The after-effects of Karnataka

Arati R Jerath

The message from Bengaluru reverberated in the results for four Lok Sabha and 11 Assembly seats as the BJP wilted in front of a combined Opposition onslaught to suffer costly losses in its bastions. Although these were byelections, with the exception of one Assembly seat in Karnataka where polling had been deferred, they are crucial markers for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls which will see a high index of Opposition unity challenging the BJP in key states.

One such state is UP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his chief strategist BJP president Amit Shah should be deeply worried by the united Opposition’s thumping victories in the Kairana Lok Sabha constituency and the Noorpur Assembly seat. Coming as they do within weeks of similar triumphs by a combined opposition in UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s Gorakhpur and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya’s Phulpur parliamentary constituencies, a distinct pattern is emerging. Arithmetic is heavily weighted in favour of an SP-BSP-RLD-Congress alliance. The BJP is severely handicapped by being in majestic isolation, however grand it may sound.

It is to the Opposition’s credit that they fought Kairana creatively and with a pragmatic spirit of give and take. The decision to let the RLD fight the seat with a Muslim candidate was a stroke of genius. As RLD chief Ajit Singh and son Jayant Chaudhry went door-to-door with folded hands and an emotional appeal to Jat pride and identity, they seem to have managed to heal, at least partially, the wounds of the 2012 communal riots in neighbouring Muzzaffarnagar and in the process, revived late family patriarch Charan Singh’s winning Jat-Muslim-Dalit alliance. 

The Opposition’s campaign took the BJP by surprise. The party that boasts of the most formidable winning election machine failed to think up a counter-strategy to prevent the coming together of a formidable arithmetic of castes. The Kairana result proves that the communal card does not work every time. As we have seen in the past, Mandal usually trumps Kamandal, except in the context of perceived minority appeasement. This is no longer a top-of-the-mind issue with the BJP in power both at the Centre and in the state. Bread and butter issues and caste identities have come to the fore now.

Since UP gave Modi and the BJP 73 seats in 2014, they will have to do some serious introspection about their three successive Lok Sabha bypoll defeats in the state. They have not only spooked sworn enemies Mayawati and the Yadav clan to bury the hatchet and weld an alliance, but also seem to have scared off their voters too, particularly Mayawati’s Dalits. Police encounters in Yogi Adityanath’s UP are increasingly targeting Yadavs and Dalits and the Chief Minister’s Thakur caste bretheren has let loose a reign of terror among lower castes, particularly Dalits. The most recent Thakur-Dalit clash was over a Dalit bridegroom’s baraat which was not allowed to pass through a Thakur-dominated village in Kasganj in western UP.

Significantly, although Jats voted in large numbers for the BJP, both in the 2014 general election and in the 2017 Assembly election, Ajit Singh seems to have tapped into a growing feeling of resentment over their marginalisation in Yogi’s Thakur-dominated administration. Sugarcane prices and loans are an issue with this essentially agrarian community. But more than finances, Jats seem to be grappling with the realisation that their political space is shrinking every day, not just in UP, but across Haryana and Rajasthan as well. If they thought as Hindus first in 2014 and 2017, today, they appear to be thinking as Jats and as they showed in Kairana, they are willing to forget old wounds to join forces with Muslims and Dalits to teach the BJP and Yogi Adityanath a lesson.

While the Opposition’s victory in Kairana and Noorpur are the two big stories from the bypolls, the JMM’s success in snatching away two BJP-held seats in BJP-ruled Jharkhand contains another powerful message of Opposition unity. The JMM fought in alliance with Babu Lal Marandi’s JVM and the Congress to defeat the BJP. The victories have paved the way for a similar pact for the Lok Sabha poll, which means more bad news for the BJP.

Similarly, a combined Congress-NCP opposition managed to snatch back Gondiya in Maharashtra from the BJP but in Palghar, where the opposition to the BJP was fragmented, the saffron party won. 

The BJP has always known that it must face a divided opposition for a comprehensive win. The history of elections over the past three decades reinforces this. It is seriously handicapped in a one-on-one fight, except when battling the Congress which is increasingly showing itself to be a decaying force.

Having tasted blood in the bypolls, the Opposition is likely to step up the momentum for a united front to take on Modi in 2019. The BJP hopes to counter arithmetic with chemistry in a ‘Modi versus all’ battle.

There is, no doubt, that Modi still has tremendous personal appeal among common folk, although the ripples from demonetisation and hasty GST implementation have yet to subside. Also, Modi does galvanise the BJP and RSS cadre with his thundering oratory and emotion-charged rallies.

However, every reaction produces a counter-reaction. If Modi charges up his cadre, he also tends to polarise his opponents as strongly. This was evident in Kairana. Although Modi strictly did not campaign in the constituency, he did do a roadshow which culminated in a massive rally in Baghpat, 5 km from Kairana. It was obvious from his speech that he was speaking to voters in Kairana as he talked of sugarcane prices and reservations within reservations (a clear sop to Jats). While he probably managed to energise his core constituency, he also ended up consolidating the other side, which, this time, had a clear united opposition candidate to vote for.  

There is always the danger of over-reading bypoll results. But with 2019 looming large on the horizon, this round of bypolls, coming so soon after the show of Opposition unity in Bengaluru at Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in ceremony, will have to be taken seriously by both the BJP and the Opposition.

The contest is wide open. The fight has begun. May the best side win.