SP parivar war will alter political scene in UP

Afroz Alam

THE politics of Uttar Pradesh is undergoing an unprecedented excitement and flux as the Samajwadi Party (SP) continues to demonstrate an uncanny flair for dynastic dissensions. An entire week of animated activity was marked by first the expulsion and then the revocation of expulsion of Akhilesh Yadav from the Samajwadi Party. It finally culminated in his coronation as the national president of the SP in a convention whose legality is now pending before the Election Commission of India. 

Fractured party

The spectre of the Akhiklesh Yadav versus Mulayam Singh Yadav race is shallow, unprincipled and belligerent. It has the potential of leaving the party unusually fractured in the forthcoming Assembly elections in 2017. What we now see emerging is the chaotic disorientation of party leaders who are not ready to set themselves up as being the leader above politics and political partisanship. They have become "too political" to gracefully delegate power to those who can optimally deliver for the party. 

At one level, while valuing Mulayam Singh Yadav's record of being a proven political wizard and master strategist, we were taking the dynastic dissension as merely his strategic design to avoid strong anti-incumbency against the Samajwadi Party government in the state as well as to cleverly project Akhilesh Yadav as the person in command of the party. It also cultivates an image of him as Vikas Purush, determined to radically break from the past style of politicians and bad politics. The powerful articulations of Akhilesh Yadav and his forging ahead with developmental policies and initiatives was certainly neutralising  anti-incumbency and helping the party to consolidate its Muslim-Yadava vote-banks. But if Akhilesh Yadav was doing well, then why did dynastic strife become more pronounced now and that too at a moment when he was being acclaimed as the "only game" of the party in Uttar Pradesh?

At another level, however, the visible dynastic strife gelled perfectly well with the possible split of the party, with counterproductive outcomes. The rising frequency of conflict within the family, often with widespread media coverage, had shaken the robust foundation of the party laid by Mulayam Singh Yadav. The greatest loss is to Mulayam Singh Yadav. He is no longer seen to enjoy the unwavering faith of the family members, party workers and, most importantly, his social base which was unimaginable 10 years back. Indeed, the symbolism of being Netaji is at stake as he appeared more a "helpless father" and "surrendered brother".   

Outcome of spat

Be that as it may, how do we square these developments? The recent family drama has a puzzling outcome for both the party and state politics. First, there will be organisational collapse as the party workers get highly divided at the booth level. There is an unprecedented demoralisation among the party cadres and loyalists on the current state of inflated egos of their party leaders. Second, both Mulayam Singh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav will try to prove their mettle while staking claim on the same old party. Third, the recent family tussle has the potential of neutralising the side-effects of demonetisation which may have given a shock to the BJP in the forthcoming Assembly elections due to the rising discontent among farmers and rural voters. 

The biggest impact of this recent intra-dynastic strife will be seen in the final desertion of Muslim voters from the SP to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The recent conflict comes at a time when the party was already at the risk of becoming irrelevant for Muslims due to their growing disenchantment with the party owing to the poor performance of the SP on multiple measures like providing physical security to Muslims during the recurrent communal riots, maintaining law and order and bringing the much-promised economic and financial dividends to the community. 

Shifting loyalties

The drift among Pasmanda Muslims has already been conspicuously pronounced because of their realisation that the SP while representing only Ashraf  Muslims deliberately ignored their proportional strengths and subjected them to extreme suffering. A similar logic could be appropriated with regard to OBC voters, particularly the Yadavas. It is obvious that they do not appear in the mood to preserve the dynasty with recurring conflicts. This scenario is advantage BJP, as most of the OBCs and the Yadavas will finally shift their allegiance with ease in favour of the BJP. This trend we have already witnessed in the 2014 Lok Sabha election in the urban areas of Uttar Pradesh. 

The shifting allegiance of these social groupings in favour of the BJP is largely conditioned with three reasons. First, in the absence of political viability of SP, they are bound to go with the BJP as it is the only party which is appealing directly to their interests. Second, the BJP has carefully cultivated its presence amongst the overarching categories of voters due to its unidirectional investment in arousing hyper-nationalist passion. Third, the strategy of the BJP to enter into an alliance at interest groups level of different low-caste categories will pay high dividends to the party in attracting those who are de-aligning from SP.  The possible shift of both Muslims and Yadavas is due to the failings of the Samajwadi Party. 

The writer is Head, Department of Political Science, Maulana Azad National Urdu  University, Hyderabad.