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India and big power play

THE Indian policymakers witnessed through the past week an extraordinary display of kinetic force in the United States-Russia-China triangle, which has been at the core of the strategic pattern of the contemporary world.

India and big power play

POWER MEET: US First Lady Melania Trump (R) and US President Donald Trump (2nd R) welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd L) and his wife Peng Liyuan (L) to the Mar-a-Lago estate in West Palm Beach, Florida, on April 6. AFP



M.K. Bhadrakumar

THE Indian policymakers witnessed through the past week an extraordinary display of kinetic force in the United States-Russia-China triangle, which has been at the core of the strategic pattern of the contemporary world. The triangle remains a key variable in the emerging redistribution of global power. Its dynamics can potentially impact Indian interests in regional security. Life is always simpler when clear-cut options are available and sharp choices can be made. But what makes the triangle intriguing is that it is no longer possible to attribute to it a pattern of zero-sum gaming, as in the Cold War era. 

In the current mode of the US-Russia-China triangle, contradictions and conflicts go side by side with common interests. Equally, economic globalisation and political multi-polarisation deprive that triangle of the exclusivity it had previously enjoyed. The Indian strategist faces an intellectual challenge to reset his US-centric foreign policy compass to adjust to the new trail for major country relations.Each of the three protagonists in the US-Russia-China triangle enjoys in geopolitical terms varying degrees of strategic depth so that even a teaming up of two of them against the third will not necessarily result in complete triumph. Small-time players walk in and walk out of the stage all the time, too, adding to the unpredictability in regional security environment.

The Russian-Pakistani "thaw", Russia-Taliban proximity, Russian-Iranian strategic cooperation, Russia's "return" to Afghanistan — these are symptomatic of the new challenges — and opportunities, too  — that Indian strategists are encountering already. The meeting between the US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida (April 7-8) and the visit by the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to Moscow (April 11-12) put new signposts on the trajectory of the US-Russia-China triangle. The summit in Florida principally underscored that the US and China can engage in successful dialogue and place stress on the stability of their relationship. A four-pronged high-level dialogue mechanism was established as an expression of shared interest to follow the "principles of non-confrontation, no conflict, mutual respect and win-win cooperation,” as the Chinese side puts it. The US-China Comprehensive Dialogue will henceforth be overseen by the two Presidents, who also established a new cabinet-level framework for negotiations and decided to give themselves 100 days to discuss the issues in trade. Clearly, the path is opening for a more serious strategic Sino-American understanding. There is already some evidence that the US and China supplement each other's efforts to pressure the North Korean regime against conducting more nuclear tests. Trump announced last week that he no longer proposes to label China as a “currency manipulator” and, interestingly, he explicitly linked this decision to China's helpful role in the North Korean problem. The government-owned China Daily commented that Trump's decision "provides further proof that China and the United States are warming to each other."Again, Trump openly complimented China for its abstention last week in the UN Security Council vote on Syria instead of joining Russia in vetoing the western draft resolution. 

Suffice it to say, the world's two dominant powers sense that their long-term interests lie in the deepening of their ties. The bottom line is that neither can lead the world order alone. China understands that although the US may be a depleted power, it is the number one world power and China's interests lie in not choosing to be against America. For the US too, cooperation with China maximises American influence. 

The well-known American strategic thinker Zbigniew Brzezinski recently summed up the paradigm: "To the extent we have worked together (with China) over the years since the normalisation of relations, it has not been for the evil purpose of war or conquest, but for the good of enhancing the security and stability required for each to pursue their own interests... To put it in sharper, if seemingly paradoxical terms, if America tries to go it alone in the world without China, it will not be able to assert itself.” 

On the contrary, Tillerson's talks in Moscow brought out that US-Russia ties are at their lowest point since the Cold-War era. Both sides say they are dissatisfied with this state of affairs. But any significant improvement in the relationship will need much dedicated effort and may take time, given the pervasive Russophobia within the Washington establishment. The talks in Moscow didn't gloss over the fact that stark differences exist on a number of issues ranging from Russian military backing for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Ukraine to “colour revolutions”, from cyber crimes, hacking and data thefts to election interference. While Trump continues to sound a hopeful note that relations with Putin and Russia might one day improve, his once-warm embrace of Russia has appeared to chill. 

What is there in all this for India? For a start, it will be a disservice to the Indian interests if Trump fashions a policy in which China becomes the US' partner both in the quest for regional and wider global stability— even if it is with an eye on the far less predictable Russia, which looms large in the American calculus as the likely rival to overreach in near term. Of course, the probability is low that China would lend its shoulders for the US to isolate Russia, because Beijing and Moscow also jointly push back at American hegemony. But then, Chinese pragmatism is legion and the present Chinese leadership's burning desire to become America's leading partner globally cannot be underestimated. Put differently, Indian interests will be profoundly affected if a crucial segment of China's regional geopolitical outreach — its close relations with the Central-Asian states, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran — also become targets of a global Sino-American accommodation. What cannot be overlooked here is that there is no serious conflict of interests involved here. In particular, the US can learn to live with China's growing presence in Afghanistan — unlike the spectre of Russia's “return” to Afghanistan haunting Washington — or to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. 

Simply put, China and the US are potentially stakeholders in Afghan settlement and in Pakistan's stabilisation, which of course is also linked to Pakistan's tensions with India. 

New thinking is needed on India's part to anticipate the evolution of the US-Russia-China triangle. This does not seem to be happening yet, if, for example, its recent unwarranted foray into the "Tibet-related issues”, which China regards as affecting its core interests, is any indication — or, for that matter, our so-called “muscular policy” toward Pakistan, which is a nuclear power with multiple options open to it in the geopolitical realignment. 

The writer is a former ambassador.

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