An ill-conceived feud

Hasan Suroor

Just when you think things in the Muslim world can't get worse, they promptly do; and invariably the new crisis is self-inflicted. Witness the wholly unnecessary and ill-timed fight that four Arab nations — Saudi Arabia,  the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt — have picked up with  Qatar accusing it of promoting extremism, hobnobbing with their arch rival Iran, and using Al-Jazeera  (Arabic) TV as a propaganda tool to undermine its neighbours and boost extremist voices. Now in its fourth week and with no early settlement in sight, it’s the gravest internal crisis to hit the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since its inception in 1981

At a time when the region is already volatile and struggling to hold itself together, the last thing it needed was another potentially destabilising crisis. It risks plunging the neighbourhood into further chaos with a knockdown effect on global economy as both Saudi Arabia (the world’s largest oil producer) and Qatar (the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas) are important players on the international economic stage. There are also concerns over security repercussions of a prolonged dispute. The feud, though simmering for long, erupted without any apparent immediate provocation on June 5 (shortly after Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh) when the Saudis and their allies abruptly broke off all diplomatic, commercial and travel relations with Qatar. Saudi Arabia has closed its land border with it while flights to and from Qatar to these countries have been banned. And Qatari citizens have been forced to return home causing severe disruption to family lives. The intention clearly is to inflict maximum damage on Qatar's economy.  As the bulk of its food supplies come by land through its border with Saudi Arabia, its closure has made imports a lot more expensive, besides causing shortages, panic buying and rise in prices. The ban on flights would seriously hurt Qatar's thriving tourism and aviation industry. 

This is the second such attempt in three years to isolate Qatar, and intended to punish it for its failure to honour the promises it gave to end a similar row in 2014. But the reality is a little more complex than that. It’s true that Qatar has links with a number of controversial Islamist groups, including Muslim Brotherhood, but for the Saudis to make such a big deal of it sits awkwardly with their own history of flirting with all sorts of unsavoury characters — not to forget the alleged involvement of Saudi citizens in the 9/11 attacks. Besides, Wahhabism remains the most potent source of global Muslim extremism. The real story of this feud is part of a wider power struggle in the region, resulting in intense rivalries. 

There are also historical tensions and personal dynamics of Gulf leaders at play. Qatar has always been viewed with suspicion by its bigger neighbours. They see this tiny state of just a little over two million people as an upstart using its newly-acquired wealth to punch above its weight in regional and world affairs. Saudi Arabia, particularly, resents Qatar's ostentatious show of its financial muscle and independence. The Saudis are used to demanding and getting respect, if not always obedience, from the junior kids on the block; and are irritated by Qatar’s irreverent behaviour. 

The move has been greeted with dismay in Western capitals. Initially, Trump came out in support, but since then the American administration has rowed back with the State Department publicly rebuking the Saudi coalition. Its spokesperson Heather Nauert used some strong words to  cast doubts about the GCC’s actions and motives, saying, “The more that time goes by, the more doubt is raised about the actions... At this point, we are left with one simple question: Were the actions really about their concerns about Qatar’s alleged support for terrorism, or were they about the long-simmering grievances between and among the GCC countries?” 

 In another sign of its continued confidence in Doha, America finalised a 12 — billion dollar arms deal with it. Washington is understandably concerned as Qatar hosts the largest American military base in West Asia which it uses to launch military operations against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq —  and it doesn’t want any trouble.  So far, its attempts to mediate have failed. If anything, the Saudi alliance has ramped up the pressure. It has presented a 13-point charter of demands, giving Qatar ten days to comply with it, or face consequences though these have not been spelt out. The demands include shutting down the Al-Jazeera network, curbing ties with Iran, closing a Turkish military base, and “stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organisations that have been designated as terrorists by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt”.  Qatar has dismissed them as “unrealistic”. Even independent observers say the demands are too sweeping and stringent for any self-respecting country to accept. 

The row highlights the changing political landscape in the Gulf: the era of cautious Arab leaders whose sole priority was to maintain stability is very nearly over, replaced by a crop of comparatively young, adventurous, and brash rulers whose ambitions trump stability. Saudi Arabia's new effective boss, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is among them. After leading his country into a disastrous military adventure in Yemen, he has now blundered into an ill-timed confrontation with Qatar. But — like Yemen — it’s turning out to be a miscalculation. Qatar may not be everyone's darling, but on this occasion it's widely viewed as a victim. The GCC itself is divided with two of its members--Kuwait and Oman--not joining the boycott. No wonder, Doha seems in no mood to blink first. 

Meanwhile, both sides are being urged to exercise restraint, but the pressure clearly is greater on the Saudi camp. Any settlement, however, will be only temporary unless the underlying causes of the dispute are addressed. For starters, the Saudis will have to come to terms with the reality that the world--not least the Gulf — has changed and they're no longer regarded as the sole guardian of the Muslim world, or its spokesmen. There   are new players with their own vision for their countries, and ideas of what is best for their national interest. And they will not take dictation from Riyadh.  But the tone of the ultimatum to Qatar smacks of the same old insular and authoritarian mindset. It ignores the increasing diversity of the region's rapidly changing political environment. Qatar is a product of this environment — and this crisis an outcome of an unwillingness to acknowledge it.  The rest is surround sound. 

 — The writer is a London-based commentator.