The J&K coalition is over, almost

A S Dulat

“Thus conscience does make cowards of us all.

And thus the native hue of resolution is sicklied o’er with the pale cast of thought…..”

(Shakespeare – Hamlet)

To be or not to be has been the question uppermost not only in Mehbooba’s mind since Mufti Sahab passed away three weeks ago, but also the subject of larger debate in political circles in Kashmir.

While Kashmir expected a new star on the political horizon, the spirits that have haunted Mehbooba, most of all Kashmir’s ‘nowhereness’ have created serious doubts in her mind. Whichever way, it was not going to be an easy call, once it was not taken at once. With time, doubts and theories of conspiracy which abound in Kashmir only grow.

So Kashmir once again finds itself in a crisis or as the Kashmiris like to call it at ‘the crossroads’. Mehbooba’s meeting with party men in Srinagar on January 31 produced nothing new. Nor the meeting with party legislators on Monday (Feb.1) produced any movement forward. Many in the media, both in Srinagar and Delhi fed information by party legislators, expected announcement of government formation. But Mehbooba demonstrated that she was made of sterner stuff: she would not form the government just for the sake of power. So much for the “Agenda of Alliance” being Allah’s farmaan because as party leaders touted Mufti Sahab had remained totally committed to it. Instead Mehbooba was honest to acknowledge that her father’s decision to ally with the BJP was “unpopular” and the party needed to reassess the Centre’s commitment to Kashmir. Notwithstanding her love and attachment to her beloved father Mehbooba would not compromise for anyone or anything. She had virtually slammed the door on Delhi.

Given her state of mind, calling a party meeting was a mere formality. Because what party workers on the ground told her was all over the street in Srinagar: Kashmiris held Mufti Sahab responsible for bringing ‘Saffron’ to Kashmir. This is a part of his legacy Kashmir is not likely to forget and forgive in a hurry. But Mufti Sahab deserved better, particularly from Delhi.

The BJP, after waiting patiently for three weeks reacted on predictable lines. It was totally “unimpressed” with what they believe to be Mehbooba’s tantrums and turnaround. Delhi never has been over-impressed with Kashmir and Kashmiris. What Kashmiri leaders with their sense of self-importance often forget is that for Delhi, Kashmir like any other state is only a blip on the radar to be dealt with when required – wasn’t it the Pope (Mirwaiz) who said Delhi only remembers Kashmiris when needed. The Prime Minister has many, many more pressing problems than to deal with Mehbooba. The question that not only Delhi but also the National Conference is posing is that why is the PDP now seeking assurances from Delhi after being together with the BJP for ten months.

All this is in the public domain and often talked about in Srinagar. What is not so publically known but still mentioned in whispers among Kashmiris when they gather over ‘trambies’ for dinner is how Mufti was tormented and how much he suffered, particularly towards the end, when people say he was in great pain. For the public he had nothing to say except crave peace between India and Pakistan which like every Kashmiri leader knew was paramount for the state. Kashmiris could still imagine him calling out from his grave what was his conviction and what he said very often: “goli nahi boli”. No one knows better than Mehbooba how much Mufti Sahab suffered and what he may have said to her before he passed away. And also what Dr. Farooq Abdullah may have said to Mehbooba when he met to condole with her quietly after the crowds had melted away. And who knows what messages or signals Mehbooba may have received from her friends among separatists. Anything is possible in Kashmir.

Looking to the future in which both the coalition partners, the PDP and the BJP have lost out in the respective core constituency, being together, it is a no brainer that the BJP stands to lose more with the collapse of the coalition. Its ambition of being in power in J&K will be halted as will its spread in Kashmir. At the same time, with North and South pole, as Mufti Sahab described the Kashmir and Jammu coalition, drifting apart and the ‘unholy alliance’ as the Kashmiris  perceived it giving way, the fence sitters addicted to power in the last ten months may finally need to go one way or another. Willy-nilly, Delhi will be perceived as shutting the door even on the mainstream, and polarisations between Kashmir and Jammu would grow.

Whether the PDP, created and nurtured by Mufti will hold after losing power is another question. To hazard a guess, never easy in Kashmir, Mehbooba should gain in popularity for sacrificing power for what she perceives as the larger good of Kashmir which to her credit, has always remain in her mind. In the short term she should go up in public estimation.

So far Mehbooba was accepted as the undisputed leader of the PDP because she was the natural heir to chief minstership and assured the party of the smoothest transfer of power after Mufti Sahab’s demise. It is well known that no PDP legislator wanted either to sit in the opposition or have fresh elections. Now with the PDP out of power who knows, who will, on who’s prompting, challenge whom?

Holding the party together at this point, rebuilding it and reinventing its image will be a stupendous task. If she comes through this test by fire with no quarter from either Delhi or the opposition, save her own people, the PDP could emerge as a big enough force to challenge the National Conference – that’s how leaders are born.

Meanwhile, the National Conference often underestimated in Delhi, still remains in Kashmiri perception the nearest reasonable representative of Kashmir, Kashmiris and Kashmiryat. Knowing that it is in the driver’s seat, the National Conference will soon be clamouring for fresh elections. But that, as always, will be Delhis call.

The fog of uncertainty which enveloped Kashmir in the last three weeks is gradually beginning to lift. As they say in Kashmir, after the fog there should be snow and then bright sunshine. The stage is set for another prolonged spell of Governor’s rule, not the best option in J&K but the only apparent one at the moment.

(The writer is a former chief of RAW and the author of Kashmir:  The Vajpayee Years)