New Delhi, June 9
For people sweltering in heat wave conditions courtesy hot winds from across western borders of the country, the news is not so positive. Meteorological analysis suggests subdued monsoon activity during next two-three days, in all meaning that moisture-laden winds from East are not likely to provide relief from scorching heat in the northwest so fast.
Currently, heat wave conditions are prevailing over pockets of northeast Madhya Pradesh that are likely to continue during the next 48 hours. Meteorological analysis suggests development of heat wave conditions over parts of Punjab, Haryana and north Rajasthan during the next 48 hours. Indian Meteorological Department director SC Bhan says: “No major relief is likely in sight during the next 3-4 days”.
Experts have reason to believe that all may not be too well with the progress of monsoon. According to a senior meteorological expert, since monsoon this year arrived one week in advance ideally, it should have also progressed in the same way.
“In ideal situation by this time the monsoon flow should have started covering Gangetic plains after turning from Bay of Bengal, bringing in moisture and cooling to northwest plains. By this time air-coolers generally start becoming ineffective. Development of heatwave conditions in Haryana and Punjab mean that flow of moisture-laden winds are not reaching here,” he says.
Apparently, the second pulse has not been as strong as the one that first hit the Indian mainland. Data updates also show that monsoon is not in a active phase and is likely to remain subdued.
Southwest monsoon rain, vital for the country’s agriculture-based economy, arrived in India set in early over the entire Andaman Sea and parts of the south Bay of Bengal this time, brightening prospects of their early arrival over the rest of the Indian mainland
Economists say it is imperative for monsoon rains to be normal in their spatial and temporal distribution since water levels are at precariously low levels in some major reservoirs of the country.
Studies indicate that even though the country-wide average of monsoon rains have more or less worked out to be normal or near normal, the deficit in some regions have caused havoc while some other regions have had abnormally higher rain. Since distribution is becoming disturbed, farmers are also being advised to adapt themselves to these changing patterns.
Various reasons have been attributed to the erratic behaviour of the much-awaited weather phenomenon in the country, including increasing surface temperature of oceans. If the ocean gets warmer, rainfall is delayed and is much more intense.
Incidentally, the IMD’s long range forecast south-west monsoon season (June to September) suggests that the rainfall for the country as a whole is like.
