New Delhi, May 10
The good news for the day is that the country’s most awaited weather phenomenon — the southwest monsoon — has set in over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, Nicobar islands and Andaman Sea, almost five to six days earlier than May15, its normal date of arrival.
The IMD says that the arrival date of the monsoon over the Indian mainland will be formally declared within a couple of days, but majority of signals monitored for its further advancement are green. The normal date for onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1. Some weather experts say that at this stage it appears that the monsoon may have an early beginning of 10 days or so. But IMD Director B.P Yadav explains that there is no one-to-one correlation between the arrival of the
first branch of monsoon over south Andaman Sea and the time it actually hits the Indian mainland. However, for
good advancement of monsoon some features are monitored which are all present today.
“The pressure gradient should increase, the strength of southwesterly winds should increase and their depth should reach the middle troposphere level and there should be strong easterly winds in the upper troposphere. These changes have been occurring over the past three to four days but today all parameters are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of Andaman Sea and southeast Bay of Bengal,” he says. The normal date of arrival of first branch of monsoon over south Andaman sea is May 15, he adds.
In all, the country can expect good rains, so very important for its farm-based economy. In its first status report issued on April 19, the IMD predicted the monsoon to be 95 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with an error margin of five per cent. In other words, people can expect to get 84-cm rainfall, which is 95 per cent of 89 cm, the normal overall long period average for the country. The UK met office also predicted a near normal or above normal monsoon for India.
Director of the Pune-based National Climate Centre M. Rajeevan told The Tribune today that the IMD stood by its earlier forecast that on the whole good monsoon rains could be expected during 2007. “95 per cent of the LPA is a good rainfall average,” he said. What is also adding to the prospects of a good monsoon were indications of development of La Nina conditions between monsoon months of July and September and the fact that Europe temperatures were above normal.
A good monsoon year can have spell benefits for the country’s agriculture, but the fact also is that high yields from crop cultivation also depends on the area specific timing and distribution of the rainfall, which the Indian met office has so far been largely unable to do.
