The BJP sway — beyond Delhi

Yogendra Yadav

I HAD  my ‘Ola’ wisdom on the eve of the Delhi MC elections. We had taken a taxi on our way back from the last informal meeting on the day before polling. As he dropped us, the driver asked us if I was from a political party, as he vaguely recalled my face. It didn’t matter, I said, and asked him what he thought of the election the next day. It turned out that he was a traditional Congress voter who had for the first time shifted to the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. But he switched to Kejriwal in February 2015. And this time? He did not recall the names of local candidates in his ward but he was sure he was voting for Modi.

I asked him what he thought of the way the MCD had functioned. ‘Kuchh kaam nahin kiya’ (They didn’t do a thing). I reminded him that the BJP had been running the MCD for the last 10 years. He feigned ignorance, but this information did not seem to make a difference to him. Why not stay with jhadu, I persisted. ‘Kejriwal ne to dhokha diya’ (Kejriwal betrayed us), he dismissed. Now his hopes rest with Modiji. ‘He has given a good Chief Minister like Yogiji in Uttar Pradesh, he will ensure a good government in Delhi as well.’ I was speechless and horrified. Yet the Ola driver had taught me something about politics.

The counting of votes for the MC elections is due today. So, as of now we do not know the outcome. Yet I have little doubt that the voting pattern followed by the driver is about to be replicated all over Delhi. A massive, yet silent, shift of votes in favour of the BJP was quite evident towards the end of the campaign. I was involved in the campaign for my party, Swaraj India, and missed no opportunity to draw attention to BJP’s misdeeds in Delhi’s three municipalities. Yet, it was clear that the voters were not focusing on the performance of the MC. They were more attentive to my criticism of the AAP government in Delhi. Exit polls have merely confirmed the subjective impression of many observers that the BJP had established a huge lead on the polling day. Exit polls estimate that the BJP’s lead over its nearest rival to be a staggering 20 per cent plus. Such a lead would naturally translate into a clean sweep in terms of seats. Even if the polls have overestimated the BJP’s lead (and, I hope underestimated smaller parties like ours), we are still looking at something of an electoral wave in favour of the BJP. 

Such an outcome would be intriguing as well as tragic. Delhi’s three municipal corporations must be among the worst-run municipalities in the country. A visit to the outer and eastern peripheries of Delhi, which now house nearly half of Delhi, reveal an urban infrastructure no better than towns of UP and Bihar. Even a casual visitor to the city cannot but notice the garbage dumps, dirty water and stench all over the city. In the last one year, Delhi has been through chikungunya and dengue epidemic, air pollution that crossed all danger marks and strikes leading to garbage strewn across the streets. 

There cannot be two arguments about who is the culprit: the municipal corporations of Delhi run by the BJP for the last 10 years. In popular lexicon, these are known as the ‘Most Corrupt Departments’. The only time you notice the MCD is when its inspector arrives to demand bribe to turn a blind eye to any building activity. These municipalities are a textbook example of how urban governments ought not to be. True, they have been starved of resources by the Delhi Government, but they have done little to generate massive revenues that they could through parking, advertisements and toll tax. If the BJP looks set to come back to power in the MCD, it is nothing short of a democratic scandal.

Why are the people of Delhi voting for a non-performing ruling party? Clearly, the answer does not lie in EVM tampering. Instead of making such rash and irresponsible allegations that the BJP’s political opponents, like myself, acknowledge the fact that the BJP is winning because the people are voting for it.

Those who are voting for the BJP do not think they are rewarding the non-performing MCD. The BJP managed to detach this election from the difficult municipal issues. Instead, it distracted the voters and the media into discussing nationalism, Kashmir, cow slaughter and national security — issues that have no bearing on the MCD. It also managed to deflect popular anger against its sitting councillors by deciding not to re-nominate any of them. The AAP also contributed to this de-coupling of the elections from the real municipal issues by making it a personality contest. The AAP campaign was all about turning this election into a personal referendum for Kejriwal. Some hoardings did not carry the name of his own party. Smaller players like Swaraj India, constrained by lack of resources and media attention, tried to bring the debate to municipal issues, but with very limited success. In the end, it became a simple popularity contest between the CM and the PM.

The people of Delhi appeared to have chosen the PM over the CM. This cannot be explained by the ‘magical Modi wave’ sweeping across the country. We just need to remember that Modi wave was no less strong in 2015 when the BJP bit dust in the Delhi Assembly elections. If anything, the PM’s popularity was a shade higher at that mode, having scored an unprecedented victory in Maharashtra and Haryana, following his Lok Sabha success. Unlike now, his party did not face any local anti-incumbency either. The Congress and the AAP were the prior incumbents then. We cannot escape the difficult question: Why did the Modi wave fail to work in 2015 and appears to be working in 2017?

The difference lies in Delhi’s experience with the AAP government since February 2015. Within a few months of coming to power, the AAP lost its moral sheen. Its promise of good governance also turned hollow as the government had little to show for its track record except partial deduction in electricity bills and additional funds for school education. Instead, the government has been busy with blame games against the Central government and its representative, the LG. No doubt, some of these complaints are valid. But over-reliance on this blame game has left the people of Delhi, like my Ola driver, sick and tired. The personality cult of Kejriwal is beginning to boomerang as he loses this personal referendum. The AAP’s meteoric rise now threatens to turn into meteoric fall.

One can only hope that the party has the capacity to learn some lessons.

The MCD election has completed one phase of the BJP’s rise as the hegemon in Indian politics. If the oppositional politics does not come to terms with reality even now, it might be too late. 

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