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Complex conflict zone

THERE is a tragedy of unimaginable proportions unfolding in the Syria- Iraq conflict zone and big powers which once contributed to the stabilisation of potential conflict situations during the Cold War are now perpetrators of the worst human rights violations.

Complex conflict zone

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Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (retd)

THERE is a tragedy of unimaginable proportions unfolding in the Syria- Iraq conflict zone and big powers which once contributed to the stabilisation of potential conflict situations during the Cold War are now perpetrators of the worst human rights violations. Each time it appears that the human race would learn from its mistakes and that world institutions existent to prevent such carnages would become stronger. Exactly the opposite happens. The current round in the five-year-old Syrian conflict and the 30-month-old Iraqi conflict situation essentially goes back to the 2003 US intervention in Iraq for regime change.

It is a first-ever situation of media blackouts from a conflict zone. Ever since the ISIS (Daesh), other surrogates and lesser elements unleashed their concept of extreme cruelty and depraved behaviour with prisoners it has been impossible to get genuine media men to report from inside the conflict zone. Information, therefore, is one sided and second or third hand, based upon who is providing it. The groups involved place much of the news on social media wherever internet connectivity is intact. The humanitarian situation is one of the worst witnessed in any conflict zone for long, with an estimated 2.2 million people evicted and homeless. This adds to nearly half the pre-civil war population of Syria now in a state of displacement and there is more around Mosul, the northern Iraqi stronghold of Daesh. Water and food supplies are stretched to the limit and UN and other humanitarian agencies are at risk with premature entry without ceasefire due to the sheer nature of the fighters. Ceasefire is a word which has little meaning in this environment. There have been numerous attempts to hammer out the agreement but the February to September 2016 ceasefire held in patches.It failed once the Russian and Iran-backed Assad regime pushed for strategic advantage to wrest Aleppo. 

Aleppo's location will give any military mind an instant deduction; it is strategic, located closer to the Turkish border and is sufficiently nestled to the East to cover Latakia, the only port that the Russians have the facility of in the Mediterranean with the nearby air base. The recent surge of Russian military activity and backing to the Assad forces appears to be partially due to the urgency to complete operations before the transition in Washington. US support to the rebels forces during the Obama administration has been hesitant and for good reason. There are just too many rebel groups in loose coalitions with little command and control. The US does not have an effective policy in place nor the right controls to allow its support developing into stronger resistance. It has to chart a careful path as those aligned with the Syrian rebel groups include the Jabhat al Nusra and even the Al-Qaida. 

Empowerment of the rebel groups indirectly strengthens these anti-US elements also. The control over Syria is in patches, without intact frontlines making support to an anti-government coalition challenging. Conversely, the forces of Assad and his allies, Hezbollah, Russian and Iranian special forces and Russian airpower have greater intact territory to operate from. The role of Turkey in this conflict has been significant with Recep Erdogan joining the Saudi-Qatar effort to arm the Syrian Sunni rebels. A contentious issue was always the small 30-man sub-unit Turkey maintained inside Syrian territory for the upkeep of the tomb of Suleiman Shah, grandfather of Osman the founder of the Ottoman Empire; it has since been vacated along with the mortal remains. Although Russia-Turkey relations have improved marginally after the low after the Turkish shooting of a Russian fighter jet in 2015. NATO’s military presence at the Turkey-Syria border is viewed suspiciously as was its awkward stance in the facilitation of leakage of ISIS fighters into Syria till late in 2015. 

On the eastern flank is Raqqa, the virtual capital of Daesh. However, it is not a weakened Daesh which holds the city but the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) funded, armed and sponsored by the US to which 200 more US Special Forces personnel are being added. Raqqa in SDF hands means advantage US. With Mosul under siege and the dominant role being that of the Iraqi Army and US Air Force plus the Kurdish Peshmerga and the Turks also joining in, there is a mish- mash of forces minus the Russians. Iran does not appear to have a frontline role although it is a Shia-dominated Iraqi Army which is the dominant element. Sooner than later, Mosul will fall and the rump Daesh elements would make a beeline for Raqqa and for Aleppo. Hence the necessity to have at least Aleppo in Syrian and Russian hands; the urgency is high and hence ceasefires are being broken before they are even agreed upon. All the urgencies involved in the battles for Mosul and Aleppo are creating humanitarian crises in which the ICRC and the UN aid agencies are struggling.

Many are pointing to the inability of the UN doing anything to put an end to violence. There is not much the UN can do.  "Syria has become an experiment lab for geopolitics between US and Russia and failure of UN and the international community". 

It is this situation which Donald Trump is going to inherit on Inauguration Day and for all his contacts with Vladmir Putin it is unlikely Russian interests are going to be compromised by the Russian leader. Once Aleppo is in the hands of the Assad forces a degree of consolidation can commence.

The future looks as complex and confused as the present. Iraq's Prime Minister Abadi is now closer to Assad. For Shia power to proliferate Iran's outreach to the Hizbollah is equally important and for that Iraq's cooperation is necessary. In a post-Daesh configuration (whenever it emerges), it is the Iran-Saudi proxy conflict which will continue. To set the stage for that the populations of all the important cities of Northern Iraq and Syria continue to pay a huge price. 

The writer, a former General Officer Commanding of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, is now a Fellow with the Delhi Policy Group.

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