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Striking a balance

SEVEN weeks after President Donald Trump announced the Afghanistan and South Asia policy, his administration is still working on fleshing out its contours to enable its operationalisation and effective implementation.

Striking a balance

Long haul: The United States is in its 17th year of war, with no early end in sight.



Vivek Katju

SEVEN weeks after President Donald Trump announced the Afghanistan and South Asia policy, his administration is still working on fleshing out its contours to enable its operationalisation and effective implementation. In extensive joint interactions with the US Congress’ armed forces committees last week, defence secretary James Mattis and Gen Joseph Dunford, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, clarified to many sceptical members the policy’s objectives — regionalise, realign, reinforce, reconcile and sustain — and the means to be adopted to achieve them. What they said reveal US dilemmas, especially regarding Pakistan and the role expected of India in Afghanistan. The difficulties that the Trump administration is facing in evolving a consensus among its institutions concerned  can also be inferred from the interaction.

 Mattis told the House committee, “...in the US government the treasury secretary, the Secretary of State, the intelligence community and the defence department (will) lay out what we need Pakistan to do and then we are going to use the whole of the government institutional effort to align basically the benefits and the penalties if those things are not done”. As Trump had taken seven months to work out this crucial policy relating to America’s longest war — which has entered it 17th year with no early end in sight — it is passing strange that institutional coordination was not completed prior to Trump’s announcement. Leaving that aside, it is noteworthy that the US seeks to enlist all the 39 countries in the NATO campaign in Afghanistan to also pressure Pakistan to do the right thing in Afghanistan. This will not be easy.

Clearly, Trump gave primacy to the views of the defence department in his Afghanistan and South Asia policy. US generals have plainly told Trump that unless Pakistan shuts down the Taliban havens on its soil and gives up supporting them, the military tide cannot be decisively turned against the terrorist group. Unless that happens, the Taliban will have no incentive, as it has had none over a decade and a half, to look towards the path of negotiation and reconciliation with the Afghan government. While the logic of this view is undeniable, the difficulty lies in finding the way to realise it is here that there are differences within the US administration. While US generals may want harsh action against a recalcitrant Pakistan, the State Department is dragging its feet. Part of this was evident during the just-concluded visit of Pakistan foreign minister Khawaja Asif to Washington. He described his meeting with his US counterpart, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, as “excellent” while that with national security adviser Gen HR McMaster only as “not bad”. The latter would have no doubt read out the riot act to the generally abrasive Pakistan minister.

On his part, Asif took an aggressive approach in Washington, telling his hosts that they had “lost” the Afghan war and to stop using his country as a “whipping boy”. This was in keeping with Pakistan’s initial defiant and angry posture to Trump’s dire warnings and demands. However, Pakistan is simultaneously taking a more sober and pragmatic approach too and as its part, Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa visited Kabul last week to seek to assure President Ashraf Ghani and his colleagues of his country’s cooperation with Afghanistan in the struggle against terrorism. It is early days, but he seems to have made some headway in Kabul, for Mattis informed the House committee, “Based on a visit three days ago of the chief of the army staff of Pakistan to Kabul, we actually have for the first time a sense of some optimism out of the Afghan government”. Some veterans of the Afghan security establishment have cautioned President Ghani in putting his trust in Bajwa’s words. Having been badly bitten earlier by the Pakistan army how will Ghani react? This will have to be carefully followed by India for it will impact its interests. And it should not be overlooked that while India’s stock is high in Kabul, Ghani can be mercurial in his thinking and articulation.

In his congressional testimony, Mattis referred warmly to his Delhi visit last month. He noted the growing strategic convergence between the US and India and was positive about India’s efforts in Afghanistan. In this sense, his sentiments were largely like those expressed by the Indian strategic community on India-US convergence on both Afghanistan and the wider Asian region. It is, however, essential to constantly examine the nature, extent and quality of this convergence even while welcoming it. 

Counter-terrorism cooperation is an obvious area of strategic convergence. It is noteworthy that the US after years of reluctance to call out Pakistan is now doing so. Its emphasis on Pakistan acting against all foreign oriented groups, including those that are operating in India, is good. It is also good that General Dunford had no hesitation in stating that the ISI has links with terrorist groups. With all this, it would be short-sighted on India’s part not to expect that US’ primary focus is on Pakistan’s connections with the Taliban. Its main objective is to defend the US against the repetition of another attack on the American mainland from Afghanistan. Against the LeT, the JeM and the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, the US will and has imposed sanctions and will cooperate with India on the intelligence front, but it is India that must act to eliminate their threat. And if in India’s so doing the US feels that its interests in Pakistan are threatened, it would not be reluctant to try to restrain India, as it has in the past.

Pakistan has maintained a high decibel in asserting that India has no political and military role in Afghanistan since Trump’s policy announcement. Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi made this point in New York last month as did Asif in Washington. The Pakistanis are fixated, overlooking the fact that it is for Afghanistan and India to bilaterally decide this issue. In this context,  India must always be and project that it is an independent actor in Afghanistan.

In the Asian region, and in the context of China, India must not hesitate to acknowledge and act positively,  together with the US where interests converge, whether on the OBOR or the South China Sea or in the Indian Ocean. While doing so, it must retain its strategic autonomy. This will ensure that its relations with Russia, so vital in many areas, are not overlooked even if there is a growing gap on Afghanistan. On China too, India must develop independent and full deterrence, especially in its strategic programme, even while cooperating where it is in its interest to do so.

The writer is a former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs

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