South Asia needs more bridges than walls

S.N.M Abdi

THE new train and bus services between Kolkata and Dhaka, via Khulna, flagged off during Sheikh Hasina's recent visit are small change compared to the vast, untapped potential for cross-border transportation in South Asia and its periphery. Seamless connectivity in one of the world's most densely populated and volatile regions — dominated by India, Pakistan and China — is a hostage to trust deficit among the three warring nuclear-armed states. 

Today, India would give its right arm to clinch rail-road connectivity with Afghanistan through Pakistan. In 1947, an India-Afghanistan frontier existed but Pakistan's illegal occupation of a big chunk of Jammu and Kashmir wiped it off the sub-continental map. If we can somehow recapture territory that is rightfully ours, then an India-Afghanistan border will once again become a ground reality. At present, we have no option but to request Islamabad to throw open its roads to cars, buses and trucks from India. Our bilateral relations are so strained that Pakistan keeps stonewalling our overtures for an overland transit route to Afghanistan. On record, Pakistan cites “technical issues” and “inter-ministerial delays” but its real concern is security-related. Islamabad's logic seems to be that why grant India a passage to Afghanistan when New Delhi's real objective is neither trade nor tourism but to open a new theatre for covert war against Pakistan.

If Pakistan is so distrustful and paranoid, New Delhi is even more wary of Chinese intentions in eastern and North-Eastern India. We have been systematically undermining the proposed Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) highway from Kunming to Kolkata via Mandalay, Chittagong, Dhaka and Silchar in Assam, promoted by a Track II group to boost tourism and trade. China considers it an offshoot of its rapidly expanding One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. India fears that the BCIM highway will not only facilitate espionage and subversion by China — which Atal Bihari Vajpayee cited as the reason for India's 1998 nuclear tests in his written explanation to Bill Clinton — but also flood India with Chinese goods worsening the trade imbalance. As India-China ties worsened over our Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) bid, Beijing's soft corner for Masood Azhar and pursuit of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and our patronage of Taiwan and the Dalai Lama, there was a suggestion from Nirupama Rao, no less, that India should test China's real intentions by exploring the possibility of reviving the old land route between Lhasa and Kolkata, via Nathu La in Sikkim, and air connectivity between Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang province, and New Delhi. Rao spoke two months ago but South Block ignored her advice, revealing India's phobia about developing communication and connectivity with China.        

As Pakistan dug its heels in over granting India access to Afghanistan, the Narendra Modi government inked the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) Motor Vehicle Agreement for Regulation of Passenger, Personal and Cargo Vehicular Traffic. India gloated over BBIN proclaiming that sub-regional cooperation is the answer to Pakistan's intransigence and validation of Modi's strategy of “SAARC — minus-one” by integrating SAARC countries, leaving out Pakistan. But India's joy proved to be short-lived. Bhutan pulled out of BBIN, citing environmental concerns over lakhs of cars, buses and trucks polluting its pristine, rarefied atmosphere. Thimphu, in all  probability, acted on Beijing's instructions to embarrass New Delhi for opposing China's OBOR plan, particularly BCIM and CPEC. India's repeated entreaties haven't melted Bhutan's heart so far, indicating China's growing clout in the secluded Himalayan nation which we think is in our zone of influence.

Frankly, does it behove a country of India's size and military might shuddering at the thought of Chinese trains running from Lhasa to Kathmandu in our backyard? We also get panicky over reports of Chinese railheads in Tibet in close proximity of Arunachal Pradesh.  The nervousness is not a new trait of the Modi era. We were equally shaky during the Congress rule. On the one hand, we try to sabotage BCIM and oppose the full-scale revival of the old Silk Route through Nathula, but on the other we hanker after connectivity between India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan envisioned in the yet-to-be-implemented BBIN pact. We talk in hushed whispers about the security threat China poses but openly say that six-lane roads between China and India via Bangladesh, Myanmar or Thailand will destroy our industry and economy. True, last year India's trade deficit with China climbed to $46.5 billion in bilateral trade of nearly $71 billion. Won't Indian businessmen flood Bangladesh and Nepal markets with their goods when the BBIN pact becomes operational?    

Even without BBIN, India has been singularly lucky in cajoling Bangladesh into granting transit facilities through its territory — dramatically shrinking the distance and cost of transportation between our mainland and far-flung North-Eastern states. Besides roadways, India makes full use of Bangladesh's railways and waterways, including sea ports. India's penetration is in stark contrast with facilities given to Bangladesh. A day after Hasina and Modi pressed buttons to inaugurate new train and bus services, Muhammad Azizul Haque, a retired Bangladeshi ambassador complained in Dhaka's Daily Star that although Nepal and Bhutan are in close proximity of Bangladesh, India hasn't granted them transit rights through its territory. 

India's good fortunes vis-à-vis Bangladesh apart, seamless connectivity in South Asia is still a distant dream. The biggest players like India, Pakistan and China — which enjoys observer status at SAARC — have a lot at stake. If they really want frontiers to dissolve for trade, tourism and people-to-people contact, they must sit across a table, air their worst fears and extract iron-clad guarantees of good behaviour before lowering guard. As a faster rate of growth is non-negotiable for developing nations, neighbours must stop trying to get the better of one another. 

The year 2017 witnessed the first-ever freight train from China to Britain and back pushing the frontiers of connectivity in today's world. South Asia too is working on a container train on the Dhaka-Kolkata-Delhi-Islamabad route which will be later extended to Tehran and Istanbul. Let's see if Bangladesh, India and Pakistan can pull it off. 

The writer, a Kolkata-based senior journalist , is former Deputy Editor of “Outlook.”