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On the Persian carpet

Prime Minister Narendra Modi''s visit to Iran took place at a time when the West- Asian region is engulfed in a tragic, brutal turmoil which is not going to end any time soon.

On the Persian carpet

Shared past, bright future? A conference at Pembroke College, Cambridge, in 2014 on the theme “From Timur to Nadir Shah, Connecting India, Iran and Central Asia” focused on the close ties between the two ancient civilisations.



C.R. Gharekhan

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Iran took place at a time when the West- Asian region is engulfed in a tragic, brutal turmoil which is not going to end any time soon. Iran is heavily involved in turmoil, especially in Iraq and Syria; in the latter country, it is, out of its own interests, fighting to save the Assad regime. In Yemen, the Iranians are alleged to be helping the rebel Houthis, though some experts are of the view that the Houthis are complaining about the lack of support from Iran. Saudi Arabia and Iran are playing a high-risk game that could be potentially be very expensive for both.

 Hopefully, Modi did not offer his good offices to reconcile the two rivals since we will only end up upsetting both. On its eastern front, Afghanistan, which is getting more complex by the day and more deadly too, presents another challenge to the Iranian leadership. Modi  would have the benefit of getting first-hand  Iran's perspective of the regional situation, as he would, to convey his reading of the  situation in South Asia with special reference to Pakistan, which, despite everything, will  remain  close to Iran. Modi enjoyed two advantages during his important visit to Iran which the UPA government did not. 

Firstly, the oil prices have declined dramatically, which makes the market for oil a buyers' market. Oil producers have to sell oil at a time when global production has remained undiminished in spite of slowing demand. Iran is keen to reach pre-sanctions level of its oil production as soon as possible. Secondly, the sanctions regime, from which Iran suffered for a decade and which forced Iran into serious and ultimately successful negotiations with  the US over the nuclear issue has ended. This makes it possible for  India and other countries to trade with Iran, without the American sword of Damocles hanging over them. Furthermore, while Iran will never forget or forgive us for our negative vote against it in IAEA, it is pragmatic enough not to let it influence its diplomacy in the short term. As for the Iran-Saudi tensions, not a single country is letting that come in the way of cultivating both. For some, such as Pakistan, they pose a delicate challenge, given its special relations with Saudi Arabia as also its proximity to Iran. Nawaz Sharif has paid a visit to both capitals. Modi's visit came not a day too soon. Leaders of almost all important countries have lost no time in visiting Tehran. The first to do so, within a week of the end of sanctions, was President Xi Jiping who signed 17 agreements and announced that the Iran-China annual bilateral trade will touch the staggering sum of $600 billion in 10 years —12 times as much as in 2014 and 10 times the India-China trade today. Xi also hyphenated Iran and Saudi Arabia since he visited them both in the   same trip. Modi paid a standalone visit to Tehran which his hosts would surely have appreciated. The Prime Minister's visit has been highly successful, going by the agreements and MoUs signed, 12 of them.  The most significant from the point of connectivity, economic cooperation and security was the bilateral contract on development and operation of Chabahar port between Indian Ports Global Private and Arya Banader of Iran. The  development of Chabahar port was offered to us in 2003 by the then Iranian President Khattami, but India perhaps did not see all the advantages it offered us and did not follow up; there was also, of course, the   American factor.

Modi and his team gave high priority to Chabahar and managed to conclude the deal. Even the Iranian President has declared Chabahar as a significant development for boosting bilateral and regional connectivity and economic advantages. India will build two terminals and five jetties. EXIM bank will extend a line of credit of $150 million; Modi has mentioned a total Indian investment of $500 million for Chabahar. There are other significant MoUs regarding setting up an aluminum plant, etc. Another document of great significance concluded during the visit is the Trilateral Agreement on Transport and Transit Corridor between India, Iran and Afghanistan. President Ghani travelled especially to Tehran to sign it. The timing for this agreement was opportune since Ghani has by this time been thoroughly disillusioned by his experience with Pakistan, which did not fulfill any of his expectations to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table and thus was ready to respond to India's overtures. The bilateral on Chabahar and the Trilateral together should act as the game changer for the three countries as well as for the region. The Iran-India joint statement issued on May 23 is a substantive document. The Iranians are tough negotiators. Nevertheless, this writer was pleasantly surprised to find the Iranian President graciously expressing appreciation for “India's stance and support” to Iran during the period of imposed sanctions, adding that the Iranian people will never forget the positive role India played during that period. The statement noted the potential for cooperation taken by NALCO in building the Chabahar-Zahedan railway. (According to MEA's website, this could involve an investment of $1.5 billion over 10 years.) Replicating Modi's innovative idea in China, the joint statement talks of promoting cooperation between States of India and Provinces of Iran. There is also a reference to the development of Farhad B gas field. (Some reports suggest that if Farhad B is not exploited in near future, Saudi Arabia might begin to drain away the gas since the gas deposits straddle both countries.

A particularly satisfying feature of the joint statement is the section on terrorism. It urges an immediate end to all support and sanctuaries enjoyed by terrorist groups and individuals and declares that States that aid, abet and directly or indirectly support terrorism should be condemned. It calls on States to dismantle terrorist infrastructure and end all support to terrorists using their territories to harm other countries. 

The visit to Iran was one of the most important and productive visits Modi has undertaken so far. It is specific and has identified concrete areas where the two countries can cooperate to genuine mutual benefit. But everything depends on follow up, implementation, an area where our record has been dismal. Recognising these lacunae, the leaders have decided to establish working groups, some at the ministerial level, to ensure top level decisions are implemented. Let us hope for the best.      

The writer is India's former Permanent Representative to the UN

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