New Delhi, August 24
Dark clouds of political uncertainty over the UPA government may soon be lifting as the government has shown signs of pushing the pause button on operationalisation of the nuclear deal.

A tell-tale indication of this has come from New Delhi’s stand on its negotiations with the IAEA which the Left parties want stalled.

The red line drawn by the Left is not going to be violated by the Manmohan Singh government as India-specific safeguards agreement is not going to come up for discussion at the IAEA’s annual general conference scheduled to take place in Vienna from September 17 to 21.

Atomic energy commissioner Anil Kakodkar may go ahead with his scheduled departure for Vienna on September 14, but his visit will not cause any political tremors in New delhi.

As per IAEA norms, an issue can be discussed at the annual meeting only after giving a 30-day prior notice. India had to give this notice by August 17, which it has not. This means that the IAEA cannot take up the issue.

This has a significant diplomatic rip-off. Getting the IAEA nod by signing an India-specific safeguards would have paved the way for approaching the NSG for a waiver. Only after the IAEA and NSG hurdles are crossed, can the Bush administration put up the 123 agreement before the Congress for an up-down vote. The Congress cannot decide on the issue within days as it is mandatory for it to have a minimum of 45 days before voting.

All three stages are interlinked and like a pipeline network, a blockage at one stage, stalls the delivery of goods.

In January 2008, the administration becomes a lame-duck government as the first primaries of the presidential election begin.

The question being asked in diplomatic circles here is if it is a goof-up on India’s part not to give the one-month notice to the IAEA or does it denote a go-slow tactic on part of the government. The next conference of the IAEA will be held on September 28, 2008.

New Delhi, August 24
Left parties may stand to lose heavily while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) can emerge as a big gainer if snap polls are held now, according to a survey by a leading English magazine.

The UPA might secure 172 to 192 seats, showing a downslide, while NDA’s kitty can go up to 178 to 198 seats and the Third Front can notch 44 to 54 seats, The Week/CVoter survey said.

In the 545-member Lok Sabha, the share of the four Left parties, which is having a stand-off with the Government on the nuclear issue, may drop to 38 to 48 seats from the present all time best of 59 seats. CPM alone has 43 seats and CPI has 10 in the current Lok Sabha.

The BSP, which swept to power in the recent UP assembly polls belying all predictions, may see its numbers more than doubling up. The BSP, which now has a strength of 18, can look for securing 44 to 55 seats, the survey claimed. A handshake by Congress President Sonia Gandhi and BSP supremo Mayawati and the support of smaller parties could diminish the clout enjoyed by the CPM.

The independents may be able to cobble up 26 to 36 seats according to the survey. UPA, BSP plus independents can be in a position to form the government.

The Left parties while asking the Government not to operationalise the Indo-US nuclear deal have made it known to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress party that they were not keen to rock the UPA boat.

Thirty per cent of the voters polled were of the opinion that the Congress should listen to the Left parties and scrap the deal, while 47 per cent felt that Congress should not listen to the Left demands. 23 per cent voters were undecided. — PTI