A Pak take on China-US ties

This  century's future will be largely defined by the relationship between a rising China and a resentful America. China has so far risen peacefully. Over 40 years, the US and China have developed an interdependent economic and a largely cooperative political relationship. The positive tone of the two Xi-Trump summits generates hope that China and America may yet avoid the Thucydides Trap (which postulates the inevitability of a clash between an established and rising power).

President Xi Jinping has outlined China's rather modest objectives: to become "a moderately prosperous country" and a "fully modern" economy and society by 2035 and "a global leader of composite national strength and international influence" by 2050. 

On the other hand, Trump's 'America First' slogan is a signal of a determination to win back the economic, political and strategic pre-eminence which the US enjoyed over the last 70 years. Fortunately, Trump has so far stepped back from his campaign denunciations of China and erosion of the 'One China' policy and focused instead on securing Chinese cooperation to confront the North Korean nuclear threat and to redress the Sino-US trade 'imbalance'. 

In the economic sphere, the US enjoys several advantages: the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency; the US heavily influences, if not controls, global financial markets; it sits at the top of several 'supply chain' networks, and maintains a (narrowing) lead in new technologies. But 'demand' in the US economy is low since people's 'basic needs' have been met. Manufacturing jobs have been lost offshore due to high wages and aging equipment. They are unlikely to return. The US growth is not more than three per cent.

China's growth has been driven to a considerable extent by exports and investment. It is now vulnerable on the external front given rising Chinese wages and Western trade protectionism. However, trade dependency is a two-way street. And, the Chinese economy will continue to grow due to rising demand from: the 300 million Chinese who are even now emerging from poverty, the expanding consumerism of China's 'middle class' and the trillion dollars to be invested in projects under the historic Belt and Road Initiative. 

The US retains a significant military edge over China. Its $600 billion military budget is more than four times larger than China's. However, China is rapidly developing the capacity to confront or neutralise America's military advantage. Of course, America's Asian military alliances are formidable. China's only strategic and military 'partner' now is Pakistan. But to a large extent, China will be able to circumvent the US and 'allied' naval dominance across the Indo-Pacific through the Belt and Road connection. Second, China is building strong economic and military links with a resurgent Russia which will amply balance US’ Asian alliances. Finally, India, if not Japan and Australia, may turn out to be a 'fake friend'. China is its largest trading partner; while India will welcome America's economic, military and technological largesse, it is unlikely to confront China militarily, especially not to advance US interests.

Most importantly, the outcome of the strategic rivalry between China and America will depend on the vibrancy and credibility of their respective systems of governance. China's 'socialist democracy' is now seen as a most effective form of government. In contrast, the US political system seems to be broken, divided and corrupt. 

In such circumstances, Washington would be wise to consider seriously Xi Jinping's proposal to create "a community of a shared future for mankind".

By arrangement with the Dawn