New Delhi, September 16
Announcement from Islamabad yesterday that Pakistani Presidential candidate Gen Pervez Musharraf will doff the uniform after re-election early next month has shifted the focus on who would assume charge of the most powerful and the critical post in Pakistan’s fragile political scenario.
This specially as the country has a history of coups from men in the top army post. Before the 1999 coup by General Musharraf, there had been three more coups led by Field Marshal Ayub Khan, General Yayha Khan and General Zia-ul-Haq in Pakistan, with the country seeing a rule by the army generals for more than 32 years in its 60 years of existence.
The growing pressure from the political parties and from the US on General Musharraf to shed uniform as the President has forced him to make this move but analysts point out that this would also make his position at the top shaky. To ensure that he does not face the same fate which he handed out to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, General Musharraf would want a confidant to assume charge of the Chief of Army Staff after him.
Analysts point out that the race for the top post has been on for some time now after it became clear that President Musharraf will have to step down as the Chief of Army Staff. While two of his most trusted lieutenants are due for retirement in early October, there are three more of his trusted Generals in the hierarchy who are in the race for the post.
President Musharraf is expected to take oath of office by November 15 as civilian President and it would be just before that that he will quit as the army chief.
Presently, Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat, who is also the vice-chief of army staff, is the senior most in the hierarchy followed by Gen Ehsan-ul-Haq. General Hayat, a Rajput Muslim and General Haq, an urbane officer with moderate religious beliefs are two key members of General Musharraf’s kitchen cabinet and who reached their present positions after superseding seven and six three-star officers, respectively.
They are both firm General Musharraf loyalists with General Hayat also surviving an assassination attempt in 2004 when he was the corps commander in Karachi. However, both of them retire from service on October 8.
It is after this that the race really opens up and the next three in the Pakistan army’s hierarchy come into focus for the post of the Chief of Army Staff. However, of the three, two really are the favourites with the
third having an outside chance of emerging as the real confidant of President Musharraf.
According to analysts, Lieut-Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, who is the Director General of ISI and Lieut-Gen Tariq Majeed, who is the corps commander, Rawalpindi, also where the General Headquarters of Pakistan Army is based, are the two frontrunners at present for the post. But Lieut-Gen Salahuddin Satti, who is the chief of general staff, general headquarters, can also get a nod from President Musharraf to take over as the Chief of Army Staff.
Lt General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani is a Musharraf confidant, who has also worked with Benazir Bhutto as a deputy military secretary during her first tenure as the Prime Minister.
Lt General Kiani, from the Baloch Regiment, has had training stints at US institutions and retains links from that period with the US army and security framework.
He is considered to be a hardliner, experienced General with an ear to the ground on India. He has been part of the inner coterie among the principal staff officers advising the President on Kashmir and India-Pakistan peace process.
On the other hand the X Corps based at Rawalpindi is the most important command, given its proximity to Islamabad, its primary role of handling military operations against India and keeping alive the Army’s Kashmir agenda. Lt General Majeed’s importance could be gauged from the fact the no General can attempt a coup without his support.
Inevitably, therefore, the Corps Commander, Rawalpindi, enjoys the confidence of the Chief of Army Staff and is more than likely to be a staunch loyalist when the Army Chief also happens to be the President of Pakistan.
Lt General Majeed is more a loyalist than a Musharraf confidant. His name has even been mentioned as the likely successor to General Musharraf during the talks with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto at Abu Dhabi in July this year.
Lt Gen Salahuddin Satti, Commander X Corps, Rawalpindi, till October 5, 2006 is known for his close association with President Musharraf which dates back to the latter’s tenure in Siachen. He had served with the Special Services Group (SSG) in Siachen as a Brigadier.
