It’s neck and neck in Gujarat

Manas Dasgupta

In the last four Assembly elections of Gujarat, one could safely predict a BJP victory without the risk of being proved wrong. But not this time. Even as the BJP claims to secure 150-plus seats and the Congress is hoping to bag around 120 in the 182-member House, the elections of 2017 are a neck and neck contest. And in case a pro- or anti-Narendra Modi wave were to set sail, either of the two parties sweeping the poll will surprise none in Gujarat.

Urban-rural divide

In the 2015 local body elections, the Congress swept the polls in the countryside and it was considered to be a one-time aberration. Since then, three factors have brought about a clear rural-urban divide: 1) the impact of demonetisation that caused immense hardships to the farming sector that largely depend on the co-operative banking system; 2) the failure of the government to provide remunerative prices to the farmers for their produces; 3) the absence of adequate governmental assistance to the people hit by natural calamities. This divide may get reflected in the coming elections. That is if, as promised by the government, the hardships caused to the trading community due to the "faulty implementation" of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) are mitigated before the polling on December 9 and 14. If not, a larger chunk of the urban votes may also go the Congress way. 

While many urbanites have forgotten the suffering and many had even taken it as the "price" for the "unearthing of black money", not many in the farming community seem to have forgiven Modi. The RBI banning rural cooperative banks from changing the demonetised notes had caused immense hardships to the ruralites, 90 per cent of whom depend on cooperative banks. Many farmers had to miss one crop as they had no money to buy seeds or fertilisers and were hardly amused by the promise to unearth black money or convert the country into "digital India." 

The BJP leaders are taking the impact of demonetisation lightly, seeing the record-breaking victory in UP as a sign of its acceptance and believe that rural Gujarat too would follow suit. 

Casteist politics

Casteist politics is not new in Gujarat; it has ruled supreme in the elections since 1980 till Modi's communal politics in the aftermath of the 2002 riots replaced it. With Modi and the BJP this time purely depending on "development" to take the party through, the Congress has revived the casteist politics through the support it has garnered from Other Backward Classes (OBC) leader Alpesh Thakore, Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and Patel community leader Hardik Patel. Particularly in rural Gujarat where caste may rule the roost. 

Not that the BJP is ignoring the caste factor: in selecting its candidates: the ruling party has taken due care. But except for the "Patidars" who stood divided between the Congress and BJP, to which it was cent per cent loyal for the last three decades, most other caste combinations are this time favouring the Congress in the villages.

BJP vs Cong factors

The likely anti-incumbency factor, particularly when its "magic" leader is away in Delhi though he maintains a remote control both over the party and the government in the state, has forced the BJP to drop several sitting candidates and also to accommodate many "parachute" candidates who were promised ticket to break them away from the Congress. But this has caused heart-burning among the loyal workers. Internal disturbances over the selection of candidates are common in parties but become intense when the expectations grow, as it is this time. Since the Congress is virtually fighting a last-ditch battle for political supremacy in Gujarat, the infighting in it is marginally less but has not totally disappeared. A major problem that the Congress faced is its own state unit president Bharatsinh Solanki, considered to be a liability for the party. Besides his sullen image, Solanki has not been able to hold the party together. Many leaders such as former chief minister Shankarsinh Vaghela and Vijay Kella, among others, left the party in protest against Solanki's handling of affairs. It was the first time in many years that the Congress had not changed the state president on the eve of elections to demonstrate unity in the party, but many believe that it may prove to be a blunder. 

Rahul vs Modi

The Congress campaign mainstay — the national Vice-President Rahul Gandhi — also suffered from a poor image, particularly when compared to his main competitor, Modi. Rahul has aroused a keen interest among a section of the voters, both in the urban and the rural areas, during his recent campaign tours of the state. With all parties having mastered the art of crowd-pulling, attendance in the public meetings is no longer a criterion to judge any party's popular support. It is also not clear how much of the pro-Rahul image will survive Modi's "carpet-bombing" when he addresses over 50 public meetings in the last 15 days of campaigning. 

Which party has the edge?

Is the BJP invincible in Gujarat? Consider this: in the elections that the BJP contested under Modi, the number of seats only showed a marginal decrease directly benefiting the Congress. In the height of communal polarisation of votes following the bloody carnage, the BJP claimed 127 seats in 2002, an increase of 10 seats from what it clinched under the leadership of Keshubhai Patel in 1998. But in 2007, the party lost the 10 seats to return at 117 and further declined to 116 in 2012. In contrast, the Congress which had won 53 seats in 1998, declined only by two to 51 in 2002 despite the strong "Modi wave," and went up again to 59 in 2007 and to 60 in the last elections. 

History favours the Congress this time. Except in the 1980s when non-Congress parties were virtually wiped out from most parts of the country, first due to failure of the Morarji Desai government and later because of the sympathy wave following Indira Gandhi's assassination, Gujarat has voted differently in the Assembly and the Parliamentary elections since 1975, except for the six years of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government when the BJP was in power both in Deli and Gandhinagar. By this yardstick, it should be the turn of the Congress to take over in Gandhinagar since the BJP is holding forte in Delhi, unless the BJP's campaign this time that the same party government at the centre and in the state would be the key for Gujarat's development impressed both the urban and rural voters. But none of these calculations would work if the "Modi magic" descended on his home state on these crucial days of December 9 and 14.

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Main hurdle for Congress 

A major problem that the Congress faces is its Gujarat unit president Bharatsinh Solanki as he is considered to be a liability for the party. 

Main hurdle for BJP

While many urbanites have forgotten the suffering caused by demonetisation, not many in the farming community seem to have forgiven Modi.