Righting the wrong of history

S Nihal Singh

IT was a moment filled with great symbolism when the Kurds cast votes in a referendum seeking independence for the autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq. The world has turned against the Kurds now as the colonial powers did in dividing up the Middle East after World War I. And a people 30-million strong spread across Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria never got a state of their own.

 The countries ranged against Kurds are many. The US, which has used and armed peshmergas, rated the best fighters on the ground to chase the Islamic State and its supporters out of Iraq and Syria, is afraid of the break-up of Iraq. Ironically, it was the US which enforced a no-fly zone over Kurdish areas that enabled the Kurds to administer their corner, which evolved into the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Iraqi Kurds’ neighbours have parochial concerns of their own restive Kurds receiving encouragement from the referendum.

Yet Kurds are people who were gassed by Saddam Hussein’s forces at Halabja. Turkey has been fighting its Kurds in a war of attrition, with its leader in prison for several years. Iran is nervous of its own Kurds and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has issued stern warnings to Kurdish leaders. Syria is similarly inclined.

Despite the avalanche of protests and threats, the result of the referendum, a 93 per cent turnout with an overwhelming vote for independence, is a historic landmark because Kurds, who have pined for their own state for generations, have put their problem upfront not to be brushed away under the carpet. There are, of course, a sea of problems in taking the independence issue forward. Nothing is simple in the Middle East, fighting two major wars and innumerable other problems, including a Saudi-led war in Yemen and the split in Arab ranks by Saudi Arabia leading a boycott of fellow Qatar on flimsy grounds.

In Iraq itself, the picture is complicated by the oil-rich Kirkuk region, with a mixed population, in Kurds’ possession. In 2014, Iraqi troops ran away from the region against the onslaught of the Islamic State and Kurdish forces fought and won the area, with a stipulated deadline for consultations of residents long past. Baghdad stopped funding the KRG over differences forcing Erbil, capital of the Kurdish region, to export oil through Turkey, which is now threatening to switch off the tap. Baghdad’s initial reaction has been to stop international flights to Kurdistan, but this is in the nature of opening shots in a long game.

Yet in a sense Mr Masoud Barzani, the KRG president, has shrewdly calculated his move. He realises that the best time with ground fighters helping the US in eliminating Islamic State forces, is when the task remains unfinished. And perhaps he believes that the plight of his people will prick the conscience of the world in gradually undoing the great injustice done to his people.

With President Trump in power in Washington, his policies remain unpredictable. Thus far, he has cemented alliances with Saudi Arabia and Israel. The American aversion to the Kurds’ referendum simply flowed from the logic of not further complicating a messy Middle East’s problems. Whether his administration’s approach to the Kurds will evolve over time remains to be seen. Iran’s influence over post-Saddam Shia majority Iraq is well known, with Shia militias doing much of the fighting to protect the state. There are reports of Iran as well as Turkey moving troops to the KRG border.

As in the past, the Kurds are fighting a lonely battle, but this time they have nailed their flag to an overwhelming vote for independence of their state. Obviously, their neighbours fear contagion from their brethren inspired by the Iraqi Kurds seeking an independent state, however tortuous the journey ahead.

An independent Kurdish state has to cross many hurdles before it can become a reality. In the short term, Baghdad is making life difficult for those in authority in the Kurdish region, stopping flights as an opening gambit and Turkey’s President is threatening to turn off the tap for the region’s oil exports, which provide 90 per cent of its revenues. The central Iraq government stopped the region’s subsidy as punishment for its unofficial oil exports through Turkey choking the land-locked region. Iran has closed its air space to Kurdistan. Iranian Kurds reportedly cheered the Iraqi Kurds’ referendum. And Iran and Turkey have conducted military exercises on Kurdistan border.

One of the several ironies is that Mr Najmaldin Karim, the governor of Kirkuk fired by the Iraqi government, remains in office because the Kurds still control the area. Kirkuk is, of course, a disputed area between the Kurds and Baghdad and is one of the many issues that remain to be resolved. Thus far, Baghdad is refusing to countenance the departure of Kurdistan.

Inevitably, this tug of war can turn ugly because most of Iraq’s neighbours side with Baghdad for their own reasons. Whether President Trump can change the scenario once the Islamic State is finally thrown out of Iraq and Syria remains to be seen. Mr Trump’s own inclinations would be not to complicate his problems further in his effort to divest as much international responsibility as he can, despite giving the war in Afghanistan a fillip.

 In the meantime, Mr Barzani seems to have achieved something by refusing all entreaties to postpone the referendum and demonstrate to the world how overwhelmingly the Kurds desire a state of their own. It is an arduous task requiring years of dedicated work. Among former American diplomats, Mr Peter Galbraith has been an avid supporter of the Kurdish cause and other sympathetic observers point out the raw deal given to Kurds. With a large part of Kurdistan’s neighbours and the world against its cause, can the Kurds still emerge victorious? They have justice on their side even as the demands of realpolitik militate against Kurds. Kurds and their supporters hope they will win in the end.