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Enemy at the gates

THE situation in the Maldives brought to the fore once again the dilemma of how far India should interfere or whether to interfere at all in its neighbouring countries in South Asia.

Enemy at the gates

Keep distance: Male should be left to deal with its internal politics the way it deems fit.



MK Bhadrakumar

THE situation in the Maldives brought to the fore once again the dilemma of how far India should interfere or whether to interfere at all in its neighbouring countries in South Asia. The predicament used to be acute in the past in regard of Nepal and Sri Lanka, where India has had a long history of interference in their internal affairs — until fatigue set in lately.

 In Nepal, India had patronised and manipulated almost all political constituencies at one time or another, set them against each other or dumped them unceremoniously when they ceased to be of use. But in a chastened mood, Delhi adopted a ‘hands-off’ policy when the recent elections took place and allowed the democratic process to gain traction, finally. The result has been a landslide victory for the communist parties. Delhi didn't attempt to drive wedges between the two main communist parties or undermine their resolve to merge with each other. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Kathmandu in a goodwill gesture even before the communist government took over. And all this despite the false narrative that electoral politics in Nepal takes the form of a contestation between ‘pro-India’ and ‘pro-China’ forces.

 In Sri Lanka, the regime that came to power three years ago after the ouster of the ‘pro-China’ President Mahinda Rajapaksa stands thoroughly discredited. In the recent local council elections, Rajapaksa was back with a bang with a crushing victory. Again, Delhi has been on a learning curve and realises that there hasn’t been any difference between the present and previous regimes in Colombo in their policies toward China. The most audacious expansion so far of Chinese presence in Sri Lanka took place under the present ‘pro-India’ regime, which handed over Hambantota Port last December to China Merchant Port Holdings on a 99-year lease in a $1.4 billion deal. Delhi watched helplessly. Ironically, it was left to ‘pro-China’ Rajapaksa to put up resistance to the dilution of state sovereignty in a part of his political backyard. Meanwhile, two Indian counter-offers to balance the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka — management of  Trincomalee Port and Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport — are gathering dust in Colombo. Truly, the regime change project in Sri Lanka three years ago with the single-minded objective of exorcising Chinese presence on the island has floundered.

 When it comes to the Maldives, the picture is more hazy. India appears to have worked closely with the Anglo-American project to install the ‘pro-West’ former President Mohammed Nasheed back in power, replacing ‘pro-China’ Abdulla Yameen. The China bogey once again surged in the Indian (and Western) discourses. The two Indian statements on the situation in the Maldives following the controversial ruling by the chief justice of the Supreme Court on February 1 were intrusive and threatening. But there has since been a perceptible course correction — an easing of the pressure on the ‘pro-China’ regime in Male. For 12 days already, Delhi has not spoken. On its part, through a steady stream of pronouncements,  the Chinese foreign ministry has conveyed a willingness to work jointly with the international community to facilitate inter-Maldivian dialogue. Of course, the good part is that India refrained from a military intervention in the Maldives, which would have been a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter and fraught with serious negative consequences. Any attempt by Delhi to coercively assert its authority over the Maldives would only have undermined India’s efforts to become a pole of attraction in the region.  

 However, the basic issue remains — China’s expanding presence in the region that constitutes India’s immediate neighbourhood. It lies at the core of India’s angst. The West is fuelling this angst in its own interests. And the pervasive Sinophobia that has been whipped up within India — with patronage in no small measure by the Indian security establishment and the nationalist forces that mentor the government — prevents a realistic assessment. For a start, we completely overlook that India’s small neighbours who zealously safeguard their national sovereignty from our intrusive policies toward them will be no less vigilant about any predatory Chinese agenda.

China will continue to pursue an active foreign policy in the South Asian region and its pursuit of economic engagement across the region, including India, is poised to accelerate. Our entreaties to the neighbouring countries to reduce their engagement with China fall on deaf ears.

 The increasingly sophisticated middle class elites in these countries view China as a driver of growth for their tepid economies and a check on Indian hegemony. Yet, ironically, they are far from convinced that China is the metropolis. Therefore, the future of India’s standing in the region will significantly depend on the state’s ability to secure a civic identity to its citizens. Using the instrument of nationalist mobilisation may be a short-term approach to avoid political challenges, but in the external domain, it creates disquiet. The point is, India’s neighbours do not necessarily concur with the notion of India being the main guarantor of security in its immediate neighbourhood. Our elite assumes that India can prevail in a globalised world only if it succeeds in cementing its regional hegemony. But there is a contradiction, since status-quo thinking is unsustainable in the globalised world.

India’s foreign and security policy is, quintessentially, pragmatic and geopolitically focused rather than value-based. India’s overriding foreign policy goals are to establish itself as one of the important global powers, but, curiously, India’s understanding of multilateralism in international affairs is a mere variant of multipolarity involving a handful of big powers — a selective and instrumental use and understanding of multilateralism. That is India’s predicament, too. India supports multilateralism as long as it affirms its great power status. Alas, such thinking is deeply rooted in the mindsets of the elite and accounts for the rigid zero-sum game approach shaping India’s attitude towards its small neighbours.

In the past, China has tried to show respect for India’s dominance in the region. PM Modi’s assumption of office in 2014 visibly raised expectations in Beijing. In a comparable situation in Central Asia, China has deferred to Russia on security and political matters due to the overriding concern that instability in the region will be detrimental to China’s economic interests and could threaten its stability. China appeared to have nurtured a similar attitude vis-à-vis South Asia — be it Nepal, Sri Lanka or Afghanistan. But unlike Russia, India did not show interest to test the efficacy of strengthening regional stability in league with China. Meanwhile, attitudes noticeably hardened since the Doklam faceoff. Nonetheless, the Maldives could provide a beginning.

The writer is a former ambassador

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