Pak chopper crash not sabotage
Experts see no conspiracy against Musharraf
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, October 10
By his own admission in his autobiography “In The Line of Fire”, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf gave a detailed account of nine times he escaped death and said: “I only pray that I have more than the proverbial nine lives of a cat”.

The crash of one of the helicopters in General Musharraf’s “helicade” on October 8 in Pakistan occupied Kashmir was the 10th when he had a close brush with death. However, knowledgeable circles here believe that the chopper crash appears to be an accident, not an act of sabotage.

Four of the 12 persons on board were killed when a Pakistani army Puma helicopter escorting President Musharraf’s flight crashed in the mountains after a fire broke out in the aircraft’s tail area. Some people managed to survive by jumping from the flaming aircraft as it struggled to stay airborne. Musharraf, who was visiting Muzaffarabad to commemorate the nearly 80,000 victims of a 2005 earthquake, had already landed safely when the chopper crashed.

Any aircraft incident involving Pakistan’s President elicits conspiracy theories and speculation about an assassination attempt, ever since the C-130 transport plane carrying then-President Gen Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq crashed in August 1988, killing both the President and the US Ambassador to Pakistan. Ever since the most audacious two attempts by terrorists in 2003 in the space of 10 days, General Musharraf’s security managers have started using multiple aircraft for presidential visits within the country and to the PoK as per laid down international norms.

The use of multiple aircraft is a deliberate device used by the governments to bamboozle terrorists as the aircraft the principal finally travels by is chosen at the last minute. This makes it difficult for would-be

assassins to know which aircraft to target, and therefore to plan an attack.

Though sabotage or other hostile action cannot be ruled out in this case, the October 8 crash most likely was an accident. Here is another reason. Even assuming some unknown attackers were guessing as to which flight Musharraf would be on, they still would have attempted to use an explosive or incendiary device powerful enough to destroy the helicopter midair.

There is no evidence of use of a powerful explosive or incendiary device in this context.

Of the 32 Aerospatiale SA 330J Puma helicopters Pakistan had acquired in 1976 to use for air assault and transportation, some two dozen still remain on inventory. These aircraft are old and are more difficult to maintain than the rugged Russian-designed Mi-17, which Pakistan also operates. Besides, the thin air at the elevation where the helicopters were - almost 10,000 feet above sea level - increases flying risks.

There is a political side as well in the helicopter crash episode. In other times, General Musharraf could have used this incident to purge the military and strengthen his position. Given his precarious political position currently, a purge is the last thing that can be on Musharraf’s mind.

The General will not like to bite more than he can chew.