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Surgical strikes & after

It is not as if it is all over bar the cheering.

Surgical strikes & after

Pakistan is in denial mode because it cannot own nurturing terrorists on its soil. Pakistan does not want to be seen harbouring anti-India terrorists. The strong message delivered to Pakistan will definitely have a ripple effect. PTI



Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain

It is not as if it is all over bar the cheering. In fact the successful surgical strikes across the LoC by the Indian Army is an event which may be considered the trigger for a new phase of confrontation between India and Pakistan, possibly characterised by  wholly new strategies which will be tested over time and refined. However, for now we first need to compliment the Army and the political leadership for the bold decisions, apt information handling, slick execution and effective post-event management.

As one writes, the doubts about the veracity of the Army's claims have started gathering weight. Specific questions are being asked and Pakistan's experienced Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) is sparing no efforts in projecting that it is all a hoax. ISPR has good reasons to do so. The Pakistan Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif retires in six weeks and the strong man cannot be seen to go in disgrace. This may well be a trigger for Raheel to extend himself in office or do something spectacular before he bows out, if he does decide to go. Whatever ISPR is doing is to give the Pakistan leadership time to contemplate and see through the maze of complexity. 

There is no reason for us in India to disbelieve our Army. Those who know the LoC well will confirm that undeclared trans-LoC operations have continued since many years, with or without sanction of the Government of India. This time it was necessary for the Government to be transparent in its sanction to the Army as the messaging was not military alone but politico-strategic. That can't be without a holistic government involvement because the escalation is likely to be much higher than when a deniable surgical strike is launched for only military retribution.  Two to three kilometers ahead of the defenses in any defensive system is considered in military terms as the area of influence. Tactical commanders are routinely armed with maximum intelligence on topography and layout of the adversary's defences as also the information about the population within the area of influence. 

The conduct of a raid is part of military teaching but when the degree of success has to be fool proof reliance is placed on Special Forces (SFs), with total support of the local troops through whom the launch is executed. September each year is also about enhanced attempts at infiltration which involves concentration of a larger quantum of terrorists at terror launch pads. There is a regular flow of intelligence on this. The possibility of the US providing India useful information gained by satellite surveillance is also there. The credibility of the Indian Army's claims will be finally cemented if there is a credible Pakistani response. Even without that, India's act of retribution for Uri will remain well recognised.

The muted international response is not because of credibility of claims. It is just that it is a new domain to transparently see robust Indian action. The world is not in a hurry and will take time to understand the future dynamics of possible escalation in a zone which it is fully aware has nuclear weapons with both sides.

While all are advising the Indian leadership on the possibility of a Pakistani response it is being taken for granted that such an action will be launched; a quid pro quo. From experience one can recount that the most likely action will be by a Border Action Team which is a mix of regulars and well-trained terrorists. A single action will not meet the requirement of this response where the benchmark has been set much higher. Will the deep state wish to keep it deniable or transparent; the latter more likely following the loop of escalation. Action against the Indian Army posts on the LoC itself is always an option for the BATs but the casualties they will suffer in a state of high alert will be high. 

However, building overwhelming strength to smother a smaller LoC post is always a feasibility and many such posts exist without much mutual support. To avoid casualties on themselves BATs are more likely to target patrols and logistics parties by day. Predictability about these is difficult and chances of the adversary gaining surprise are extremely high. If such a set of actions is launched as response we may well witness a phase where the cross-border exchange of small arms, mortars and artillery fire may be replaced by more frequent trans-LoC raids. The chances of escalation from such situations are much higher. That confirms the belief that we can ill afford to go slow in the paradigm of diplomacy just because one element of the military option has been played. In fact, the need for even more robust diplomacy is now felt and the same must not be restricted to New Delhi itself. This is the time to undertake a campaign with high-profile emissaries reaching out to important capitals of the world to in bring to bear India's influence in their thinking and isolate Pakistan.

As we wait and watch the unfolding of events over the next few days and both sides go into huddles on the next response the one area which is finding itself the news focus is the Kashmir hinterland. Kashmiri leaders have expressed their reservations about the actions by the Army because an escalation harms the border population and takes the focus away from Kashmir's other myriad other problems. For the current, as the durbar prepares to move to Jammu the LoC and the border are taking the attention away from the stone throwers and the curfew. The Army, to its credit, is concentrating on both fronts very deftly,   as its operations for moral domination in South Kashmir progress, the sanctity of the LoC is being ensured and now retribution becomes a new paradigm.

The writer, a former General Officer Commanding of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, is a Fellow with the Delhi Policy Group.

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