Agni clears fire test
AGNI II forges a vital link in the nuclear weapons system. Pokhran II gave the country the technological capability to assemble nuclear bombs of varying explosive power and the Sunday testing provided a genuine intermediate range missile to mount the bomb and fire it.

Wrong rail track?
WHO is responsible for the poor state of health of the Indian Railways? The popular view holds politicians responsible for the current mess. It is indeed true that just about every politician wants a Shatabdi service for his constituency.

Himachal transport policy
ALTHOUGH many shortcomings can be pointed out in the new transport policy of Himachal Pradesh, tabled in the Assembly last week, it is a step in the right direction.

TIES WITH USA IN NEW SETTING
by O. P. Sabherwal
CONTINUITY of foreign policy is a sound precept and an accepted norm of diplomacy. But there are exceptions to this rule: exceptions where the continuation of policies takes the country backwards, or keeps it stuck in a rut. Such is the case with Indo-US relations in today’s fast changing world — when muscle power and technology, diplomacy and economics interact to create a new foreign policy brand.

Govt’s expenditure management
by M. G. Devasahayam
IT has been public knowledge that fiscal profligacy and financial indiscipline indulged in by the Central and state governments have caused severe strain on the nation’s economy.

Wanted — code of ethics in coalition politics
by P. Raman
WHENEVER MINDLESS manipulations take over politics, all normal political processes get blurred. Suddenly, one finds assessments made on the available parameters go haywire. Defectors have their logic and those who engineer defections and splits will propound their own theories to justify their respective survival strategy.

Hand that rocks the boat rules by remote
A politician was once described by someone as a person who rocks the boat in the midstream and then convinces the fellow-passengers that it is only he who can save them from the impending storm. This definition, combined with the age-old adage-hand that rocks the cradle rules the world-has produced a “modern adage, a la Jayalalitha-hand that rocks the boat rules by remote.

Poetic injustice
by L. H. Naqvi
I MUST confess that I have a soft heart. Any act of perceived injustice makes me shed copious tears. In this case I may even have given myself the licence to kill had a colourful forefather not sold the family shotgun for an evening of pleasure with his favourite concubine.

75 Years Ago

Indian colonies committee
BOTH on account of its composition and for other reasons public opinion in India has never expected any substantial good to come out of the labour of the Indian Colonies Committee.

Agni clears fire test

AGNI II forges a vital link in the nuclear weapons system. Pokhran II gave the country the technological capability to assemble nuclear bombs of varying explosive power and the Sunday testing provided a genuine intermediate range missile to mount the bomb and fire it. Missiles are the preferred delivery system, although small-sized bombs can be dropped from an aircraft. In fact, Pokhran II made Agni II inevitable and work started almost immediately, breaking a five-year freeze of the Agni project. Nor was there any sustained or serious international pressure on this country against reviving the missile programme. As early as last July, the USA came around to appreciate India’s stand but requested it to keep the development within “declared intentions”. (This has been the US reaction to the test firing on Sunday.) In the middle of December last Prime Minister Vajpayee informed Parliament of the status of the project and declared that the objective was to build minimum nuclear deterrence without posing any threat to non-nuclear neighbours and by adhering to the promise of not resorting to the first use of these weapons of mass destruction. He repeated these assurances in his television address on Sunday. The launch was originally scheduled for March 7, but the after-effects of the bus ride to Lahore made it look incongruous. The heat of the blast-off would have vaporised the euphoria, and anti-normalisation warriors in Pakistan would have latched on to the missile to do their job. So the date was reworked and April 11 was chosen. Still unfazed, Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz, an original critic of closer ties with this country, has revived the old bogey of an Indian military threat.

All these background details are necessary to cut through the misleading verbiage of politicians. The Prime Minister was sober, heaping well-deserved praise on the scientists and soothingly reiterating the peaceableness of this country. Not so Defence Minister Fernandes or Information and Broadcasting Minister Mahajan. The former invented international pressure and talked of the government’s will to stand up to it. He darkly hinted at earlier regimes giving in on vital national security concerns. His parading of patriotic virility is not backed by facts. Mr Mahajan went one step further and claimed that given this nationalistic achievement, toppling the BJP-led government would be an anti-national crime! Technology demonstrators like Agni missiles are not a one-week, one-month or one-year project; they take years to fructify and the date of firing depends on weather and several other conditions. It is ignorance pure and simple to link the firing with the current crisis or read its impact in terms of political gains and losses. The Agni II launching speaks of very high and dedicated technological skill; but the political prattle has hardly risen above immaturity. It is amazing how a narrow political vision can blind minds.

Wrong rail track?

WHO is responsible for the poor state of health of the Indian Railways? The popular view holds politicians responsible for the current mess. It is indeed true that just about every politician wants a Shatabdi service for his constituency. Of course, it would be unfair to put all the blame at the door of politicians but cares a damn about who pays for the luxury. Had the railway bureaucracy provided correct inputs to the ministry for formulating long-term and short-term strategies for improving passenger amenities and freight collection the situation may not have been as dismal as it is today. Take, for instance, the hype over the electrification programme of the Indian Railways. Global experience shows that it is bad economics and in a manner of speaking the passengers are having to pay for the profligacy of the railways. Those who understand the nitty gritty of the basic requirements of an efficient surface transport network say that the country could have saved a fortune had the Indian Railways given preference to dieselisation over electrification of the vast network. Experts are convinced, after studying the cost-benefit data of the two systems, that India should have followed the global example of replacing steam engines with diesel locomotives. The overall cost of running a diesel system, compared to electric engines, is 25 per cent less. In simple terms, there would have been no need to pass on the burden of electrification of the Indian Railways to the passengers and the freight rates too would have been competitive.

Although the upgradation of the fleet of nearly 3,000 diesel locomotives is long overdue, experts say that the performance level of the “old iron horse” is better than that of the latest generation electric engine which costs a fortune. The railway bureaucracy privately admits that laying of electric tractions is 50 times more expensive than investment in the upgradation of the diesel locomotives. In estimates made for 1998-99 an internal railways document pointed out that an amount of Rs 340 crore could have been saved if only passenger trains were worked by diesel engines because of recession in the global oil market. The primary reason for the shortfall in the freight targets set by the railways too has something to do with the prohibitive cost of electrification. Of course, the truck operators are not complaining because the Indian Railways loss is their gain. It is still not too late for the railway bureaucracy to learn from the experience of countries where the road sector plays second fiddle to the rail network in the matter of goods movement. The Union Government has promised to expand the road sector through upgradation of the existing national highways to global standards and construction of superfast expressways. Improvement in the condition of Indian roads may result in a sharp drop in the virtually captive passenger traffic of the railways. It is clear that the Indian Railways should follow the US model and go in for large-scale de-electrification so that it is able to raise resources for improvements in key areas like signalling and safety and make the passenger fare and freight rate structures more competitive.

Himachal transport policy

ALTHOUGH many shortcomings can be pointed out in the new transport policy of Himachal Pradesh, tabled in the Assembly last week, it is a step in the right direction. If implemented faithfully, it can bring about some urgently needed improvement in the public transport system in the hill state. The bus service in Himachal Pradesh is a shambles at the moment. There has been some improvement over the years no doubt, but this betterment is hardly commensurate with the half century of independence. There are still very many areas in the interior where there are either no buses at all or barely a bus a day. With a phenomenal increase in population, the number of passengers has gone up exponentially. Small wonder that on many Himachal routes, one sees more persons on the roofs of the buses than inside them. Besides causing unbearable harassment to the passengers, the inadequacy of the bus service has also led to very many overloading-related accidents. One key element in the new transport policy is the proposal to introduce tax-free routes. That is perhaps the only way to attract private operators to run buses on hill routes. The tax concession is to be initially given for five years and will be available either on unmetalled roads or the roads where there is no bus service or only a single bus service. The participation of the private sector is necessary because the government is just not in a position to provide enough buses. The government buses will thus be spared for inter-state routes. While the scheme seems attractive enough on paper, it will have to be supplemented with sympathetic attitude towards private operators. Many of them complain of the corrupt ways of the police and transport personnel. The government must ensure that those in a supervisory position do not treat the private operators as milch cows. At the same time, it needs to be ensured that the private operators too do not fleece the passengers. The State Transport Development Council which is proposed to be established should look into all these details with an open mind.

Another key element of the policy is the decision to introduce luxury coaches to connect all district headquarters and to start a 15-seater Mudrika service within the limits of municipal committees and notified area committees. It is mainly because of the inadequacy of the public transport system that many people are forced to use their private vehicles. The resultant pollution has played havoc with the verdant environment of Himachal Pradesh. Any improvement in the situation will not only be in the interest of the public but also of the government because it can earn considerable revenue while offering user-friendly services.

TIES WITH USA IN NEW SETTING
Effectiveness of India’s clout
by O. P. Sabherwal

CONTINUITY of foreign policy is a sound precept and an accepted norm of diplomacy. But there are exceptions to this rule: exceptions where the continuation of policies takes the country backwards, or keeps it stuck in a rut. Such is the case with Indo-US relations in today’s fast changing world — when muscle power and technology, diplomacy and economics interact to create a new foreign policy brand.

Imperceptibly — perhaps irrationally — Indo-US relations are headed towards a new elevated interaction, gradually shedding the style and agendas of the past. It is ironical that this new phase has been triggered by the Indian nuclear tests of May 11 and 13 last year which initially elicited a ferocious reaction from Washington. The eight rounds of Talbott-Jaswant Singh talks are a piece of this new style Indo-US engagement. Closed-door negotiations and bargaining are laced by public postures which continue to stress the declared fundamentals of US and Indian foreign policy. This new style diplomacy is obviously necessary because the usual channels have been found too rigid and unsuitable for a volatile agenda.

It has been no smooth climb to the present phase of Indo-US interaction littered as it still is with plenty of potholes. The Indian nuclear blasts in themselves caused a wild response from the USA: Washington’s global strategic scheme had been rudely shaken. It became clear that the American administration would not easily accept India’s gate crashing into the nuclear club with the claim of a nuclear weapon status.

Thus, in the first round of response, a series of American actions followed which showed imbalance in search of a stick to punish India without itself getting hurt in the process. One such was the blacklisting of 200-odd Indian institutions and corporate bodies in two phases, which included the Tata Memorial Centre, India’s preeminent cancer treatment hospital, the Gas Turbine Research Establishment, Bangalore, the Directorate of Estate Management, Mumbai, the Institute for Systems Studies and Analysis, Delhi; the Agricultural Research Unit, Almora, and, of course, all major R&D institutions. Along with these came the denial of visas to eminent scientists like the AEC Chairman, Dr R. Chidambaram, the IGCAR Director, Dr Placid Rodriguez, and the Special Materials scientist, Dr Baldev Raj, in a farcical bid to isolate them from the community of world scientists. And to cap it all, came the imposition of all-embracing economic sanctions against the Indian government and all Indian corporate bodies and institutions, seeking to carry the battle against this country’s economic growth to the World Bank, the IMF and other international financial institutions.

The attempt to keep Indian scientists out of international scientific councils proved to be a farce since it was found unworkable, and was repudiated by America’s own scientists. Without India, organisations like the International Atomic Energy Agency would lose all credibility. Similarly, the move to quarantine Indian organisations such as cancer treatment institutions, agricultural and modern systems management bodies — in fact, all Indian institutions which have a scientific approach makes the USA a laughing stock in the Third World, more at home with Talibanism insofar as developing countries are concerned.

But it was a different story with economic sanctions and export blockade of all variety of equipment and components in the name of sensitive industrial uses. Contrary to the Indian government’s claim, the cascading effect of the projects that have been hit by American sanctions as well as the slowdown of new economic projects, particularly those in the power sector, infrastructure and a wide range of industries, can hardly be minimised. The damage could run into many thousand crores, while the extent of slow down of economic recovery may be difficult to quantify in monetary terms.

At the other end, the USA has also begun to realise that its own multiple losses from imposing the sanctions on India are considerable — direct export losses as well as the loss of clientele to its other business rivals. Along with this, hitting the economic growth of India is causing immense damage to global economy and holding up international economic recovery. The political damage the USA suffers by alienating a vast population under a democratic regime is perhaps even more telling. But putting its super power strategic interests above all else, the USA can afford to hold on in the hope that it has the power and immense economic-political clout to bring India round to its terms on the contentious nuclear issue.

In this backdrop, the question one should ask is what brings a change in stance of the USA from its ferocious look to a sweet reasonable posture. Is it to cajole India with minor concessions for the same strategic aims in the nuclear realm which it could not obtain through economic sanctions and political threats? A supplementary to the same question is: what is the clout that India can muster to face the world’s sole super power? Has India enough leverage to engage the USA in confidentiality-locked talks for a fair deal on the nuclear issues, obtaining a status of equality with other nuclear weapon states?

The answer to the last two questions is in the positive. Which also provides the raison d’etre for a change in the American stance to one of reasonableness and dialogue.

There are two major components in the clout that India can wield in its interaction with the USA. In the first place is American realisation that the Indian tests demonstrate the triumph of India’s science and technology, and that its sustained efforts over the last three decades to stiffle India’s nuclear capability growth have entirely failed. One notices that the change in American stance towards India’s nuclear concerns has progressed as feedback poured in from American think-tanks and nuclear technologies. The first shift in American postures came with the feedback from its nuclear monitoring organisations which for full six months were engaged seriously in assessing the worth of Indian nuclear technology and the extent to which Indian scientists’s claims on the two-day tests — the thermo-nuclear test in particular — were justified. American monitoring organisations as well as the reliable CIA scientific assessors (some of them hold key positions in the IAEA which has complete know-how of Indian nuclear capability) have given full marks to the Indian nuclear scientists and hold the May 11 and 13 tests to have been fully successful in all the objectives laid out.

This poses several serious questions for the American State Department. The most critical is India’s place in the American non-proliferation objectives woven round the CTBT and the FMCT. It now becomes clear that without India’s active participation and backing, the FMCT will be unrealisable, and minus the fissile material cut-off, the CTBT will be a lame-duck arrangement in the American non-proliferation bid.

There is, perhaps, inadequate realisation of India’s clout on this score. The fact is that India’s accession to the CTBT does not affect its clout or negotiating strength to win a place of honour as a nuclear weapon capability state, and bring about an immediate end to the sanctions regime. The American effort, on the other hand is aimed at avoiding these awkward aspects and preventing them from surfacing. The best way to do so is to keep the Indian side engrossed in the game of phased lifting of the sanctions, with Indian accession to the CTBT being followed by a preemptive termination of its fissile materials capability.

So far, the quid pro quo offered is a limited de facto, not de jure, recognition of the Indian weapon capability. The assessment that Indian nuclear scientists and R&D institutions were ahead of all others in the developing world, even China, has raised American apprehensions about India catching up with futuristic trends for laser-ignited fusion weapons bypassing the CTBT and the FMCT. From this arises the demand, articulated by the American Ambassador, and subsequently by Mr Talbott himself, about the limits of Indian deterrence and transparency of its nuclear weapons. It would be worth examining whether the USA is prepared to strike a matching deal with India if the latter offers its earnest cooperation in genuine non-proliferation moves — to begin with the CTBT and the FMCT.

The second important clout that India can wield in the ongoing talks with the USA is the economic leverage which is often minimised. India does not, of course, have a trade surplus with the USA as China has. Nor is the Indian foreign exchange reserve anything like that of China. India does not have a steady and consistent economic reform and growth policies. What then is Indian economic clout?

The answer comes from Dean R. O’Hare, Chairman of the US-India Business Council who said during a recent tour of South India that India was emerging as a global economic player in the “leading growth sectors of the 21st century”. In a technology-driven world, this statement counts for a lot. Dean O’Hare obviously referred to Indian strides in info-tech, besides the front runner laser and nuclear technologies. The Indian strides in software are a case in point, and software exports promise to soar to some eight billion dollars in the next few years.

An American columnist put the matter in the right perspective when he noted that without India, their information technology industry — now the largest sector of the US economy — could be in a soup. One-fourth of the world’s programmers are Indian. And according to a recent publication from the University of California, one-third of wages paid in the entire IT industry goes to Indian infotech technicians working in the USA. India’s own infotech industry and the government know that the US demand for Indian programming has become massive. That explains the paradox that just when the American ire over the Indian tests was being voiced, Mr Clinton decided to support an increase in the quota for Indians who wanted to immigrate in response to pressures from high-technology companies and to a Department of Commerce report which estimated a shortage of over one million programmers, particularly in the light of the danger from the Y2K menace that could be a disaster. That also explains why within two months of the imposition of the sanctions against India, the US Congress passed a bill increasing the quota of H-1 work visas from 65,000 to 90,000 this year, and to 115,000 by the year 2002, a large part of which would benefit Indian infotech experts in the USA.

This is a clout which Indian negotiators have hardly taken into account, just as there has been inadequacy in pressing home India’s indispensable status in taking the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty to fruition, and in seeking a quid pro quo. Obviously, nuclear diplomacy in the new world setting cannot be divorced from America’s technological and strategic pursuits; also of the major powers. Political and muscle power has got tied in a close knot with technology and economic pursuits in the world of today. The new moorings of diplomacy are all about this. To engage the USA successfully, without getting sidetracked, it is indispensable that these facets are kept in view.

Govt’s expenditure management
by M. G. Devasahayam

IT has been public knowledge that fiscal profligacy and financial indiscipline indulged in by the Central and state governments have caused severe strain on the nation’s economy. Nevertheless, a recent Business Line observation that “the finances of the state governments today are in dire straits, with several frontline states on the verge of bankruptcy” is poignant. What is more disturbing is the contention that “despite warnings by the RBI and the Centre, the majority of the state continue to squander resources on no-productive populist schemes and the proportion of their development expenditure has been falling sharply”.

It is obvious that the Central government, the RBI and the Planning Commission have failed to rein in the states’ expenses and the annual budgets are not of much use, since there is practically no mechanism for the evaluation of expenditure in terms of norms or expectations built in as part of budgetary exercise. The root cause for “financial bankruptcy” of the states and the fiscal distress of the Centre is the extreme inefficiency in monetary and tax management as well as very low levels of employee productivity. Added to this is the budgetary profligacy and extravagant expenditure indulged in unproductive areas, and the high interest burden on borrowings to meet these expenses.

It has been specifically reported that three frontline states — Punjab, UP and Maharashtra — have virtually declared bankruptcy and many other states are not way behind. In fact, the Planning Commission has officially communicated to the Prime Minister that most state governments will fail to raise the necessary resources to fund their 1998-99 plans, and that “they might indulge in fund diversion on a big scale to meet their day-to-day requirements”. The commission has also pointed out that “most state plans are funded almost entirely through borrowings; the state governments’ own funds are generally negligible and in some cases even negative”.

Yet, as pointed out by the editorial, “it appears that the gravity of the situation has still not been realised by the state governments”. It looks as if governments have virtually lost control over expenditure, both its magnitude and quality in the sense of prioritisation because budgeting is all mortgaged to the entrenched vested interests and the political/electoral process. The Union Finance Minister’s proposal to set up an Expenditure Reforms Commission to bring order and discipline in public expenditure while institutions like the Public Accounts Committee, the Planning Commission, the Comptroller & Auditor-General of India and the Reserve Bank of India have failed to achieve this, does not carry conviction. What is needed is not a committee/commission approach, but a professional diagnosis and an action plan that can be built into the budgetary process of Central and state governments, and the plan approval exercise of the Planning Commission. Such an action plan should be brief, lean and mean, and not huge volumes or report presented with all fanfare, only to gather dust.

An exercise of this nature should take into account the following realities and imperatives:

µ That the conventional methods of economy in expenditure and cost control by government departments are no more than cosmetic exercises. In fact, such farcical steps only impinge on whatever little development is taking place since the axe actually falls on them only. There is need to bring about major paradigm changes in the very ethos and concept of public expenditure (PE) vis-a-vis public welfare (PW).

µ As a critical step towards disciplining PE, there is need to establish direct and quantifiable relationship among PE, PW, tax, subsidies, public services performance (PSP) and employment generation (EG), and clearly lay down performance parameters, the absence of which is encouraging government functionaries to run amuck with the tax-payer’s money. For this purpose, matrix need to be developed in the following areas: (a) Public service performance/productivity standards depending upon the nature and scope of services rendered by the government departments and agencies. (b) Tax burden to subsidy ratio. (c) Public expenditure to public welfare employment generation ratio.

The “fund & figure” approach, wherein the “efficiency levels” of most departments are evaluated by the quantum of funds allocated and the figures of “amounts spent”, particularly in the month of March, rather than any performance or productivity parameters, is both obnoxious and archaic. If the Indian economy is to get out of the mendicant syndrome and become productive, there is immediate need to lay down performance and productivity norms for each and every government department/agency, and mandate it into the budgetary and plan approval process. A standing national performance review should design and lay down a comprehensive evaluation process and do performance/productivity review of all major revenue collecting and money spending departments/ undertakings on a continuous basis.

In line with the practice obtaining in the USA, the Vice-President of India should be the leader of this review team. Only such a high-powered review would impart status and seriousness to expenditure management in the government, without which the fiscal system may face collapse in the near future.

Poetic injustice
by L. H. Naqvi

I MUST confess that I have a soft heart. Any act of perceived injustice makes me shed copious tears. In this case I may even have given myself the licence to kill had a colourful forefather not sold the family shotgun for an evening of pleasure with his favourite concubine.

The object of my boundless ire lives in distant Spain and answers to the pompous appellation of “the top judicial watchdog”. Yes, my tender heart can be spotted in all the remote parts of the global village in search of the place where poets dispense justice and justices write poetry.

A number of my well-wishers have offered me a one-way ticket to Ranchi or Agra to help me get out of my obsession with poetic justice. Now I can ask them to take a walk because such a man does exist — in flesh and blood. So what if he speaks Spanish.

The reason why I am not raising a toast to my good luck is because by hero is in deep trouble. The watchdog, who has aroused my killer instinct, is investigating my “poet-judge” or “judge-poet” for having issued more than 20 verdicts that rhyme or otherwise seek to entertain either with lyrics or lofty prose.

Pray, tell me is it a crime for a judge to rhyme his reasons, specially when he is called upon to perform the unpleasant task of deciding divorce petitions? In my book he was merely trying to make the parting as lyrical as possible and maybe find his 15 minutes of fame by winning a Grammy for a parting song which gives listeners the feeling of a “parting kick”.

My hero is in trouble because of the poetic reasons he gave for dismissing a request for reduced alimony from a man who re-married immediately after obtaining divorce from his first wife. In the otherwise perfectly rhymed judgement the word “concubine” crept in while referring to the second wife. Although he tried to substitute it with the more acceptable “wife”, the watchdog was not satisfied (he evidently does not believe in poetic licence).

If you have a heart that bleeds, a soul that cries and copious tears to shed, join me in the campaign for fighting for the right of unrestrained free expression for poets and justices. My hero is both a poet and a justice — although a poor judge of the linguistic preferences of the watchdog. I would even appeal to those who are ever on the lookout for species in danger of extinction to join the movement for poetic justice without limits.

I am willing to go to any length for saving him. If Spanish laws allow, even frame my forefather who actually had a concubine. Life without bad poetry and poor judgement would be so dull.

Here is a suggestion for publishers. Buy the exclusive rights to the “20 verdicts in poetry” win Booker and make your millions.

Wanted — code of ethics in
coalition politics

by P. Raman

WHENEVER MINDLESS manipulations take over politics, all normal political processes get blurred. Suddenly, one finds assessments made on the available parameters go haywire. Defectors have their logic and those who engineer defections and splits will propound their own theories to justify their respective survival strategy. Hence it is pointless to predict who will score over the other in this game of oneupmanship. If all that one hears in the Capital’s corridors of power is true, we may be heading for a revised version of the Kalyan model at the Centre.

Every one in party offices and bungalows is coming out with curious permutations and combinations to suit their fancy. They just seem to take for granted that every party could be split and every MP is up for sale provided the right kind of inducements are offered and the most suitable fixer is employed. This often goes to a ridiculous extent. Mamata Banerjee’s gender affinity is used to win over her ‘elder didi’ little realising that the tough lady has her own set of fixed agenda. Now the “chhoti didi” has been pressed to woo Mayawati.

The outcome of the present confrontation will depend on the political calculations of the regional satraps and their ability to keep their flock together. Some groups want to avert elections at any cost. Others like the Congress are sharply divided. As a party, the Congress rightly concludes that if an election is held it will substantially improve its position. This is based on its own assessment of the people’s disillusionment over the non-performance of the Vajpayee government as expressed in the recent assembly elections. This, according to them, will largely be at the cost of the ruling combine.

The BJP has already warned of fresh elections if it is defeated on the floor of the Lok Sabha. But both parties talk shy of seeking dissolution of the House and going in for fresh elections. Instead, every one wants to take the best out of the MPs’ mortal fear of elections. It is the rumblings among the MPs that leads to the creation of the veritable myth that the “people do not want” another election and the heavy financial burden on the country. In fact it is the politicians who do not want elections because they have to take another risk and big businessmen who have to advance more funds.

The common man seems to hardly bother about it. If at all, a large number of people down the line benefit from the sudden pumping of money by way of making available election vehicles, fixing publicity materials and often paid for the work. Barring some parties, the middle classes are spared of the harassment of fund collection. It comes from the business and trade who will, in any case, make use of their fruitful investment later. In any case, much of it is unaccounted money. This writer has seen how the people in middle and lower middle class colonies in cities and small towns enjoy the holiday on an election day without even bothering to go to the polling booth.

The burden on the exchequer is quite substantial. But it is not as high as many other less important heads of expenditure. If a mid-term election really helps remove political uncertainty, why should we avoid it? What is supreme is the need to preserve the people’s faith in democracy by strengthening the system and its institutions. It cannot be valued in terms of money alone. It is worth spending a few thousand crores if ugly practices like horsetrading, engineering defection and splits, underhand deals to retain the majority and secret understanding to hush up corruption and subvert democracy, could be prevented. In any case, the 12th election was a fractured verdict. It did not give a majority to any particular combine.

The Vajpayee Government has been surviving with the support of the 11 TDP MPs who were returned after fighting the BJP and its allies. These MPs were only post-poll cooption. Perennial discord marred this coalition even before the government was sworn in. Since then it has been in a state of perpetual instability. The realities of the 12th Lok Sabha has been that its arithmetic can never provide a meaningful coalition under any other dispensation without frequent hiccups from one or the other recalcitrant ally. The Congress is highly conscious of this predicament. Hence its hesitation to throw down the gauntlet.

Since the elections last March, there have been sweeping changes in Indian politics. Certain regional parties have firmed up with the BJP after the initial seat adjustments. The BJP’s policies and programmes have also undergone so much of “roll backs”. Like the abandoning of its stand on the common civil code, Ayodhya, Article 370, conversions, swadeshi, etc. The government claimed impressive achievements during the one year. If that is true, it is time for it to go in for a formal popular endorsement. Similar shifts have taken place on opposition side. Thus a fresh election can possibly be a better option both to gauge the people’s responses and to prevent blackmailing by smaller parties.

In either case, serious political parties will have to draw lessons from each of the past coalitional experiments. Each one of them was born of different situations and had faced different problems. Initially they created many myths which eventually exploded when faced with reality. For long, “outside support” was considered the biggest villain. This was mainly due to the way Rajiv Gandhi had pulled down the Chandra Shekhar Government and Sitaram Kesri did to Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral. Even former presidents have mentioned it as potentially disruptive.

It was suggested that the party which joins a government will have vested interest in its survival. But the Left, an outside supporter, had stood by V.P. Singh, Deve Gowda and Gujral even after they were ousted. The threat to the Vajpayee Government had come mainly from Jayalalitha an active participant in the ministry. Not from the two outside supporters, the TDP and Trinamool Congress. Similarly, a pre-poll alliance was considered a more durable arrangement than a post-poll tieup. Not only the Jayalalitha challenge, even the frequent shrill voices against the government by Mamata Banerjee and revolts within the Samata Party show that pre-poll alliance per se cannot ensure stability. The TDP’s constant support to the BJP government further disproves this theory.

The BJP had argued that the secret of a coalition’s success depended on the overwhelming numerical domination of the main party. The long tenure of Left governments, where the CPM has been the main party, was cited to prove this point. In the present coalition, the BJP had almost double the number of all other partners put together. Yet Atal Behari Vajpayee faced constant hostilities and blackmail from his allies which have now culminated in the present showdown. Another cultivated myth has been that the collapse of the earlier coalitions was due to the absence of an “able” leader who could give a stable government. But the Vajpayee Government’s record of cohesive functioning has been worse than all earlier coalitions, if one takes the frequency and intensity of threats from its allies.

Future coalitions will also have to learn from the dangerous precedents set by the predecessors. First, in his haste to putting together an alliance after the elections, the Prime Minister had agreed to humiliating conditions like dismissal of the state governments led by the local rivals. The Samata Party and Jayalalitha were quick to ask for the head of Laloo Prasad Yadav and Karunanidhi respectively. In fact, the Union Home Ministry had even sent a high official to get the necessary report on the law and order situation in Tamil Nadu. Future coalitions will have to guard against such misuse of powers for partisan purposes as a precondition for support.

Second, coalitions always fix a quota for constituents, ideally on the basis of their representation, The respective parties also chose their nominees for ministerships. But distribution of portfolios has always been considered the Prime Minister’s prerogative. The Prime Ministers took care to consult partners before finalising the list. But in the instant case, both Jayalalitha and Mamata Banerjee had repeatedly insisted on specific portfolios for their party and the right to give it to persons of their choice from their parties. If Vajpayee had rejected such demands, it was more due to the protests from affected leaders like Nitish Kumar and K. Ramamurthi.

Third, appeasement of the partners is done by offering a special set of central schemes for the respective states. There is nothing wrong if the states ask for such schemes. The problems come when they are drawn up only to buy support of an alliance partner. This not only short-circuits the technical aspects of the demand but also leads to complaints of partiality from the deprived states. It will given an edge to the bargainers among the alliance partners to corner all central funds. Fourth, pleasing the kith and kin of the supporting regional bosses is done by offering them favours to retain their allegiance.

Since single-party majority is going to be a mirage in the 13th Lok Sabha and even after, all major players in politics will have to adhere to a strict coalitional dharma. This can be possible only if the political parties cultivate a healthy coalitional culture. Dharma, Vajpayee might know, flows from sanskar. Such a code cannot co-exist with brinkmanship and deals. Whoever occupies South Block will have to develop healthy norms on the basis of basic honesty in dealing with others. They will have to draw up a detailed common minimum programme — not the kind of sketchy national agenda — even if took more time for finalisation. No Prime Minister can expect to perform his or her duty under the shadow of personal agenda and hidden game plans.

Hand that rocks the boat rules
by remote

A POLITICIAN was once described by someone as a person who rocks the boat in the midstream and then convinces the fellow-passengers that it is only he who can save them from the impending storm. This definition, combined with the age-old adage-hand that rocks the cradle rules the world-has produced a “modern adage, a la Jayalalitha-hand that rocks the boat rules by remote.

Amma, as she is addressed by her AIADMK admirers, will be visiting New Delhi between 12 and 20 April. No tea party is scheduled, but the storm is being felt even without teacups. Jayalalitha apparently has decided that she needs a better presence in New Delhi. The days when she was happy to rule Tamil Nadu while her Central ally ruled at the Centre are over. She wants to play a more proactive role in national politics. The AIADMK being the single largest party after the BJP, the Congress and the CPM in terms of Lok Sabha seats, she sees a better position for her than the present control-by-remote role assigned to her by her present allies. Her logic is clear, if Mulayam Singh Yadav with 17 seats can aspire to be the Prime Minister then with two more seats (and more in terms of her Tamil Nadu allies), she is better justified, after all.

The question is, will the Congress, which is a party controlled by the strong hand of its party president’s “10 Janpath” outfit, be able to gulp the dictats of Amma, if a “marriage” takes place between the AIADMK and Congress all over again? Amma’s problems with the Centre began with the Congress. And Congress’ woes in Tamil Nadu have their origins in that “divorce”.

Whatever it be, Amma’s New Delhi trip will be full of turmoils. Meanwhile, real estate agents in New Delhi are busy finding a suitable house for a VVIP from Tamil Nadu. A house in Golf Links and a farmhouse in Mehrauli owned by a leading Punjab industrialist are said to be in the shopping list. The outcome of the political upheaval notwithstanding, Amma it seems wants to come to New Delhi to stay.

A press conference that wasn’t

These days when the political temperature in the Capital is soaring after the AIADMK decided to pull out its nominees from the Union Cabinet, for the lot of scribes following the events is quite a task.

Apart from the distance, the presence of a number of parties who can matter in the final number game compounds the problem for one never knows who can turn the spotlight around.

The other day, word went around that the Telugu Desam Party was holding a Press conference. Within no time a horde of media representatives turned up at the venue, which in this case was the residence of a party MP.

It was another matter that the press meet was meant to inform regional papers about the complaint lodged by the Telugu Desam with the Election Commission regarding the “criminal background” of the Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee chief, Dr Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy.

In fact, when the TDP MPs, who drove down straight from Nirvachan Sadan to the residence of one of their colleagues, they were surprised to see an unsual gathering of media personnel. Despite initial reservations, the MPs finally obliged and reiterated the TDP continuation of support to the Vajpayee government.

Pound wise

Remember Kevin Steele, the British Airways General Manager in India, who decided to shed 50 pounds (in weight, not Sterling) off his 310-pound frame and appealed to his friends and colleagues across the world to sponsor his weight loss. The effort has been worthwhile. His novel fund-raising method fetched Rs 3 lakh. Having fasted and realised the true meaning of hunger, Kevin Steele has employed the funds on a unique project — to feed children.

Kevin Steele recently inaugurated a canteen and dining hall for the benefit of children at the Centre for Handicapped Children, Institute of Child Health in Calcutta. The Delhi-based British Airways Executive said “I am delighted that we have been able to utilise the funds in a fitting manner — for my diet and weight loss has resulted in a food facility for children”. Future plans include the introduction of a masala grinding unit to involve more students from the centre.

Sheila’s woes

The function to mark the tercentenary of founding of the Khalsa organised by the Delhi government and the Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee in the Old Secretariat evoked good response.

Apart from the Delhi MLAs along with the Chief Minister, Mrs Sheila Dikshit, those from Punjab also contributed. The PPCC Chief, Mr Amarinder Singh and his battery of workers went into details along with former MPs, Mrs Sukhbans Kaur Bhinder, Mr H S Hanspal, Mr Surinder Singla.

There was a special enclosure for former Chief Ministers. However, it was left to Mr Sahib Singh Verma and Mrs Rajinder Kaur Bhattal to do the honours, as Mr Madan Lal Khurana and Ms Sushma Swaraj did not come.

While the function went off smoothly, its aftereffects were felt in the Assembly later. So much so that slanging match between some ruling party MLAs and those on the Opposition benches resulted in a Congress MLA showing his ire on a mike which was uprooted. The problem spilled over to the next day when a determined Opposition waved published photographs showing that Mrs Sonia Gandhi had not covered her head while accepting a ‘Siropa” from the PPCC chief. The issue continued to boil before the Assembly took a break for the weekend.

(Contributed by SB, T.V. Lakshminarayan, K.V. Prasad and P.N. Andley.)

75 YEARS AGO

Indian colonies committee

BOTH on account of its composition and for other reasons public opinion in India has never expected any substantial good to come out of the labour of the Indian Colonies Committee.

As was pointed out by Mahatma Gandhi, the exclusion of such men as the Right Hon. Srinivasa Sastri, Dr Tej Bahadur Sapru and Mr C.F. Andrews from the Committee was by no means calculated to inspire public confidence in the working of that body.

The information which has just been supplied to Reuters and which the agency has duly transmitted to India is bound to confirm this attitude of the public mind in India.

“The Colonial Office,” says a Reuter telegram, “will closely consider any proposal with regard to Indians in the Colonies by the Indian Committee now in London, but in the meantime the policy of the Colonial Office is that set forth in the White Paper and repeated by Mr Thomas soon after he assumed office.”

If the Labour Government wanted to be just and fair either to itself or to India, then instead of saying this what it would have said is that “pending a discussion of the whole matter with the Indian Committee the Colonial Office is not prepared to carry out the policy set forth in the White Paper.”