Keep cool on AQ Khan’s loose nuclear talk

Lt Gen Raj Kadyan (retd)

Every development brings its own problems. Modern communication technology is no different. It has made us keyboard happy. With the speed of communication reaching near instant level, and given the human desire to always "be the first", we tend to act faster than we can think. Social media is a particularly dicey medium in this respect. Fingers begin to act even before the brain gets engaged. Often we land up sending messages without due deliberation.

Take the case of recent remarks by Pakistani national Abdul Qadeer Khan about his country's reported capability to hit Delhi in five minutes. Our anger went viral with almost a matching speed. Facebook, WhatsApp and Twitter were dense with reactions critical of Indian political and military hierarchy. “Why hasn't the Army Chief spoken?", "What is the Defence minister doing?" Some even castigated the Prime Minister for not making a statement. "After all," the missives said, "it is the question of national morale." And there were other reactions, even angrier and more bizarre. We need to give the issue a cool, deliberate thought. 

First, who is Abdul Qadeer Khan? He is a Pakistani nuclear physicist, who founded the uranium enrichment programme for Pakistan's atomic bomb project. Khan founded and established the Kahuta Research Laboratories (KRL) in 1976, serving as both its senior scientist and Director-General until he retired in 2001. In January 2004, the Pakistani government detained him on US-provided evidence of his active role in nuclear weapons technology proliferation in other countries.   He was placed under "official" house arrest and remained so till 2009, when Islamabad High Court had him released and allowed him free movement inside the country. That makes him a person who certainly has nuclear knowledge, but also someone looking for publicity. His utterances need to be seen in that perspective.  

Second, what has he said? He has merely stated an easily guessable fact. Nothing more.  Recall the background of Pakistan going nuclear. Pakistan began development of nuclear weapons in January 1972, after the humiliating military defeat by the Indian Army and its break-up. It was also a response to the development of India’s nuclear programme. Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was the prime mover and made a commitment  to have the bomb ready by the end of 1976. When the programme lagged behind schedule, Abdul Qadeer Khan was brought from Europe by Bhutto at the end of 1974. Reportedly, Pakistan was ready to detonate a bomb by 1984. However, as Abdul Qadeer Khan himself has disclosed, then President Zia showed reluctance for fear of adverse world reaction and apprehension of aid drying up.  Finally, on  May 28, 1998, a few weeks after India's second nuclear test (Operation Shakti), Pakistan detonated five nuclear devices in the Ras Koh Hills in Balochistan.

 The background leaves no doubt that Pakistan's nuclear programme was, and remains, India specific. That being so, they have to design weapons and missiles that can target India, their main perceived adversary. And what better nuclear target than its capital, Delhi? Kahuta, their nuclear nerve centre, is under 700 km air distance from Delhi. Most of their missiles would have much larger range than that and should be able to reach it. When AQ Khan says they can target Delhi in five minutes, he is perhaps talking of the flight time of a missile. That is a mere statement of fact. Khan's undoubtedly irresponsible boast must not be misconstrued as Pakistan's policy or plans of actually doing so. Launching of a nuclear attack on another nuclear power is totally a different matter and has never happened so far. Many more intricate factors would be involved in any such decision. 

There is absolutely no need for Indian officialdom to start reacting to statements made by a private individual. That should be left to the intelligentsia; editors, commentators and panelists. In any case, what Khan has stated should be too well known to Indian planners. And necessary counter-measures would undoubtedly be in place. Mature countries should eschew making official statements  on a subject as serious as use of nuclear weapons.  

Our “no-first-use” policy is well known to the world. Despite the sabre-rattling, Pakistan is unlikely to resort to use of nuclear weapons, unless some erratic decision maker has suicidal tendencies.  Because in the unlikely event of a nuclear exchange, while India has the capacity to absorb a strike, Pakistan would disappear from the map.                               

The writer is former Deputy Chief of Army Staff.