Some more Pak bashing

KC Singh

SEPTEMBER, diplomatically, heralds the UN General Assembly’s high-level segment flagging off the next annual session. While India heads to New York annually to shape global agenda, it is wary of Pakistan’s machinations and its inevitable Kashmir fixation. In recent years, lack of India-Pak political engagement, reassertion of military’s dominance over the Nawaz Sharif government and the civil disturbance in the Kashmir valley since Burhan Wani killing in 2016 has emboldened Pakistan to fan unrest and protest its occurrence for international attention. 

This year freshly minted Pakistan PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, if anything, sharpened the anti-India rhetoric, reflecting frustration and the Pakistan army’s increased hold over the India file. Although a junior Indian diplomat, using India’s right to reply, responded in kind, dubbing Pakistan ‘Terorristan’, the debate since then has swirled whether thereafter External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj should have taken the high road like Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who refused to dignify President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran, the nuclear deal brokered by President Obama and the Islamic regime by joining a verbal spat. He simply rebutted charges and chided the US President for inappropriate language at the UN. 

Ms Swaraj began sensibly with a tour d’horizon of global challenges like regional tensions, climate change, sustainable development, freedom of the seas, cyber security and terrorism. Turning to Pakistan, she captured the crux of the problem with a one-liner that while India battles poverty, Pakistan battles India. But thereafter her peroration slipped from statesmanship and injured dignity to domestic electioneering mode of hyperbole and finger-pointing, painting entire Pakistan with a broad brush of radicalism and terrorism. It played well domestically and PM Modi instantly tweeted approbation, but the question lingers whether a majority of the nations saw it as an India-Pakistan slanging match distracting from pressing global problems or appropriate riposte to a terror abettor. BJP spokesmen on television argued that Pakistan needed a scolding, irrespective of the time and place of the encounter. Affirmation of the isolation of Pakistan is seen by them in BRICS communiqué naming Pakistan-sponsored terrorist groups targeting India, President Trump’s Pakistan bashing in his Afghanistan policy statement and similar formulation adopted by US Defence Secretary James Mattis during his India-Afghanistan visit. 

That Pakistan bashing provides vicarious delight to an average patriotic Indian is a given. It also, more importantly, creates a distraction from the persistent bad news on economy, poor GST implementation and repeated instances of iffy governance in some BJP-run states, particularly UP, left to an administratively inexperienced monk with misjudged priorities. PM Modi’s resurrection of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC), unceremoniously disbanded on his assuming power, shows acceptance that a problem exists. But his choice of economists for that council confirms that he was not seeking fresh advice as he picked past defenders of, what no less than The Financial Times called, bad policy choices by him personally like demonetisation. 

In the meanwhile, the Army Chief, Gen Bipin Rawat, warned Pakistan about a repeat of the “surgical strike” if errant conduct persisted. While PM Modi can always surprise by yet another about turn in his Pakistan policy, but with the crucial state elections approaching in Gujarat and then next year in bellwether states like Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as indeed Congress’ last southern bastion Karnataka, it is unlikely that a Pakistan, itself headed to elections next year, would be engaged differently. It shall be more stick, or at least it’s waving, than carrots. 

India also seems to be relying on US-Pakistan relations getting more strained as Trump ratchets up pressure on Pakistan to stop it from aiding and abetting the Taliban and the Haqqanis in their Afghanistan operations. However, the US finger-pointing and India’s threat of calibrated action across the LoC and naming and shaming of Pakistan at international level may or may not deter the Pakistan army beyond a short period as they will devise a counter-strategy. Logically, they would prioritise by accommodating US concerns by a deft combination of dissimulation and compliance. Relations with India fall in the non-negotiable box and thus would remain open to the usual mix of provocation and denial. 

From India’s point of view, this is hardly a sustainable Pakistan policy. Coercion, when power differential between two foes is not vast, can produce uncertain outcomes. This is particularly so because China is the real challenge for India. The immensity of China’s rise is reflected in an article in The Economist. China today has 89 unicorns (startups valued over $1bn), approaching the valuation of those in the US. There are 609 billionaires in China compared to 552 in the US. China is far ahead of the US in the number of electric cars and as well as network of charging stations. Where India has produced software behemoths dependent on foreign markets but unable to create full spectrum brands, Chinese entrepreneurs have been able to use the Chinese market to perfect new businesses that are penetrating markets abroad. 

The founder of Nio, a three-year-old company, combines cloud computing, artificial intelligence and sensing technologies to master autonomous driving. This is when India is still tweaking its driving tests to ensure proper driving skills and road sense. That is like comparing a bullock cart to the Chinese car. Didi, another Chinese startup, pools cars, minibuses/buses and luxury cars, providing 20 million rides per day in China, topping Uber’s customers worldwide. Didi has invested in Ola in India, Grab in South-East Asia, 99 in Brazil and Lyft in US. Next rising companies are harnessing bike-sharing in big cities, which are environment friendly and will decongest city centres. 

India, meanwhile, has been unable to translate the PM’s manufacturing and job creation slogans into reality. It needs to rethink its China and neighbourhood policies, with more inventive diplomacy. Viewing even a humanitarian issue like the Rohingya through a sectarian and security prism is Islamophobia disguised as counter-terrorism. With four out of eight SAARC nations being Muslim majority, can such a vision sustain successful neighbourhood management? But if the revamped EAC or cabinet reshuffle is a determinant, Modi likes change as long as change is likeable.

The writer is a former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs