Political rumblings beyond the Vindhyas

Vibha Sharma

With the country entering the home stretch for the General Election, political rumblings can be heard across the four states in southern India.

Currently, political parties from Andhra Pradesh, Telengana and Tamil Nadu and their representatives in Parliament are seen in the forefront of stalling proceedings in the Houses on issues concerning the respective states. Yet, the question is: are the concerns being raised now to address the altering landscape - the expansion of the Bharatiya Janata Party across the Vindhyas?

Upset over the denial of a Special Category status to Andhra Pradesh, Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu led his Telugu Desam Party out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and stood with its chief opponent — the YSR Congress — to corner the Narendra Modi government in Parliament.

After sharing power both at the Centre and in the state for four years, the TDP found the denial of the status as an apt issue to reap political dividend, while neighbours in Telengana and Tamil Nadu stirred the cauldron over equally emotive issues of raising of quota of reservation and the constitution of the Cauvery Water Management Board.

The BJP is not perturbed over Naidu's move. The BJP sees it from the prism of Naidu's growing worries over the increasing spread of the saffron base and the TDP losing ground in Andhra. Likewise, the BJP views the situation in Telangana as being a result of the vaulting ambition of KCR, as K Chandrasekhar Rao is known, to craft an alternative political front ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

"This is not the first time that Chandrababu Naidu has walked out of the NDA. This time, it shows he is worried about TDP's future," GVL Narasimha Rao, BJP's latest entrant to the Rajya Sabha, feels. 

Interestingly, last year, when reports of tension between the BJP and TDP began to surface, as the BJP's pointsman for the state, the then Union Minister M Venkaiah Naidu, observed: "The BJP and TDP are working together well. Our expansion (BJP) in Andhra Pradesh should not be an objectionable thing as it is natural for political parties to grow on their own, it is very premature to draw conclusions at this stage on an alliance with TDP in the next polls". 

BJP’s expansion plans

Well, the BJP believes the "success" of president Amit Shah's carefully crafted "vistaar yatra" last year rattled the regional parties. In Telangana, Shah maintained that the state would prove to be BJP's "stepping stone" for its foray in the South.

The southern states together account for 130 Lok Sabha seats -- Andhra Pradesh (25), Telengana (17), Tamil Nadu (39), Karnataka (28), Kerala (20) and Puducherry (one). And it will be a mistake to ignore this major contribution for the next Lok Sabha. Currently, the BJP MPs' contingent from the south stands at 21: two from Andhra, where the party contested along with the TDP, 17 from Karnataka, and one each from Tamil Nadu and Telengana. 

The region offers a whole lot of scope and is a good enough reason for Modi-Shah to keep focus here while drawing plans for 2019. For the BJP, these three states will allow consolidation for the party just as Assam and Manipur did in the North-East.

The BJP's plus point is its strike rate of success when it goes alone. In those terms, it senses the maximum potential from the two Telugu speaking states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana and the neighbouring Karnataka, where the lotus bloomed several years ago.

Party chief Amit Shah directed Andhra leaders to explain to people the Centre's position, emphasising on what the Modi government did for the state and how it is willing to do much more than just granting the Special Category status.

Relations with allies

Dismissing TDP charges of not following the "mitrapaksh (allies) dharma", the BJP accused it of "backstabbing" and falling into the trap set by the YSR Congress that upped the ante on the status issue. "The BJP cannot sacrifice its political interests to make its allies happy. We are committed to friendly relations and coalition dharma, but it could not be at the cost of suppressing its own interests," explains Rao, juxtaposing that the party suffered in Punjab on account of its commitment to coalition dharma even when the cadres wanted to separate from the Akalis.

Far from being distressed over the break-up, BJP Andhra cadres are in a celebratory mood at the thought of building on their own or, at best, courting emerging players in the form of YSR Congress and cinestar Pawan Kalyan, who is set to launch a new party. Kalyan is brother of former Union Minister and superstar Chiranjeevi, and belongs to the influential Kapu community.

The BJP is building its Telangana case on alleged minority appeasement by KCR, who argues that his reservation pitch is not guided by religion but by the desire to help weaker sections of Muslims. KCR also suspects a "Delhi conspiracy" to dethrone his government, leading to speculations of Assembly polls ahead of the scheduled May 2019 date.

In the centre of personality-based politics of TN, where it is still considered an "outsider", the BJP's hunt for partners continues. A section in the party feels alliance with cinestar Rajnikanth is better than AIADMK, on a downhill, post Jayalalithaa. It's a season of new parties in the state and AIADMK's sidelined leader TTV Dinakaran has launched one of his own, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam. And, if his success in the constituency previously held by Jayalalithaa is any indication, there is more to Tamil Nadu's political landscape than the BJP may have anticipated. 

Politics of religion

Karnataka is one state where the BJP is on a firmer footing. Besides issues of governance, farmers' distress and stronger presence of Janata Dal (Secular) of HD Deve Gowda should traditionally cut into the Congress votes. Yet, Congress Chief Minister played a twin card by granting separate religion status to powerful Lingayat community, to which BJP's Chief Ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa belongs and offering a separate State Flag.

The season of politics has just begun. 

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