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Judgement Day OVERVIEW: Punjab
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Himachal Pradesh
Western UP
Chennai Alliance arithmetic may favour AIADMK
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OVERVIEW: Punjab Chandigarh/Jalandhar, May 12 There are 1,16,82,784 voters in total, which includes 49,101 service personnel. The postal ballot papers to all the service voters had already been dispatched to enable them to exercise their right of franchise. As many as 52,000 civil employees, 174 companies of security forces besides Punjab police personnel have been deployed to conduct the polling at 13,152 polling booths set up for the purpose. “As many as 14,480 electronic voting machines (EVMs) have been pressed into service The Returning Officers have been asked to attach video teams with observers/duty magistrate so as to enable them to record any untoward incident during voting at sensitive polling stations. Orders have already been issued for prohibition of sale of the liquor wef 5 pm today,” said Punjab chief electoral officer Kusumjit Sidhu, while talking to the Tribune. The main roads of the state have been secured by deployment of round-the-clock mobile patrol teams. Night patrolling has been ordered and arms surrender is being ensured. Preventive arrests of anti social elements were also being made, added the CEO. Among candidates, whose fate will be decided tomorrow, include cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu, film actor Vinod Khanna, industrialist Rana Gurjit Singh, folk singer Hans Raj Hans, three youth leaders --- Ravneet Singh Bittu, Sukhwinder Singh Danny and Manish Tiwari, three doctors --- Dr Daljit Singh Cheema, Dr Rattan Singh Ajnala and Dr Sukhwinder Singh Sukhi, a retired IAS officer Som Nath and good number of senior politicians like Mohinder Singh Kaypee, Om Parkash Soni. Partap Singh Bajwa, Santosh Chaudhary, Gurcharan Singh Galib, Sukhdev Singh Libra, Charanjit Singh Atwal and Paramjit Kaur Gulshan. With the weather turning oppressive, most of the candidates are worried about the polling percentage tomorrow. “ If the weather remained hot as it is today, it will affect the voting percentage in a big way, especially in the urban areas”, said a candidate. There has been aggressive campaigning by all parties during the past one week. All senior leaders, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and the senior BJP leader including LK Advani, Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh and Narendra Modi campaigned in Punjab during the last phase. The National Democratic Alliance organised a big rally at Ludhiana. Manmohan Singh addressed rallies at Amritsar, Khadoor Sahib on the last day of campaigning. Political temperature in nine constituencies remained by and large bit cool in comparison to Bathinda where lot of venom was spewed by rivals on each other.
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Top contenders: Mohinder Singh Kaypee (Congress), Hans Raj Hans (SAD) Core Issues: Both parties have been harping on their achievements, the Congress at the Centre and the SAD-BJP in the state FACTORS AT PLAY: Dalit card will come into full play, anti-incumbency is another important factor SPOILERS: BSP candidate Surjit Singh may eat into the Congress vote bank Voters’ Mood: They are keeping their cards close to the chest
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Top contenders: Manish Tewari (Congress) and Gurcharan Singh Galib (SAD) Core Issues: Development, infrastructure, outsider-insider status. FACTORS AT PLAY: The age difference between the 44-year-old Tewari and 76- year-Galib is talk of the town SPOILERS: Kehar Singh Ramgarhia of the BSP might not be among the front-runners. However, he can severely dent the vote bank of both Tewari and Galib Voters’ Mood: While the Akalis seem to have the edge in the rural areas, the urban swing seems to be towards the Congress
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Top contenders: Santosh Chaudhary (Congress), Som Prakash (BJP) and Dr Sukhwinder Sukhi (BSP) Core Issues: Development of kandi area, industrial package, low-priced foodgrains for poor FACTORS AT PLAY: Anti-incumbency, BSP’s rising strength SPOILERS: Disgruntled supporters of former state BJP chief Avinash Rai Khanna Voters’ Mood: People are rooting for a change in the political system
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Top contenders: Sukhdev Singh Libra (Congress) and Charanjit Singh Atwal (SAD). Core Issues: Urbanites rue lack of infrastructure, basic sewerage facilities and potable water. Lack of power in rural hubs FACTORS AT PLAY: Libra faces opposition from ex-PPCC chief Shamsher Singh Dullo’s group SPOILERS: Infighting is both Akali and Congress camps Voters’ Mood: Mum’s the word. Atwal has the edge in rural pockets
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Top contenders: Vinod Khanna (BJP) and Pratap Singh Bajwa (Congress) Core Issues: Border area development, unemployment, drug addiction and connectivity. FACTORS AT PLAY: Khanna is accused of being inaccessibile and absent from the constituency Crowd Pullers: Arun Jaitley and Sonia Gandhi Voters’ Mood: While traders seem to be pro-BJP, farmers appear to be with the Congress
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Top contenders: Dr Daljeet Singh Cheema (SAD), Ravneet Singh Bittu (Congress) Core Issues: No industry, unemployment and drinking water shortage FACTORS AT PLAY: Rural vote will be decisive. Also, youngsters comprise more than 60 per cent of the electorate SPOILERS:CPM’s Mahan Singh Rori can make a dent in the Congress vote pie. Voters’ Mood: They are tight-lipped
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Top contenders: Navjot Singh Sidhu (SAD-BJP), OP Soni (Cong, BKN Chhibber (BSP) Core Issues: Development, especially revival of sick industry, incentives for border farmers. FACTORS AT PLAY: Celebrity Navjot Singh Sidhu is pitted against ‘son of the soil’ OP Soni. Sidhu claims he has not visited his hometown Patiala even once after becoming an MP. Soni says the MP has been busy with commercial programmes only Crowd Pullers: PM Manmohan Singh held a rally in favour of Soni, while BJP’ s PM-in-waiting LK Advani batted for Sidhu. Voters’ Mood: This one’s a tough contest. It’s a divided house in the holy city
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Top contenders: Sukhwinder Singh Danny (Congress) and Paramjit Kaur Gulshan (SAD) Core Issues: Power shortage, lack of potable water, poor infrastructure in Moga and Faridkot towns FACTORS AT PLAY: Support of Dera Sacha Sauda, anti-incumbency, absence of Jagmeet Brar from Danny’s campaign Crowd Pullers: No real glam quotient Voters’ Mood: Youth have shown keen interest in campaigns. Surprisingly, rural areas are more inclined to vote
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Top contenders: Dr Rattan Singh Ajnala (SAD), Rana Gurjit Singh (Congress), Surinder Singh Shahi (BSP) Core Issues: Drug menace, health and education FACTORS AT PLAY: Delimitation. Ajnala has to deal with new segments like Beas, Jandiala Guru, Zeera and Kapurthala, while Rana, a recognisable face in Kapurthala and Zeera, had to toil hard in the other segments Crowd Pullers: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s rally in favour of Rana Gurjit. CM Parkash Singh Badal and his son Sukhbir extensively campaigned for Ajnala Voters’ Mood: It’s complete silence in this traditional Akali bastion
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Top contenders: Pawan Bansal (Congress),Satya Pal Jain (BJP) and Harmohan Dhawan (BSP) Core Issues: Development, retaining city’s basic character. FACTORS AT PLAY: Jain and Dhawan talk about anti-incumbency, Bansal is banking on development Crowd Pullers: Mayawati, Lalu and Sushma Swaraj Voters’ Mood: Colony and village voters are enthusiastic
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Top contenders: Anurag Thakur (BJP), Narinder Thakur (Congress) Core Issues: Dhumal’s dynastic rule and development versus anti-incumbency are core issues in the CM’s home district FACTORS AT PLAY: Anti-incumbency against the Dhumal government and factionalism in both the Congress and the BJP has made it anybody’s game in Hamirpur Crowd Pullers: LK Advani, Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi and Virbhadra Singh Voters’ Mood: They are keeping their cards close to the chest
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Top contenders: Virbhadra Singh (Congress), Maheshwar Singh (BJP) Core Issues: Battle royale between two former rulers FACTORS AT PLAY: Virbhadra’s ‘larger-than-life’ image in state politics. Mandi strongman and scam-tainted former Communications Minister Sukh Ram’s silence may affect Congress prospects Crowd Pullers: Firebrand Gujarat CM Narendra Modi and sober AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi Voters’ Mood: Voters keep candidates guessing
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Top contenders: Dhani Ram Shandil (Congress), Virender Kashyap (BJP) Core Issues: Bad state of roads in the apple belt, price rise and currency note wad episode involving Kashyap. FACTORS AT PLAY: Anti-incumbency against two-time MP Shandil and the dubious electoral record of the BJP candidate, who has lost 10 elections, four to the Lok Sabha and six to the Vidhan Sabha Crowd Pullers: Sonia Gandhi and Sushma Swaraj Voters’ Mood: Indifferent
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Top contenders: Rajan Sushant (BJP), Chander Kumar (Cong) Core Issues: Both the BJP and the Congress are seeking votes on the development plank FACTORS AT PLAY: The Congress candidate is heavily relying on the caste factor. However, two OBC ministers from the constituency in the Dhumal government could neutralise the caste factor Crowd Pullers: Rahul Gandhi and Rajnath Singh Voters’ Mood: General indifference could affect voting percentage
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Parties’ focus: Getting caste equations right Ajay Banerjee writes from Uttar Pradesh The reason behind the lack of development and investment in Uttar Pradesh is clearly visible during the elections. Development is encompassed in one hollow promise: “Vikas Hoga”. There is no stress on ramping up the non-existent road and power infrastructure and there is no talk about brick lining of canals, building of new overbridges and restart of work on incomplete flyovers. Social development indicators like potable water, basic civic amenities and literacy rate never find a mention in this land. Power supply remains erratic. Even urban areas do not get more than 10-12 hours of supply. The eye is clearly on getting the caste and communal arithmetic right. The electorate stands bitterly divided, so much so, that even the inter-state bus stands are named after “BR Ambedkar” or “Ram Manohar Lohia” clearly indicating which party got them built. After travelling across more than two dozen constituencies and having heard out leaders of various parties, The Tribune found out that pre-poll issues of progressive states like Punjab, Haryana or Himachal Pradesh, are missing in UP. For example, in Punjab, leaders are vying to get their villages included in a World Bank project on drinking water. The candidates know the reality. “I am shocked at the lack of infrastructure here. In Andhra Pradesh, even villages that have 15 families have proper roads and power,” says former Indian cricket captain Mohd Azharuddin, who is contesting from Moradabad on the Congress ticket. Saleem Sherwani, a candidate from Badaun, says, “Development in the state is largely associated with the centre of power”. Sherwani may be right. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s village Safai has an airstrip, while BSP has spent some 5 crore on building parks adoring statues of Mayawati and Kanshi Ram. The sex ratio is lowest in the country in the Jat-dominated areas. On an average, it is nearly 840 females for every one thousand males. Female literacy levels are even worse. For example, in Mulayam Singh Yadav’s area, Mainpuri, it stands at dismal 51.4 per cent. Between Delhi and Muzzafarnagar work on four overbridges has been hanging fire due to one reason or the other. Not a word is being said when the project will restart. A long stretch of the road between Ghaziabad and Saharanpur is just mud and rubble. The British-era bridge across the Ganges near Badaun serves as a common road and rail bridge.
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DMK citadel under siege N Ravikumar Tribune News Service Chennai, May 12 CPI state secretary D Pandian, who is contesting from North Chennai, has become a well-known leader in the state as he raised his voice consistently against the war in Sri Lanka. Traffic woes, under-development, poor roads and public transport in North Chennai have evoked dissatisfaction among people here. Support for the AIADMK has increased in the area in the last few years and Communist parties and the MDMK have a strong presence in this commercial hub, with a concentration of labourers and poor people. Spokesperson of the DMK TKS Elangovan is not a well-known face and is facing the ire of residents for the “poor” performance of former DMK MP Kuppusamy. In Central Chennai, former Union Minister Dayanidhi Maran is in the fray and the presence of two Muslim candidates in a Muslim-dominated area is threatening his prospects. The AIADMK has fielded Mohammad Ali Jinnah and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, a Muslim outfit, has joined the race, with a popular Muslim leader. The large number of Muslims in Central Chennai are considered supporters of the DMK and the loss of their votes will erode the support for Maran. Another factor is that most of the North Indian families, who used to vote for Maran, have left for their native places for the summer vacation. The addition of a new industrial area, where the Communist unions are strong, is also not making his task easy. Maran has been struggling at Central Chennai, which returned a DMK candidate, even after the assassination of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who remains a beloved leader in Tamil Nadu. In South Chennai, called an elite consituency as it elected DMK founder Anna and former President R Venkataraman, the AIADMK has made strong inroads in the last few years. The party did well in the 2006 assembly elections. However, BJP state president L Ganesan has campaigned in a methodical way here and is likely to split the forward caste votes, which usually go to the AIADMK. But AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa's meeting in the constituency drew a huge crowd and a good response recently, promising a tough battle for the DMK.
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Alliance arithmetic may favour AIADMK Chennai, May 12 Ever since its inception in 1989, the party is doing well in at least 10 constituencies in the northern region. Even in 1991, when a sympathy wave swept the state following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, the PMK performed well in the area, repeating the same in 1996. When the party joined hands with Jayalalithaa in 1998, the alliance was successful and the BJP formed the government with the support of AIADMK. When the PMK switched to the DMK alliance in 1999, the alliance won again. The AIADMK, which formed an alliance with the PMK again in 2001 Assembly elections, came back to power and when the Vanniyar party joined the UPA in 2004, it won all the 40 seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The PMK, which had proved its ability to retain and shift its vote bank, irrespective of the alliance is contesting in six seats in the region, leaving the rest to the AIADMK, which has not shared the seats in the Vanniyar belt with any other party in the front. Besides the PMK, which has openly declared that the LTTE is a organisation of freedom fighters, Vaiko's MDMK has a good presence in the region and the Communists too have a vote share of their own. The alliance factor comes into play very strongly in this region, where the Congress is contesting only two seats, leaving the DMK to take on the formidable AIADMK alliance in other parts. The DMK and the Congress are hoping that pro-LTTE leader Thol Thirumavalavan can neutralise PMK's pro-Tiger votes and swing Dalit votes in the region towards the UPA. They are also expecting Vijaykanth's DMDK to split the votes of the PMK, since the actor has a strong base in the region. However, the electoral arithmetic is strongly loaded in favour of the AIADMK alliance, which is likely to help it in this region.
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Curd rice cadres
While workers of the Dravidian parties were enjoying non-vegetarian meals with soft drinks at the expense of their parties in Chennai, BJP workers, who are campaigning for their president L Ganesan in South Chennai are bringing food from their homes and mostly they are curd rice packets. Ganesan, an RSS disciple, has asked the party workers to bring food from their homes, they said. Amused at this sight, workers of the DMK and the AIADMK affectionately call the BJP activists as “thayir sore thondargal” (curd rice cadres).
— TNS Time to unwind
After a two-month-long gruelling campaign, most poll managers of BJP and Congress candidates in Delhi on Friday switched off their cell phones, took time off from work and rested at home. Some even took off for cooler climes. Voting took place in the capital on Thursday. Counting of votes will take place on May 16, which gives them ample time to steal a break after their hectic campaigns.
— IANS Spouse trouble
A spouse often doesn’t get dragged into the electoral battle between candidates. But that’s what is happening in the Mandi constituency of Himachal Pradesh. BJP candidate Maheshwar Singh is busy chastising not only his Congress rival and five-time Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh but also the latter’s wife and sitting MP Pratibha Singh. Speaking in the local dialect, Maheshwar Singh never forgets to tell voters: “Virbhadra ney itna dukhi nahin kiya jitna usadi laadi ney kita. Politics mein ladi ka bhi kaafi role hota hai (Virbhadra has not disappointed people as much as his wife. Spouses also have a crucial role to play in politics).”
— IANS |
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Exit polls
NEW DELHI: Television channels will be free to air opinion and exit polls after close of the fifth and final phase of the Lok Sabha elections on May 13. The Election Commission will lift the ban on opinion and exit polls at the conclusion of polling at 5 pm, Deputy Election Commissioner R Balakrishnan said on Tuesday. Counting of votes will take place on May 16. On April 14, the EC banned dissemination of results of opinion and exit polls by the media.
— PTI Extra vigil
MUZAFFARNAGAR (UP): The district authorities have deployed magistrates at Dalit polling booths in Kinomi village of Muzaffarnagar constituency which has a past record of violence during elections. Kinomi village comprises a large Dalit population and has a past record of poll-related violence, officials said. According to official sources, two magistrates have been posted at the polling centre in Kinomi village as the Dalit voters of the constituency have asked for protection during the elections to be held on Wednesday.
— PTI 16,000 held
CHENNAI: As many as 16,000 persons were arrested on Tuesday across Tamil Nadu with an aim to ensure peaceful Lok Sabha elections in the state on Wednesday. The arrested persons were those against whom warrants were pending. Seventytwo of them had been detained under the Goondas Act, the police said. More than 21,000 licensed guns had been kept in safe custody and the police was conducting regular search operations in hotels, lodges and farmhouses.
— PTI |
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In a democratic country, those framing the policies and running the show from behind closed doors should contest elections — Maverick CPM leader Subhas Chakraborty in an obvious reference to several CPM leaders Every party, every group is in negotiations and everybody is in everybody's touch. Our alliance, the NDA, will emerge as the biggest coalition and the BJP will be the largest party — NDA convener and Janata Dal-U president Sharad Yadav
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Voter’s guide Which is the right way to apply
indelible ink? Indelible ink is applied on a voter’s finger as a line from the top end of the nail to the bottom of the first joint of the left forefinger with effect from 1.2.2006
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Chandigarh/Jalandhar, May 12
