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Punjab 2009 was a dip in SAD run, will it rebound this time? Razor’s
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Battle of two turns three-way by Ruchika M Khanna The high-stakes battle between the age-old rivals SAD-BJP and Congress has been opened to a third front, AAP. Thus going to the polls on April 30, Punjab is witnessing one of the most intensely fought elections with the fate of many heavyweights on the line.
For the first time in the state, there is a credible third contender in the fray in the form of AAP, besides the ruling SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress. Even as the main parties refuse to acknowledge publicly that AAP has made inroads into the state’s political arena and maintain that its impact would be restricted to a few urban pockets, top leaders and strategists of the parties are concerned that it will eat into their vote bank. As its reach grows, the ground situation and political fortunes of the big guns in the fray becomes more fluid.
The strategy When the SAD decided to announce its candidates much before the code of conduct came into force, it was hoping to sweep the election. Buoyed by the success of his party in the 2012 Assembly polls, SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal had orchestrated the crossing over of two Congress MLAs into his party, besides several important leaders from the Malwa region. Though the BJP is facing the urban voters’ wrath over the imposition of new taxes, it is riding high on the ‘Modi wave’. A dejected state Congress had almost given up the fight before the battle was announced. However, it was resurrected and is now in the reckoning after the party’s central leadership fielded its top leaders from key constituencies.
Tough contest Interestingly, till almost three weeks ago, top leaders of each party, who were dismissing AAP, have been forced to re-strategise their campaign to counter AAP. In at least five seats — Patiala, Sangrur, Ludhiana, Faridkot and Gurdaspur — the candidates fielded by this novice party are now witnessing interesting triangular contests. Candidates from other parties like BSP, CPI, CPM, SAD (Amritsar) and Samajwadi Party have also jumped in the fray. Since AAP is feeding on anti-incumbency votes — and with both Congress and SAD facing anti-incumbency — its candidates are weaning away a sizeable portion of voters from both parties, especially in Amritsar and Gurdaspur. But what benefits the SAD-BJP alliance is a perceptible ‘Modi wave’, especially in urban areas. On the other hand, the Congress is devoid of any such "charisma" emanating from its top leadership and is relying largely on personal efforts of its candidates, with even the Sikh Prime Minister giving the state a skip for campaigning.
The issues The major issues that have emerged in this election are new taxes and high power tariff imposed by the cash-strapped state government; rising inflation due to poor policy planning by the Central government; and the "cartelisation" of sand mining, liquor and transport business. How far can the parties neutralise these issues to woo the politically aware voter of Punjab, is to be seen. 'Will ensure fair poll'
— VK Singh, chief electoral officer, Punjab
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2009 was a dip in SAD run, will it rebound this time?
Since the parliamentary elections in 1967 — the first after Punjab was divided on linguistic basis a year earlier — the state has recorded a high percentage of voter turnout, ranging between 50 per cent and over 70 per cent. The 1992 elections were the only exception when Punjab recorded 23.96 per cent polling on account of a boycott call by the SAD. Prior to this, the state had remained under President’s rule because of militancy. The CPI won two seats in 1971 and one in 1999, while the CPM won a seat in 1977. The Janta Dal won a seat in 1989 and IK Gujral, who was victorious from this seat, became the Prime Minister. In the same year, the SAD (Mann) won six seats. The BSP also has had its occasional successes in Punjab, even though Punjab has one of the largest numbers of Scheduled Caste population. The BSP won a seat in 1992 and three in 1996. Among the regional parties, the SAD had its best performance in the post-Emergency era when it won nine seats in 1977. It won seven seats in 1985, six in 1987, and eight seats each in 1996, 1998 and 2004. In the 2009 elections, it won four seats, the BJP one and Congress eight.
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The political parties in
Punjab need to be wary of "the silence of the lambs"— the
voters who will finally speak their mind through the ballot when the
state goes to the polls on April 30. Punjab’s 1.95 crore voters,
including 9.35 lakh first-timers, are all set to exercise their
franchise.
With
Ambika Soni, political secretary to Congress president Sonia Gandhi;
Capt Amarinder Singh, former Chief Minister; Partap Singh Bajwa, PPCC
chief; and Sunil Jakhar, leader of the Opposition in Punjab Vidhan
Sabha, throwing the hat in the ring, the entire election atmosphere has
changed.
The election will be the
most closely fought, especially in Amritsar and Bathinda. If the barbs
fired by former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and his opponent from BJP,
Arun Jaitley, have become the talking point in the state and on national
television, the "family drama" between Bathinda MP Harsimrat
Kaur Badal and her estranged brother-in-law Manpreet Singh Badal, too,
has generated the interest of voters.
Poll officers and staff will ensure a free, fair and peaceful election in Punjab. Over two lakh civil and security personnel and 40 observers will work extended hours in the coming few days for a successful election. The Election Commission has set strict benchmarks and I am hopeful that we will be able to perform as per the expectations of the people and the
commission.
Voters in Punjab have always ensured that the politicians do not take them for granted. Even the tallest of Jat leader like Devi Lal, who became the Deputy Prime Minister of India, was defeated from here with a huge margin in 1989, while the state also gave the nation its Prime Minister in IK Gujral, who successfully contested from the Jalandhar seat on a Janata Dal ticket supported by the Akalis in 1989. Though a small state with only 13 parliamentary seats (four reserved), Punjab has always played an important role in the formation of all Central governments.
People of Punjab have ensured that politicians remain in touch with their constituencies, and a failure to do so is not accepted. Every party has had fluctuating fortunes here. In 1977 and 1998, the Congress was wiped out with no seat, but in 1980 and 1992 (when the Akalis boycotted polls) it won 12 seats. Similarly, the best performance of the BJP (earlier Jan Sangh) has been in 1967, 1977, 1998 and 2004, when it won three seats. But it scored a duck in 1971, 1980, 1985, 1989 and 1996.