Chandigarh, June 19
Despite scattered showers over the past week, monsoon is not likely to advance to northwest India over the next five days. The weather systems, as they are building, are likely to shift the enhanced rainfall activity over Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, south Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and southeast Rajasthan.
This will happen due to the likely west and northwestward movement of the system, director, Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi, S.C. Bhan told The Tribune today. He also clarified that rainfall being received in the zone was not pre-monsoon in nature. It was being induced by cyclonic circulations. This zone comprises Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, western UP, Punjab, Haryana and New Delhi.
Commenting on monsoon advancement, Bhan said, “Monsoon advancement is never smooth. It progresses in surges, then slackens and then surges again. We are not expecting a surge in the northwest in the next five days. But rain is expected due to a cyclonic circulation moving west to east.
“Further, we can’t term this rain pre-monsoon. It is due to cyclonic circulation which remained over Punjab for two days and then moved to Himachal Pradesh. There’s one system over central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab and another western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir. These systems are causing rain.”
The shift in systems was induced by a low pressure area over east-central Bay of Bengal which is likely to concentrate into a depression during next
Monsoon ‘drifting away from region’
48 hours. It will increase frequency of rain over Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, south Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha between June 21 and 23.
With the likely west-northwestward movement of the system, enhanced rainfall belt will shift to Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, south MP, Gujarat and southeast Rajasthan between June 23 and 25. Southwest monsoon is further likely to advance into remaining parts of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, entire Gujarat, southern Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan during the next five days.
