The deep state reigns supreme in Pak

Lt-Gen Kamal Davar (retd) 

History displays an immutable propensity of repeating itself in nations, institutions and organisations when some of its lessons continue to be discarded at the altar of political expediency or unenlightened self-interest. 

Neighbouring, restive Pakistan, despite its many abortive attempts with genuine democracy, fell once again on its knees to the unholy trinity of its 'deep state'. Pakistan's deep state comprising its all-powerful Army, its intelligence agencies notably the sinister ISI and the many terror 'tanzeems' it nurtures, called the shots as Pakistan was hit and near-paralysed, for nearly a month by a radical tornado triggered by a newly formed fundamentalist outfit, the Tehreek Labaik Ya Rasool Allah led by a Muslim cleric, Khadim Husain Rizvi, belonging to the Barelvi sect of Islam. That an elected government had to plead to its Army to restore law and order in the nation displayed for the 'umpteenth' time where power essentially rests in Pakistan and the unaccountability of the Pakistan army to its elected government. 

Provoked by a seemingly innocuous alteration in wording of the swearing-in for a Pakistani legislator, the radicals -- whose number is alarmingly rising in Pakistan -- termed the amendment as blasphemous and went into an overdrive, as they blockaded the Islamabad highway to Murree. Though there were hardly 3,000 protesters, they successfully choked road links around Islamabad and soon the protests spread to many parts of Pakistan. 'Dharnas', on the call of Rizvi were staged at Lahore, Peshawar, Faislabad, Sargodha and other towns and houses of some ministers torched. Over a dozen protesters were shot dead and around 255 injured as a result of the security forces firing at the agitators.

The beleaguered PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi asked Pakistan Army chief, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, to control the deteriorating situation. It can happen only in Pakistan that an army chief can refuse a legitimate order from his duly elected prime minister and get away scot-free! The wily general refused to take on the protesters but assured his PM that the army will ensure the security of governmental buildings and other sensitive installations. 

Importantly, the Pakistan Army played an important mediatory role in defusing the situation by persuading the Pakistan government to make the hapless Law Minister Zahid Hamid resign from his post as demanded by the extremist protesters. That the army's sympathies rested with the radical elements on the streets tellingly revealed the contours of Pakistani politics likely to shape up soon. 

The timing of these protests, the release of the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist strike mastermind Hafiz Saeed, the waning of mainstream political parties and rise of radical forces portends an ugly future for Pakistan's polity. Compounding the worsening milieu are efforts by former President General Pervez Musharraf to re-enter the political environment. His giving a clean chit and expressing his admiration for the terrorist kingpin Hafiz Saeed and the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jamaat-ul-Dawa, especially in their nefarious efforts in J&K, must be factored in by India's security establishment. Is Hafiz Saeed's efforts to "politically mainstream" his newly established Mili Muslim League, the emergence of other radical political outfits are a mere coincidence or has the Pakistani Army's subtle nod to make Pakistan into a totally militarised Islamic state? The emerging scenario, with the general elections slated in 2018 thus is fraught with ominous tidings with regards to the deepening of collusive ties between the army and the extremist forces in Pakistan.

India, as it continues with its established policies of non-interference in the internal politics of a neighbouring country, yet cannot remain indifferent to the happenings in Pakistan. The emerging Pakistan army and radical elements nexus is fraught with danger for India, even Afghanistan and the region. China, with its economic investments in Pakistan, will back Pakistan's deep state for its strategic interests. Even the US, at least till its commitments in Afghanistan, will, admonish Pakistan to lay off terrorism in its neighbourhood but continue to reward it financially and militarily. India will have to chart its own path to ensure its security with enhanced preparedness while it gets Russia, Afghanistan and Iran to synergise their efforts to keep a rogue, nuclear-armed Pakistan in check. Thouogh radicalism among the common folk in Pakistan is on the ascendant, there still exists a sane civil society and some of its diaspora which India needs to address and encourage with a multi-faceted approach. Being the largest nation in South Asia, India's responsibilities, naturally, go beyond its borders.