The battle of the South

KV Prasad

People of Karnataka will today vote to elect a new government, but the focus of the nation will be riveted on the outcome, three days from now. Generally, elections to state Assemblies evoke limited interest. For people in the North, a faraway Assembly election ignites far lesser interest, but for those immersed in politics who follow every election.

This Karnataka election is different on many counts. Even though the epicentre is located in deep South, its effect is being experienced across the country; the ruling Congress in Karnataka is facing its stiffest challenge from the BJP, which is out to recapture power in the only citadel it has ever held across the Vindhyas. Stakes are very high for the Congress and the BJP, both of whom cannot afford to be vanquished; and irrespective of who triumphs, the verdict would result in redrawing the contours of political alignments in the country ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Almost the entire country was drawn into the Karnataka poll vortex and the reason is not far to seek. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP, along with its Union Ministers and Chief Ministers, embarked upon a high-octane campaign, lending their voice where it mattered. The party-government synergy in the campaign, orchestrated by the shrewd tactician Amit Shah, the BJP president, literally forced the Congress to struggle and come up with matching resources. So much so, Sonia Gandhi who decided to step back from public gaze after the elevation of Rahul Gandhi as Congress chief came out of hibernation to take the plunge.

The interesting feature of this election is that the Congress under its CM Siddaramaiah remained a formidable combatant, attempting to buck the incumbency factor with a clever mix of politics and tactics. In the process, he silently pitched himself as a gladiator in the electoral duel against PM Modi. The CM from Kurba (shepherd) community relegated the BJP’s chief ministerial face BS Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, to the background and the Congress launched a shrill drive, reminding the voters of the former CM’s peccadilloes for corrupt practices.

Karnataka is the only big state in the South that the Congress has under its belt. By halting the BJP juggernaut set into motion by the Modi-Shah combine, the party will deny them a huge psychological advantage of having moved yet another step closer to their avowed ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ promise. The anticipated result found echo when PM Modi mockingly predicted that the Congress will be emasculated into a Punjab-Puducherry party.

For the BJP regaining Karnataka is crucial. The state was once thought of by the party as the gateway to the South, but it slipped out of its hand as it grappled internal dissensions. Wresting power from the Congress should be a big boost for it ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The four states in the South contribute a little less than a quarter of the seats in the Lok Sabha that can offset anticipated losses in the cow-belt states, particularly UP and Bihar.

A loss for either side will have serious political consequences. For the Congress, the forces within would start regrouping to test the authority of Rahul Gandhi to lead the charge in the Lok Sabha poll. It will also mean the new leader will go in with a handicap when it comes to working out alliances with other parties willing to do business with the Grand Old Party. The least the Congress can hope for is an honourable verdict of being the single largest party. The pole position can be easily construed as a decent achievement, akin to having lost the battle but still in the reckoning.

The current leadership of the BJP does not enter the battleground to lose. It unleashes its full bag of tricks and persuasion to make its political rivals bite the dust. For the BJP, the loss or the inability to form the next government in Karnataka will be a severe setback as it prepares to retain power at the Centre, the first for any BJP government after a full tenure. The latent restiveness within the party and its allies, and perceived calm on the surface would seek an outlet.

There is a distinct possibility that irrespective of the outcome, the BJP leadership would frontload the general election to go along with the next set of Assembly polls in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, where the party is in saddle for the past 15 years, besides Rajasthan. A win will allow the party to quickly cash in on the high acceptability PM Modi has as the only leader whose pan-India popularity remains, notwithstanding a few notches down as compared to the high of 2014. On the flipside, the inability to form a government in Karnataka can be worked around to advance the poll schedule to cut losses that may accrue between now and the general election next summer.

Unlike 2014, the Modi sarkar will have to go to the people reeling out the list of firsts during its tenure and come out with grand plans to complete the unfinished agenda. The report card, so to say, will have to include signature programmes like Swachh Bharat, Startup India, Stand-up India, Khelo India, Skill India, cleaner fuels and housing for the deprived sections, creation of employment opportunities and other ambitious schemes.

For the Opposition, the field is wide open. Individually and collectively, leaders and the parties will have the option to choose issues to attack the government with searching questions and direct fire on tasks that remain unfinished in terms of delivery and altered course in terms of polity and discourse.

Stirrings in both the ruling coalition and the opposition camps began months before the Karnataka polls and will acquire a greater momentum after May 15. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance of May 2014 is already undergoing a change with the exit of the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh. The Shiv Sena is threatening to snap its decades-old ties in Maharashtra while the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab remains in a state of sulk. The BJP-PDP coalition in Jammu and Kashmir is too under strain while smaller parties in Bihar and elsewhere are sending mixed signals.

Yet, the BJP appears stronger and moving ahead to consolidate its grip as a pan-India party on its own steam and takes huge comfort from the less-than-enthusiastic response the Congress and Rahul Gandhi are generating among the existing and erstwhile allies under the UPA banner.

Karnataka, like Punjab, is not known to be a bellwether state, and when its people speak, governments they elect are different from the ones that come to power at the Centre in elections that follow! Will it be any different this time?

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