May 18 cyclone leaves trail
of drought in Rajasthan
By Shubhabrata Bhattacharya
Tribune News Service

JAIPUR: Cyclones originate mostly in the Bay of Bengal and seldom in the Arabian Sea. On May 18 this year, one of the rarest of rare cyclonic depressions developed off the Saurashtra coast. Coastal Gujarat escaped the fury of a cyclonic storm as the wind direction changed and the cyclone crossed over into Pakistan. The impact of this freak of nature, however, is likely to be felt in Rajasthan, where the pattern of rainfall has been affected due to the premature showers in certain districts caused by the May 18 depression in the Arabian Sea.

The rains came early and then tapered off. There was a gap when rains were needed most — the sowing season. Both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea monsoon systems (the Aravali range in Rajasthan is the end-point of both systems) have given less than normal rainfall to Rajasthan this year.

Twentysix of the 32 districts of Rajasthan have received less than normal rainfall this year as a result of which Kharif crops have failed in large areas of the state. Rabi crops are also endangered. A severe shortage of fodder and water — both for agricultural purposes as well as human and cattle consumption — is projected in the coming months.

The effect of drought is likely to be felt by the end of December. The new millennium may see Rajasthan once again reeling under severe scarcity. Once drought sets in, only the hope of a normal monsoon, six months later, can bring back smiles on the faces of the innocent desert folk.

The Rajasthan Government, anticipating the severity of the impending scarcity, ordered collection of Girdawari (tehsildars’ report on farm conditions) ahead of time this year and the findings are appalling. Twentythree thousand four hundred and six (23,406) villages out of a total of 34,693 spread over 26 districts were found to be affected. The loss of the crops ranges between 75 per cent to 100 per cent in 18,085 villages whereas the loss occurred from 50 per cent to 74 per cent in 5,321 villages. Human population affected is estimated at 26.17 crore. The total livestock affected by the drought-like conditions is estimated at 34.5 crore.

Rajasthan is facing drought conditions in most of the districts for the second year in succession. The scanty rainfall this year has revived fears about the prolonged drought period experienced between 1984 and 1988. Rajasthan’s economy is primarily agrarian. Cattle farming is undertaken in a big way and the state is a source of supply of milk to Delhi, and its surroundings. If drought conditions persist, supply of milk may be affected next summer.

Rajasthan is known for its Nagauri bullocks and Rathi, Tharparkar and Kankrej breed of cows. An estimated 54.34 crore heads of cattle exist in the state. The scenario of drought, therefore, is making many local organisations gear up for setting up cattle camps and goshalas. The cost of fodder which used to be between Rs 180 to Rs 200 per quintal in normal times has shot up to Rs 350 and even Rs 400 in some districts.

Damage to crops caused by the drought is causing distress to farmers. There is a reduction of demand for labour for farming and non-farming activities. Experts say if existing conditions persist, the beginning of the new millennium may see migration of men and cattle in search of food, fodder and water.

Around two lakh people are estimated to be employed in the relief works started in drought areas during the current month. This figure will double by January. In April, May and June, an estimated eight lakh, 10 and 11 lakh persons, respectively, may have to be provided relief employment as per current estimate.

The drinking water situation, which has traditionally been acute in this state, has deteriorated further to a near catastrophic level. Due to lack of rains, storage of water in reservoirs during monsoon was insufficient. The ground water level has gone down. Lack of proper drinking water may lead to epidemic, apart from affecting human life in the normal course.

An acute fodder shortage is anticipated as sowing in a large area did not take place. Because of non-availability of water in the irrigation tanks and wells, the prospects of Rabi crop are also dim and this is likely to further affect the fodder situation.

The May 18, 1999, cyclonic depression in the Arabian Sea thus has left behind an impending trail of destruction — the impact may be felt early in the next millennium unless corrective steps are taken. And for these steps, resources are needed. With great difficulty the Rajasthan government paid salaries to its staff on the eve of Divali. It has denied bonus this year and experts in the finance Department of the Secretariat in Jaipur are at a loss about the source of money for payment of wages to government staff next month.