Merkel’s political crisis

S Nihal Singh

IN a curious way, the whole brave European enterprise in the shape of the European Union is dependent upon the fortunes of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It is becoming clear each day that, despite her generous and noble desire to welcome Syrian refugees fleeing war, her country and her people can no longer bear the load, with 1.1 million refugees having already arrived.

Little wonder then that Ms Merkel undertook a second trip to Turkey to persuade her hosts to do more to stem the tide of refugees seeking European shelter. And Turkey’s rulers, particularly President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is exploiting his vantage position by extracting further concessions from the European Union he desires to join.

 In fairness, Turkey has its own legitimate problems in looking after some 2.5 million refugees for whom the EU has already pledged $3.1 billion. And another lot of some 30,000 have arrived on its border after the combined offensive of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and Russian air attacks in Aleppo. It is a matter of time before it will open its border yet again to take them in, instead of looking after them on the Syrian side of the border.

As events have taken shape, the traditionally self-assured German Chancellor, in power for a decade, is fighting for her political life. Apart from the fringe elements and their expected opposition, her own Christian Democratic Union is rebelling at the scale of the refugee influx and the burden it places on the country’s systems and infrastructure. Her immediate aim thus is to stem the tide while tightening the norms for accepting yet more refugees.

In hindsight, Ms Merkel was perhaps too generous in her welcome of the refugees without calculating the political costs. Her cause has not been helped by some truant elements among refugees harassing and sexually assaulting women at New Year’s Eve celebrations in Cologne and elsewhere. Besides, at least one, if not more, of terrorists who perpetrated the Paris killings came as a refugee, to the alarm of European governments.

The character of the European Union, starting as the European Coal and Steel Community, has changed, with the liberal democratic model no longer the rule among member states, with Hungary sticking out like a sore thumb, now joined by Poland under its new conservative dispensation. In any event, the absorption of many East European countries was meant to tilt the end of the Cold War in the West’s favour. The crisis over Ukraine’s political orientation implies that the West overreached in disregarding the legitimate regional interests of Russia, forgetting the bloody nose President Vladimir Putin gave it over Georgia and Moldova.

The truth is that as the most dynamic economy on the continent, Germany has become the obvious leader, a task Ms Merkel has performed with discretion and competence. In view of its Nazi past, today’s Germany has tilted towards Israel by installing outward symbols of expiation, in the process being plainly unfair to the Palestinian cause.

Europe and the world can only hope that Ms Merkel can surmount her domestic crisis in order to continue to provide the leadership the EU desperately needs. Given the state of the West’s relations with Moscow and the latter’s help to the Assad cause, un-entangling the Syrian civil war is destined to take even longer, with the pressure of refugees multiplying.

The problem, of course, is that the concept of visa-free travel is an essential part of the EU idea and although many member states, including Germany, have had to institute new border checks in the face of the refugee crisis, Ms Merkel will have to lead the way in ensuring that they remain temporary. The problem is linked to the ability of the southern states to guard their external borders better.

The tragedy for the EU is that not only is Ms Merkel’s own political future at stake, but the vision that gave it so much glow seems to be missing. Nations change and so do their citizen’s outlook. The younger generation has not felt the great prosperity the enterprise brought to the lives of the parents’ generation because the boom years are past and the young have been at the receiving end of recession and lean times.

 Yet despite the string of crises the EU is facing, the inherent strength of the founding fathers’ idea of Europe should make itself felt. The advantages of the enterprise are so obvious, given the history of European wars and two world wars, that responsible leaders should help Ms Merkel to marshal the forces. Let it not be said by posterity that at a time of unprecedented crisis, most European leaders failed their people.

Europe has a limited period to ensure that the size of the refugee crisis does not become uncontrollable. Summer will tend to increase the number of refugees finding their way to Europe in whatever way they can. Ms Merkel is seeking Turkish help because she knows that a political compromise on the Syrian civil war, the root cause of the refugee crisis, will take time to achieve. She has floated a new idea, of European nations selecting refugees from a pool in Turkey for sharing the burden. But it begs the question because except for a few, member states will take in only a token number. Under Western pressure, Moscow has proposed a ceasefire in Aleppo from March, with its contours and timing uncertain. As is the case with other outside actors, Russia is making its own geopolitical point in retaining its relevance to the future of the Middle East. 

The question thus boils down to a simple equation: Will Turkey play ball and at what cost? If he is wise, President Erdogan should resist the temptation of striking too hard a bargain. Perhaps he will achieve his ambition of securing visa-free travel for Turks in the EU, but he should know that if the present crisis takes its logical course, there may be no visa-free travel.