sell weapons to India. The Russians have confirmed it to us, he said. (The America Embassy in Delhi issued a contradiction to say that America never told Russia to stop selling arms to India.) Mr Vajpayee had a good word for the economy. The fact that the country had been able to sustain itself after sanctions, and the currency crash in South-East Asia showed that we are doing very well. He said the price factor bothered him. But otherwise the economy was looking up. Foreign investors, according to him, were coming in. He was highly pleased with the response to the Resurgent India Bonds. We could have collected more if we had extended the period. Reminded of the Babri Masjid episode, Mr Vajpayee said that he wanted the matter to be settled through the court. We have again approached the judiciary to decide the matter quickly. He assured me that his party would accept the judgement whatever it was. At one stage, we had persuaded even the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), he said. He was unhappy that the police had begun to take sides. The kar sewaks did not demolish the mosque, it was the police, he said. In the same context, he bemoaned the role of the police in the Mumbai riots. But he had not liked the Justice Srikrishna report. It did not take into consideration the bomb blasts. A bit one-sided report, he said. I wanted to bring to his
notice the way M.F. Hussain, the painter was being
hounded by the RSS parivar. But once I saw Hussains
painting in his room, I kept quiet. Maybe, this is his
way of telling people, including those associated with
the VHP, on which side he was in the campaign against
Hussain. |
IMF seeks control of world economy THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) was part of a 1944 agreement by the major capitalist powers. Its role was to facilitate convertible exchange by providing temporary assistance to countries which had depleted their foreign exchange reserves. This allowed them to pursue high growth and full employment through a low interest rate policy. It was an era when capital controls were permitted and the IMF was actually mandated to ask for such controls if deemed either necessary or desirable. The IMF, it appears, has never requested capital controls nor suspended credits even when there was a large or sustained outflow of capital. For most of the Cold War period its importance as an emergency lender took second place to official grants and credits designed as much for political as for economic advantage. With the advent of commercial bank lending to Third World countries, and the increasing deregulation and globalisation of financial services, the IMF has abandoned its raison detre almost totally. Instead of a lender of last resort, it has become the enforcer for international banks and financial institutions and performs a role comparable to the bouncer at a glitzy bar. The big banks invite Third World countries to line up for drinks on credit. But when they drink too much and exceed their credit limit the IMF takes over as an enforcement agency. Its tactics are brutal. It
refuses to allow supplicant countries to impose capital
controls. Instead it demands that they raise interest
rates to attract foreign investment. This slows the
economy and results in increased bankruptcies and high
unemployment. Governments must also reduce expenditures for health and education. Food subsidies, in most cases, have to be eliminated. Instead of growing food for its own citizens, the government is coerced into growing crops for export in order to earn the US dollars to repay the IMF. It was this kind of a Draconian policy which led me to ask, in a book that I published in 1996, if the IMF had not outlived its usefulness. Since then I have come to the conclusion that it has. It would be a great boon for the world to wind it up and turn its assets over to the World Bank to use partly for debt forgiveness to the worlds poorest countries, including a number of African countries, and partly to provide a massive amount of capital for micro-banking which would offer hope and opportunity to millions of impoverished people worldwide. As ours is not a world of logic and common sense, however, one has to assume that the ideal is unlikely to happen in the short run and that it is more profitable to deal with more likely scenarios. The IMFs current policy line stands the original Bretton Woods on its head. Instead of recommending or at least permitting capital controls to mitigate the consequences of massive inflows and outflows of capital, it takes the opposite position. It does this on the pretext that global financial markets reduce the cost of capital and permit a better allocation of resources worldwide. This neo-classical assumption is refuted by the actual trends since the 1970s. Removing capital controls has opened the floodgates to an accelerating volume of financial flows. World trade, by contrast, has little more than doubled. The explosive growth of cross-currency financial-flows has been paralleled by increasing volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates and by sharply rising real interest rates. Instead of reducing the cost of capital, it has become more expensive. International bank lending also surged many times faster than economic activity. The IMF bailouts only exacerbate the situation. The 1995 Mexican bailout sowed the seeds of the current Asian crisis. The assurance that the IMF will ride to the rescue encourages international bankers and speculators to make still riskier loans. They escape the consequences of their actions while the costs of their excesses are socialised and picked up by taxpayers at large. In the face of all the evidence it is more than astounding that the IMF with the active encouragement of the Clinton administration is now pressing for broad new powers. The IMF is seeking global authority over the ability of national governments to control capital inflows and outflows, including the power to require member-countries to commit to full capital account liberalisation.TWNF |
A tempting crash course THE West Bengal Vedic Academy will hold a 10-day crash course for priests so that there are no flaws in the rituals during this years Durga Puja celebrations. The academy had noticed that incorrect pronunciation of hymns, ignorance of the scriptures and rituals have not been appreciated by both scholars and devotees. At the end of the 10-day session there will be a written test and viva voce. This is a commendable venture for the private coaching academies as it will give them an opportunity to widen their network from the existing monotonous old courses of the universities, entrance tests for all types of jobs in government, semi-government and private organisations. My persistent persuasion to a friendly NRI, who is the owner of a cluster of coaching academies scattered all over the country, with some attractive, alluring and fascinating suggestions to jump into this new technical and specialised area, has been successful. The courses will be rooted in rich religious legacy and will be supplemented with modern day scientific developments. Job talks, job demonstrations and the use of audio visual equipments will be part of the course. A pocket-size publication containing correct pronunciation of difficult words in Hindi and Roman scripts by an eminent and distinguished scholar will be a helpbook of the course. It may be mentioned that the author of this publication has been invited by a foreign-based academy to educate their new turn-coats in this profession. The fundamental approach will be to divide the crash course into different kinds of rituals to make it easy for every candidate to grasp. It is likely that someone may be interested in specialising in the rituals of marriage ceremony, the other in opening and foundation-laying ceremonies and some elderly candidate in the last rites. It will, therefore, not be necessary for every candidate to go through the entire course except the one he intends to specialise in. A set of guess papers for the written test and viva voce will be published, which will be a guarantee for 100 per cent success. This and the pocket helpbook of correct pronunciation will be given without any extra charge to those candidates who pay for the entire crash course in lump sum. In order to catch the
international market the academy will have its own
website on the Internet. My NRI friend, because of his
rich business experience, insists on issuing some catchy
TV advertisement and approach the cable TV network.
Again, my suggestion to contact Kapil Dev for permission
to use his popular slogan with a slight twist at the end
to make it Yehi hai right choice, pandit jee
has completely won him as this will have a lasting and
sparkling impact all over. |
Portrait of a sick society WHAT is the historical constant and variable in the domain of nations and empires? Everywhere one finds certain recurrent factors, though not in the same forms: the desire to conquer and coerce in conflict with the yearning for equality and individual liberty; the cry for order on the one hand and for justice on the other. But the paradox of our age is that the empires of today desire to conquer and coerce in the name of liberty and justice: That was the case with the USSR. America is the great empire of our times. It holds it through bluff, bluster and blackmail. China is an incipient one. If the Soviet Union paid a high price for the justice it sought, then the world is paying a great deal more for the kind of order the American empire is trying to impose on the world. And this American vision of the world order is not even a unified one. It is a vision fragmented by interests above all of the affluent. A sense of reality is missing, but only reality can save America and the world. America over-estimates the power of human contrivances and under-estimates the power of tradition and the irrational in men. Thus, it over-estimated its capacity to mould the world and failed to understand the most profound movement of this century that of national liberation. The open society of America is also a sick society. It prefers to be the robber rather than the cop. The robber is so clever it says. With conmen and counterfeiters, gangsters and maniacs, setting at naught the efforts of centuries to guarantee orderly life, America is raw and primitive. It is sick with its importance abroad, sick with surfeit at home and sick because it has no purposive ideology to offer its young. But what is producing this crop of maniacs and unstable characters in this society? It is because it has no satisfying goal. Prosperity is not the sum total of human yearnings. The American lonely crowd (Reisman) spends its time in the mad rat-race of the affluent society (Galbraith) with a philosophy conditioned by the organisation man, that one can only agree with Hannah Arendt when she says that Americans are mere slaves of the production process. And it is this slavery that produces recurrent spasms and revolts. The American pioneers made deals with the Devil himself, like Tom Walker, paying the usual price, but the Americans of today fail to understand when the poorer nations of Asia and Africa threaten to make a similar deal, not of course with the Devil, but with their own destiny. They are prepared to gamble with their destiny, by pushing it a little too fast. The metaphor of American politics is of an immense journey, of a wagon train (American imagery). The goal may be and evergreen valley. The leaders are at the head of this long procession. They only know what lies ahead. But do they? Between the personal frailties of the incumbent President and the public purpose of the presidency, there is a wide gap. And that is not always determined by the occupants of the White House, but by the unspoken ambition of the ruling class and the giant corporations. It is true that a Roosevelt or Kennedy might transcend the limitations of their society. But they were no great visionaries. They were men ill at ease with the broad phrascologies, purposes and meanings of human civilisation. The American society is
still thriving, but it is sick within. It is the modern
Babylon. It frightens nations by its awesome power. And
yet it must cry out its heart one day that it wasted its
years of power and affluence only to hold the world in
its thrall. American society is also the deafest. Its government is deaf by design and its people are deaf by ignorance. America listens no more, not even to the sanest of words. And a large part of the world has grown dumb before this giant, some out of fear, some for the sake of favours. You cannot reason with America just as you cannot reason with a tiger. It shall not be said of America, as Thucydides did of the Greeks, that we shall be the wonder of the world, not only of the men today but of after times. When America bows out of the world stage and that day is not far off there shall be nothing to recall it by except the memory of a nightmare, of its relentless pursuit of wealth that twisted and warped the destiny of mankind. The American Presidents always appeared larger than life because it is part of the mythology surrounding America that they (Presidents) should appear in the heroic mould taming the wild continent by their sheer will. And yet the private pathology and the predilections of the incumbents in the White House are too obvious to be missed by the men of their age and have come down to us through anecdotes and apocrypha. The American Presidents have no private life, that it was all open so we believed. That is, till Monica Lewinsky gave us the intimate pornographic details of Clintons sexual perversions. Yet how did he dodge the ever wakeful eyes of the American secret service, the three headed Cereberus, which kept watch at the presidential door? But, then, Clinton is known as the artful dodger ever since he evaded the draft. The American Presidents have inherited the mantle of the Imperium of the Roman Caesars. Of the first President, Washington, it was said that he was pious like Numa, just like Aristides and temperate like Epicteus There is need to protect such great personages from Cassius and Casca, and even from brother Brutus. If Cinna, the poor poet, gets his eyes gouged out for having the name of a conspirator, even that was unavoidable. It is all part of the price which the worlds people pay to keep the American myth alive that the Presidents of America are men of heroic dimension. Even in prayer, a secret service agent is not allowed to bow his head when he is guarding the President of the United States, so boasts a secret service agent. And yet when the pants were down, Clinton appeared no more than a common chap, and a vulgar one at that, and his enemies promptly pounced on him to parade him naked on the streets of America. That is the gap between the claim and reality. But it does not end here. The world is also called upon to pay a price to keep the American nation in being, in health and might, for we are told that the American way of life is what is best for mankind. There is no debate here on democracy, on the right of people to choose the form of government they like. It is this conviction of the superiority of their way of life that gives the Americans their easy gait and confidence and the swagger that comes from the feeling of power. That they (at least some) have realised the American dream has gone into their head. They believe that they are a chosen people to guide the world! And yet when Lewinsky opened the zippergate, she found that there is nothing divine there (only a pathetic creature) except the common libido that brought Adam and Eve to ruin and banishment from Paradise. The tragedy of our times
is that more and more societies are going sick and they
are more often led by men who are sicklier than the men
they rule. Clinton may be the President of the most
powerful nation in the world, but he didnt have the
commonsense to realise that he should not let his libido
loose while he is at the Oval Office. Can we entrust the
destiny of mankind to such men? |
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