It’s politics of water in Gujarat
From L.H. Naqvi
Tribune News Service

GANDHINAGAR: Do not blame the people of Gujarat if they literally turn out to be merely fair weather friends of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

In the last elections out of 26 Lok Sabha seats 19 had gone to the BJP and the remaining seven to the Congress. However, this time the voters may turn against the party in power not because they have rediscovered their old love for the Congress but because the weather has been unkind to Gujarat.

The Congress-coined slogan “Pehle paani, phir Advani” sums up the current mood of the electorate in the state.The entire Saurashtra belt is reeling under the impact of the worst drought in recent memory.

And the people instead of blaming nature for their plight hold the state government responsible for the severe shortage of water for irrigation and domestic purposes.

Against this dismal backdrop it is difficult to share with the BJP member of the Rajya Sabha, Mr Prafull Goradia, his optimism that his party’s share of seats from Gujarat in the new Lok Sabha would go up to 22 when elections are held on September 5.

He discussed at length the factors which he claimed had helped the BJP gain political acceptability in the otherwise pro-Congress Adivasi belt.

According to him, the biggest factor which would go against the Congress was its blind support to the Muslim population, in spite of alleged wrong-doing by some members, in the vast tribal belt of the state.

The alarming increase in the number of illegitimate children among Adivasi women sired allegedly by local Muslims has made the task of the BJP easier in the matter of winning the trust of the tribals. Of course, Mr Goradia could not provide reliable statistics on illegitimate Adivasi children sired by local Muslims.

However, circumstantial evidence supported his claim about communal tension between the two principal components of Mr Shankarsinh Vaghela’s anti-BJP KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) working to the advantage of the ruling party. Mr Ahmed Patel, the best known Muslim face of the Congress in the state, has decided not to contest.

The result is that for the first time it would be a triangular contest for the Bharuch seat between three tribal candidates put up by the two main parties and the Janata Dal. When the Congress asked Mr Mohammad Baloch to contest from Jamnagar, he produced a medical certificate to prove his political “unfitness” for the contest!

However, when the issue which has the potential of redefining the meaning of Waterloo in the context of the drought in Gujarat was mentioned Mr Goradia gave a feeble smile as if to indicate that what the Congress seems incapable of doing to the BJP the nasty weather might.

“What can we do? We cannot order God to bring rains to Gujarat”, he said, speaking more to himself than explaining the impact of the dry spell on the electoral prospects of the BJP. Even from Gandhinagar the news is not comforting for the BJP.

The Congress candidate from this constituency, Mr T.N. Seshan, if he wins, may offer a private prayer to Lord Indra for helping him by not bringing the rain clouds to the State which has few other natural or man-made sources of getting water for drinking and irrigation.

How else should one react except accuse nature of playing politics — to the fact that for the first time in 35 years after the creation of Gandhinagar the State’s capital too has reported acute shortage of water?

This is the same district which used to meet the water requirements of Rajkot where water was transported by trains during years of severe drought in the 80s.

If the state government goes out of its way for coping with the problem of water-scarcity, the Election Commission may interpret it as an unfair electoral practice. The BJP rank and file is not even offering special prayers for rains. It is a Catch-22 situation for the ruling party.

If it does not rain before September 5, a large number of voters may reject it. If it rains, the farmers may prefer to tend their land rather than take part in the exercise which has become more predictable than weather.

Both Napoleon and Hitler were defeated by the weather and the Russian army. Gujarat may have a somewhat similar tale to tell if the visible mood across the State translates into votes against the BJP.