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Poll maths hazy as D-day arrives
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Western UP
Ghaziabad
Barmer Clash disrupts repolling
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Main contenders: Shruti Choudhry (INC), Ajay Chautala (INLD), Rao Narinder (HJC) Core Issues: Regaining the ‘Bhiwani ki Chaudhar’, lack of development FACTORS AT PLAY: Caste factor will be decisive on this Jat seat. Also, the inclusion of Mahendragarh, post delimitation, has made a big Ahir pocket suddenly important It is an election of emotions for those associated with the Bansi Lal clan and the Chautalas Crowd Pullers: Gujarat CM Narendra Modi and minister Birender Singh for his tongue-in-cheek remarks Voter’s Mood: Realising that it is a fight between two "badda gharanas", the voter is silent on his choice.
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Main contenders: Sita Ram (INLD), Ashok Tanwar (Cong) Core Issues: ‘Outsider’ (Tanwar) versus insider (Sita Ram) card, Hansi-Bhutana link canal FACTORS AT PLAY: Support of Dera Sacha Sauda Dalit votes polled by the BSP nominee Rajesh Vaid will directly affect the Congress prospects. The INLD candidate may have to suffer from resentment in the Dhanak community Voter’s Mood: The silence of voters, especially in the urban areas, has been a major worry for all candidates
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Main contenders: Avatar Singh Bhadana (Congress), Ramchander Bainda (BJP), Chetan Sharma (BSP) and Chander Bhatia-HJC(BL). Core Issues: Construction of Badarpur flyover, official apathy, power outages FACTORS AT PLAY: Congress is rattled by factionalism with its three MLAs, AC Chaudhary, Karan Dalal and Mahendra Pratap not giving much support to Badhana. Crowd Pullers: Gujarat CM Narendra Modi addressed one of the biggest rallies in Faridabad Voter’s Mood: Electorate appears unenthusiastic
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Main contenders: Sitting MP Kumari Selja (Congress), former MP Rattan Lal Kataria (BJP+INLD), Chanderpal (BSP) and Dalbir Singh (HJC) Core Issues: Revival of HMT factory in Pinjore, Yamunanagar plywood traders’ demand of tax exemption. FACTORS AT PLAY: Anti-incumbency against Selja and infighting are two big worries for the Congress The stronger BSP Crowd Pullers: Modi and Mayawati Voter’s Mood: Only time will tell
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Main contenders: Rao Inderjeet Singh (Congress), Zakir Hussain (BSP), Rao Narbir Singh (HJC) and Dr Sudha Yadav (BJP-INLD) Core Issues: Water and power shortage, discrimination with Mewat region FACTORS AT PLAY: Personal hold of candidates, caste equations The urban areas of the constituency have earned the "notoriety" of not casting their votes. Crowd Pullers: Rahul Gandhi, Sushma Swaraj and Mayawati Voter’s Mood: Urban voters are mostly indifferent.
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Main contenders: Naveen Jindal (Cong), Ashok Arora (INLD), Gurdial Singh Saini (BSP) Core Issues: Price rise, unemployment FACTORS AT PLAY: Jindal belongs to Aggarwal community. To counter him, the INLD has fielded Arora, who is a Punjabi. Saini is banking on his community and Scheduled Caste/ Backward Class votes Crowd Pullers: Narendra Modi and Govinda Turning Point: Though the constituency was considered as a clean sweep for the Congress, the fact that Chautalas went all out to woo Jat voters may give the INLD a fighting chance Voter’s Mood:Awareness is at an all-time high. People will choose a person who would be able to address issues affecting their daily life.
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Main contenders: Jitender Malik (Congress), Kishan Singh Sangwan (BJP), Umesh Sharma (HJC) and Dev Raj Dewan (BSP) Core Issues: Power, development and price rise FACTORS AT PLAY: A disgruntled Birender Singh has marred the Congress campaign. BJP nominee Kishen Singh Sanghwan is facing anti-incumbency. Crowd Pullers: No real glam quotient Turning point: Rallies by Om Prakash Chautala gave a big boost to Sanghwan. Voter’s Mood: With 62 per cent voters above the age of 40, seniority matters here
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Main contenders: Deepender Singh Hooda ( Cong ), Nafe Singh Rathi (INLD), Rajkumar Sharma, (BSP) and Krishan Murti Hooda (HJC). Core Issues: Development, corruption and unemployment. FACTORS AT PLAY: The locals are of the opinion that it is for the first time that development is showing in the area. The Congress, which has ‘stayed away’ from ‘political vendetta’ has won supporters. Crowd Pullers: Not many here. Former CMs, Bhajan Lal and Om Prakash Chautala campaigned extensively for their nominees. Turning Point: Candidates are mostly banking on small cluster meetings other than big rallies. Voter’s Mood: The fact that the average voter is not very vocal and parties are keeping their fingers crossed
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Main contenders: Sitting Congress MP Arvind Sharma, former Union Minister ID Swami (BJP), Varinder Verma (BSP) Core Issues: Discrimination against north Haryana, price rise. FACTORS AT PLAY: CM Hooda’s directive to MLAs and other leaders to ensure Sharma’s victory. Swami, on other hand, has failed to win back the support of RSS cadres. Turning Point :People from all walks of life participated in a Quarter Marathon - "Run for 100 per cent corruption and liquor-free voting." Voter’s Mood: The silence of voters is keeping the candidates on tenterhooks
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Main contenders: Bhajan Lal (HJC), Sampat Singh (INLD), Jai Parkash (Congress), Ram Dayal Goyal (BSP) Core Issues: No real issues here. It’s matter of political survival for three candidates. FACTORS AT PLAY: Caste leanings, local vs outsider issue. Crowd Pullers: CM Hooda, Modi Voter’s Mood: They are lying low
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OVERVIEW As the campaigning for the Lok Sabha elections came to an end this evening, multi-cornered contests in almost all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana have thrown up an equation of electoral mathematics which is confounding even the most serious students of state politics. No one can predict with certainty what will be the tally when the results will be out on May 16, as the equation has been further complicated by the extraordinary advances made by the BSP in certain areas of the state and inroads being made into the vote bank of the ruling party by the Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC). Though both the Congress and the NDA (BJP-INLD) claim they will win all seats, in their heart of hearts they know that no one is fooled by their claims. The Congress, which started as the hot favourite, found along the way that the going was not as easy as it had expected. Of course, much of its troubles were of its own making. The party faced open dissidence in several constituencies, which it failed to curb. If BJP leader LK Advani, who has been accusing the Congress leadership of not being "decisive and firm" with terrorists, had substituted "terrorists" with "dissidents", many Congressmen would have readily agreed with him. The INLD-BJP alliance just failed to click not only with voters but their grassroots workers also. It is particularly true for the BJP, workers of which were told by the leadership in the past five years that in future the party would not enter into any alliance in Haryana, least of all with the INLD, which had humiliated the BJP when both were allies before 2004. Today, the INLD is at a crucial juncture in its history. The BJP’s worry about Haryana has come true. Its central leadership had told the state unit that it must strive to project the elections in the state as an NDA versus UPA (read Advani versus Manmohan Singh) affair and not Bhupinder Singh Hooda versus Om Prakash Chautala. However, as the campaign progressed, in Haryana the voter talked of choosing between the two state leaders and not the two national leaders. The saving grace for the ruling party is that there is no anti-incumbency against the state government. In most of the areas people do not seem to have anything against the government. However, certain sitting MPs are facing strong anti-incumbency, either due to their inaccessibility or arrogance. The campaigning also brought out an important lesson for the sitting MPs. The lack of inter-personal relations with voters and their party MLAs in their constituency may cost some of them heavily, particularly when there are no ideological issues before the voter, who seems to be guided mainly by caste considerations. The only party which has reason to laugh all the way is the BSP. Starting as a party, which was not being taken seriously about two years ago, the BSP today seems to be in contest in several constituencies. The HJC’s survival depends upon whether it is able to pick up a couple of seats. Otherwise, it may turn out to be a case infant mortality.— TNS
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BSP’s super stroke: Hindu nominees in Muslim hubs
Ajay Banerjee writes from Muzzafarnagar/ Saharanpur
The astute strategists of the BSP seem to have played a ‘master stroke’ in western UP. The party’s choice of candidates is a careful blend to ride the caste/communal divide, while not compromising on its hardcore Dalit vote bank. And at the moment, it appears to be working for the ‘jumbo brigade.’ Powerful opinion-makers among Muslims --- some of them rebels of the Samajwadi Party --- have left behind their cycles (SP’s election symbol) and are hitching a ride on the elephant (BSP symbol). Also, the party has been very clever in allotting the ticket to wives of powerful sitting MLAs or ministers in Mayawati cabinet. But what has drawn the maximum interest among the pundits is the BSP’s choice of fielding Hindu candidates in hardcore Muslims pockets. The party’s Hindu candidates in the Muslim-strongholds of Moradabad, Saharanpur, Badaun and Rampur are seen as “unusual”. The community forms some 35-45 per cent of population in each of these pockets. However, the BSP think tank’s logic is clear: A section of Muslim votes will be split between SP and Congress candidates (both from Muslim communities). The upper-caste Hindus, Jats, Thakurs, a section of Muslims and of course the Dalits will back the BSP. Talking to the Tribune, Dr Jaswant Singh, a minister in the Mayawati cabinet, said, “Muslims are with us, they have seen the double face of the SP, while the Congress was not in the race. Our party is for all communities and these candidates are in strong positions due to the committed vote bank of Dalits.” In Moradabad, BSP’s Rajiv Channa is challenging cricketer Mohd Azaharuddin of the Congress, who is seen as a front-runner. In Badaun, mafia don-turned-politician, DP Yadav, a former staunch friend of SP, is now in the Mayawati camp. He will face five-term MP Saleem Sherwani of the Congress. In Sharanpur, Jagdish Singh Rana will square up in front of a Muslim candidate of the SP. In Rampur, Ghanshayam Lodhi will be facing Noor Bano of the Congress or Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi. However, if the upper-caste Hindus shift from the BSP and favour the Congress or the BJP, the move could backfire for the BSP. The BSP planning started some time in July last year when the SP general secretary Shahid Siddique, quit his party protesting support to the Indo-US N-deal. He is contesting from Bijnore. And contrastingly, Dr Shafiq-ul-rehma Barq, the SP’s sitting MP from Moradabad, who went about telling his community how good the nuke deal was for the country, is also in the BSP after he quit the SP on being denied the ticket. He is contesting from Sambhal. A young Chandigarh-educated Jat-Sikh farmer Birender Singh from Muffarnagar, opines “voting in these parts is based on the persona of the candidate”. He may be right. The local BSP candidate is Kadar Rana, formerly with the Lok Dal. He runs the famous Rana steel. He has the backing of peasants, the powerful transport lobby and also the Muslims. Rana faces a tough fight with Anuradha Chaudhary, Ajit’s Singh protégé, in the fray. Among the wives of ministers and MLAs, who have been given the ticket by the BSP are Tabassum Begum (Bijnore) wife of late Munnawar Hasan; Rajkumari Chauhan (Aligarh),wife of minister Thakur Jaiveer Singh, Seema Upadhayaya (Fatehpur Sikri),wife of minister Ramveer Upadhayaya and Sunita Singh (Shahjahanpur),wife of MLA Vijay Pal. A minister in the Mayawati cabinet Shajil Islam' has managed a ticket for his father Islam Sabir from Bareilly.
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Rajnath works on caste combinations Ajay Banerjee Tribune News Service Ghaziabad, May 5 On one hand, there are six-laned roads lined with swanky malls, high-rise luxury apartments and IT companies and on the other hand rubble and mud exist in place of state highways and illegal arms factories and colonies dot the area. Former Chief Minister of UP and BJP chief Rajnath Singh is upbeat and has dismissed it as “no contest”. The sheer stature makes Rajnath a natural choice, claimed a BJP worker in Ghaziabad. There is dissent from old-timers of the BJP after four-time former MP Ramesh Tomar was denied the ticket. He joined the Congress and is now contesting on the Congress ticket in adjoining Gautambudh Nagar (Noida). However, the BJP has snubbed the dissent saying the party is united. A rally by Rahul Gandhi a few days ago had boosted the morale of sitting MP of the Congress Surindra Goel. It will be a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. Goel projects himself as the common man, complete with a look of a simpleton. Meanwhile, rivals are portraying Rajnath as the high-flying VVIP with black cat commandos in tow. The BJP believes its chief will bridge the divide between urban Ghaziabad and tackle issues like illegal colonies, arms factories and shanties alongside the left bank of the Yamuna. Goel says: “I am from Ghaziabad while Rajnath is an outsider.” A local, a resident of “modern” Ghaziabad, said the stature of Rajnath Singh and the backing of upper castes like Thakurs and Jats will help him win. However, both parties are yet to talk about illegal arms factories. They talk about security, but how will it be done that is not answered, says Veena Lathar, a lecturer in a local management college. The BJP said even if the BSP was in power in the state Rajnath would be the ideal choice to lend weight to tackle the law and order issue. A BJP supporter Vinay Tyagi, who met The Tribune near Muradnagar, chuckles: “In modern Ghaziabad, people have international issues in mind. They work in Delhi or Noida and come here just to sleep,” adding that Rajnath Singh realises the needs of modern Ghaziabad and promises safety, more greenery besides an airport and a university. Rajnath, in tandem with Ajit Singh, is also working on caste combinations to influence Thakurs, Jats and Tyagis. For votes of Garhwalis, Uttarakhand leaders like CM Maj Gen BC Khanduri (retd) are being used. Both the Congress and the BJP have come down hard on the BSP for ignoring Ghaziabad. Mainly, the fight is between the Congress and the BJP. Meanwhile, BSP candidate Amar Pal Sharma pins hopes on the support of Muslims and the hardcore vote bank of the BSP.
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Litmus test for Jaswant’s son Perneet Singh Tribune News Service Barmer, May 5 Battling with dissidents in the party and a spirited Congress, which won six out of eight Assembly seats here last year, the father-son duo is banking on Muslim voters' support. Barmer has around 2 lakh Muslim voters, most of them Sindhis with historical ties with Pakistan. The BJP is claiming the support of Peer Pagaro, the Pakistan-based spiritual leader of the Sindhi Muslims settled in the constituency. Their votes may turn out to be decisive for Manvendra Singh as the constituency is more or less polarised on caste lines. Irked with the then MP Sona Ram, the Muslims, who were traditional Congress voters, had supported Manvendra in the last elections. Though the Congress is trying to woo the Muslims back, minority community leaders are having second thoughts as Jaswant Singh and his son have earned a lot of goodwill among Muslims in the last few years. Manvendra is also getting the support of Muslims as he has initiated several measures to provide their children quality education. As far as the infighting in the BJP is concerned, there are several in the party who are not happy with Manvendra being allotted the ticket from Barmer. Leading the pack is former BJP MLA Gangaram Chaudhary. However, Manvendra can draw solace from the fact that his rival, Congress’ Harish Choudhary, too, is facing a similar problem from former MP Sona Ram, without whose support the party will find it difficult to garner the support of Jats.
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Clash disrupts repolling
Bhubaneshwar, May 5 “The police was forced to resort to lathicharge to disperse the activists who fought with each other on the road close to the polling station,” a senior police officer said.
— PTI |
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Lalu gyan RJD chief Lalu Prasad is not just asking people to vote for him during his campaigns, but is also giving lessons on how to use EVMs in his trademark rustic style with loads of humour thrown in. Lalu Prasad has been teaching people how to use the EVM correctly during each of his election meetings in Bihar’s Patliputra constituency. “Listen carefully and try to learn to use EVMs the right way as any mistake will spoil your vote ... it will cost me,” he said at one of his rallies. What makes everyone listen is his humorous way of explaining things. With a dummy EVM in hand,
Lalu said in Hindi: “Machinwa ko sahi se dekhna, bagal se khulega aur sahi se lalten par
dabana, tab machinwa bolega peen-peen, agar nahin bola to samjho dal mein kuch
kala hain.” — IANS Decent diet What keeps our senior politicians, many of whom are in the 70-plus category, healthy in the heat and dust of the campaign trail? Answer: Their frugal eating habits, active lifestyle and an inner drive powered by the adrenaline rush they get when they interact with so many people. “It amazes me that a lot of people get exhausted and tired as they cross 60 or even earlier, whereas these leaders are doing really well despite their taxing schedules and irregular dietary habits,” says Ashok Seth, a cardiologist. Several senior leaders follow a strict regime of “eating light”, exercise and sleep during campaigning.
— IANS
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Choppers for surveillance JAIPUR:
For the first time, two MI-17 choppers will be deployed for aerial surveillance of sensitive areas during the May 7 Lok Sabha polling in Rajasthan, official sources said on Tuesday. At least eight parliamentary constituencies - Dausa, Karauli-Dholpur, Tonk-Sawaimadhopur, Bharatpur, parts of Alwar and Jaipur-rural - have been identified as sensitive, sources said.
— PTI Nominee booked MUZAFFARNAGAR:
A case has been registered against BSP candidate from Bijnor Shahid Siddiqui for allegedly making objectionable remarks during an election rally in his constituency, the police said on Tuesday. Siddiqui was booked for his alleged remarks, which violate the model code of conduct at Haldore town in Bijnor district a few days ago.
— PTI Boycott call ERODE:
All 2,500 voters of Thengumarahata in Nilgiris district have decided to boycott the May 13 elections. Thengumarahata, one of the main tourist spots in Tamil Nadu, comes under Kothagiri taluk in Nilgiris district. People are in “distress mood” as no development works were made in their area, Nanjan, one of the villagers said.
— PTI |
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If a party or alliance that heeds our demands comes to power at the Centre, I assure you that I shall take steps to create a Tamil Eelam in the same way as Indira Gandhi liberated Bangladesh — AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa They (Congress) are nervous about it (getting the required numbers in the poll). So, while attacking the Left, they take care sometimes to speak about having the Left with them....I don't think the Left will oblige them this time — CPI general secy AB Bardhan If the Left gets 180-190 seats, we will support them. If they achieve that, then I will be the first one to say that we will support them — Cong general secy Rahul Gandhi
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Voter’s guide If a micro observer feels that the poll has been vitiated, what course of action is open to him? If the poll is for any reason vitiated, the micro observer will immediately bring it to the notice of the constituency
observer for taking remedial action
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