New Delhi, April 19
The government is expected to make public the monsoon predictions for 2006 next week. The Tribune, however, managed to get a sneak preview of the monsoon report that as for now predicts that it would be “normal to near-normal”.
Experts say that of the eight factors that govern the south-west monsoon, some are favourable.
The most important factor that is turning the odds against what could have made 2006 to be a very good monsoon year have been the ups and downs in the La Nina factor during the past months. In fact, till about last month the tendency in the La Nina scenario was on the positive side, which appears to have changed last week, with it turning “neutral” now.
Met experts say it “No La Nina means that the monsoon can go either way. As the situation was developing we expected La Nina to continue its tendency till the end of June. Both El Nino and La Nina relate to sea surface temperature anomalies and have a cycle of three to four years. The Indian monsoon predictions in the past 100 years have shown that whenever there has been La Nina, the country has always received very good monsoon.”
The fact that temperatures in April have been lower than normal is not being considered a very good sign as there has been no pre-monsoon heating of the land. The Met office is expecting the temperatures to rise in the next five days, today being the last cool day
But even now whatever showers different areas are experiencing are pre-monsoon and hopefully in the next few days adequate heating of land will take place and more factors become favourable for a very good monsoon, they add.
