New Delhi, May 15
They are fondly called Amma, Behenji and Didi by their army of supporters.
And no government perhaps can be formed without the active support of all the three -- AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) president Mayawati and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Bannerjee -- or at least two of them.
With election results expected to throw up a hung Lok Sabha tomorrow, political observers acknowledge that the maverick troika, accounting for 50-60 seats, could make or mar the chances of the three major groupings -- UPA, NDA and Third Front. Will the three women go their own ways or be part of any single grouping in the formation of a new government? This is one big question doing rounds in political circles on the eve of counting. A close watch is being kept on each and every move of these women by poll managers of both the UPA and NDA as they scramble to shore up their respective numbers.
Jayalalithaa and Mayawati are expected to be in the capital in the next few days to strike the best possible bargain for themselves with the so-called front-runners for power and derive maximum benefit from the deal. The UPA, NDA and the Third Front are bound to face a hurcluean task while dealing with the two women, known for their unpredictable temperament and behaviour.
Jayalalithaa, who is expected to bag a major chunk of seats along with her allies in Tamil Nadu, is keeping all the cards close to her chest. It is no secret that top leaders of the UPA and the NDA are trying to woo her to their side even as Left leaders assert that she is with the Third Front.
As she basks in the media glare and remains “neutral” in her ideological stance, one thing is absolutely certain in the event of her support to the Congress: Withdraw support to her bete noire Karunanidhi’s government in Tamil Nadu, in exchange for her support.
Mayawati, now an undisputed leader of the Dalits, surprised everyone when she won the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh two years ago with a well-crafted ‘social engineering’ formula. If the magic formula has worked in the Lok Sabha elections also will be known only tomorrow, though exit polls are giving her 25-30 seats. Will she go with the UPA or join forces with the NDA? Another possibility being speculated is that she may play the Dalit card to the hilt and ask the Third Front to back her for the prime ministership. If that happens, she could even go to the Congress or the BJP to seek their outside support for such a dispensation.
Mamata may be as temperamental as Jayalalithaa and Mayawati are but she is one politician who has never hankered for power. Known for her strident opposition to the Left in West Bengal, she is a fiery speaker and a street fighter. Mamata left the NDA and fought the Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the Congress. She is likely to spring many a surprise when the results are out and the Left Front appears prepared for some major jolts.
But what if the UPA gets the Left’s support again for the formation of a secular government? Mamata may well be left with no choice but to part ways with the Congress in that scenario.
