Analysis
Tale of two sons, one ex-CM
Tribune News Service

CHANDIGARH, Oct 6 — The strategic states of Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh provide an interesting study in the voters' behaviour during the mid-term election to the 13th Lok Sabha. In Punjab, the supposedly omnipresent post-Kargil "Vajpayee factor" could not save Mr Parkash Singh Badal's SAD-BJP combine from a shattering defeat. Barring the Tarn Taran, Ferozepore and Gurdaspur seats, it has failed to retain the tremendous advantage it had acquired in the 1998 general election.

Film actor Vinod Khanna (BJP) barely managed to scrape past Sukhbans Kaur Bhinder (Congress) by 1,399 votes.

The most humiliating blow is the defeat of the Chief Minister's son, Mr Sukhbir Singh Badal, from the Faridkot parliamentary constituency. Though he was a Minister of State at the Centre, wittingly or unwittingly, he came to symbolise all that has gone wrong in Punjab during the past one year or so.

Why did the SAD fare so badly? The answer to this query was virtually written on the walls of Punjab well before the polling day. In the first place, the split within the SAD made Mr Badal's party vulnerable. Mr Gurcharan Singh Tohra, President of the Sarv Hind Akali Dal, put him on the defensive. Mr Tohra's campaign was directed against the Chief Minister and members of his family. Though Mr Tohra failed to get himself and his party any seat, he did enough damage to the SAD's public image.

A shrewd operator, Mr Tohra was ready to go to any extent to embarrass Mr Badal to the advantage of the Congress. With the help of the former Jathedar of Akal Takht, Bhai Ranjit Singh, he successfully split the Akali votes in the rural areas.

Second, the verdict in Punjab was also a vote against the non-performance of the Badal government. There has been all-round resentment against its lack of drive and initiative in critical areas of development. The financial crisis only helped to shatter the people's confidence in the state government.

The third equally important factor which tilted the scales against Mr Badal was the people's anger against the style and functioning of some key functionaries. In a way, the popular ire was directed against the government's extra-constitutional authority with the support of the Badal family. The Chief Minister was very much aware of the odds against him. He heavily banked on the Vajpayee factor, but in vain. The defeat of his son has to be seen in this light.

Amidst the changing loyalties at the hustings, the new hero is the President of the Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee, Captain Amarinder Singh. He stands out against the Congress party's overall performance in the rest of the country.

One interesting facet which should not be lost sight of is the victory of Mr Simranjit Singh Mann, President of the Akali Dal (Mann), who once spearheaded the "Khalistan" movement in the state. In the present election, he projected a new image for himself and made it clear that he was not for Khalistan. He also took pains to woo the Hindu voters.

The defeat of Mr Surjit Singh Barnala, Union Minister for Food, at the hands of Mr Mann, provides a new pointer in Punjab politics. In the 1998 elections, Mr Barnala defeated Mr Mann by a margin of 82,165 votes. This time the latter has won handsomely.

The Congress, however, failed to retain the advantage of Punjab in the neighbouring state of Haryana. It has fared very badly there. For this poor show, the Congress high command is mainly to blame. It lost Haryana the day it decided to save the then HVP-BJP government headed by Mr Bansi Lal. In fact, it played a series of dubious games to save him, dump him and again save him. In the process, the party lost its credibility.

In any case, the state unit of the Congress has been a house divided against itself. There were several factional leaders who were going their own way to the advantage of the INLD-BJP alliance, headed by Mr Om Parkash Chautala. Ironically, the defeat of Mr Bhajan Lal came on a day when some of the vernacular newspapers carried front-page advertisements extending him birthday greetings!

Mr Bhajan Lal obviously overplayed his cards. He probably failed to realise that money power can work for a limited purpose and in certain situations and not for all the times.

Interestingly, the powerful son of former Haryana Chief Minister Bansi Lal, Mr Surender Singh, has also been defeated. He virtually lost his support base the day Mr Bansi Lal imposed prohibition in the state. His reputation suffered because of his "controversial role" during those days.

Mr Chautala is bound to take the advantage of the situation. He may even opt for an early election to the state assembly to fortify his hold on Haryana.

As for Himachal Pradesh, the BJP continues to maintain its last year's hold on the electorate. Perhaps, this is mainly because power has not yet corrupted the present Chief Minister, Mr Prem Kumar Dhumal, though the BJP will always find the company of Mr Sukh Ram, President of the Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC), rather embarrassing in the months to come.

In Chandigarh, the triumph of Mr Pawan Kumar Bansal of the Congress is seen as victory for the local candidate in the face of the BJP's formidable leader, Mr K.L. Sharma. Mr Bansal has a fairly good image among the residents of the City Beautiful.