The Saudi prince boldly moves

S Nihal Singh

EVENTS in Saudi Arabia that have shaken up the kingdom as never before since 1979 are changing the face of the country. How far these changes will succeed remains to be seen, with the bold new young Crown Prince, Mr Mohammed bin Salman, launching an avalanche of initiatives.

The Crown Prince, who was leapfrogged to succeed his ailing father, King Salman, is a man in a hurry. He launched a war against Houthi rebels in Yemen, which is stalemated. He acted against the state of Qatar to isolate it ostensibly for supporting terrorists but in reality for not deferring to Saudi foreign policy and running a professional popular TV channel Al Jazeera, breaking the rule of the traditional dull state-run channels in the region. And he tried to doctor the resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister, Mr Saad Hariri, in an attack on the Iranian proxy in the coalition, Hezbollah.

It is on the domestic front, however, that Prince Mohammed, known as MBS, is making the biggest waves. Women will be allowed to drive cars from June next year, the religious police has been muzzled and citizens will be increasingly freed from segregated living. To cap these dramatic changes, some 200 princes, former ministers and other millionaires were imprisoned in a luxurious hotel in Riyadh on corruption charges.

Apparently, the arrests were made after meticulous investigation into their business transactions and the money they had milked from the state through corrupt practice. With thousands of princes living in the kingdom, corruption has been a way of life. Many of the princes were freed after they paid up what they had stolen in a warning that MBS was serious about fighting corruption in an era in which low oil prices meant that the kingdom was running on deficit budgets.

These events took place against the backdrop of a high-level investors’ conference at which MBS told them of his grand plan to build a brand new carbon-free city of the future serviced by robots, in addition to selling minority shares in the state oil company. Understandably, investors looked askance at the new moves the Prince was making.

 It is well understood that the storming of the holiest of holies in Saudi Arabia in 1979 led to a compact between the rulers and the Muslim clergy on propagating an extreme form of Wahabbism consisting of segregating the sexes, covering up women in shrouds and spreading the cult of violence around the world. MBS now explains that his country is going back to moderate Islam that existed, with amusements and songs not banned and respect for other religions. It is in this context that yoga has now been classed as a sport and given legitimacy.

As the world looks in wonder at MBS’s ambitious agenda, how far can the young prince succeed? His military ventures have been far from successful and trying to isolate gas-rich Qatar is a bad idea. But in domestic affairs, MBS has the support of his country’s preponderant overwhelmingly young population and, of course, of women. In realistic terms, it was impossible for Saudi Arabia to live in the remote past, as it has been doing for decades.

On the regional political front Riyadh is increasingly positing itself as the leader of the Sunnis fighting Shia Iran’s assertion of its regional interests. Thanks primarily to the US and Western actions and in Syria’s case Russian intervention, these states have fallen into Iran’s lap. The Lebanese Hezbollah movement has helped in the fighting.

  Saudi Arabia has the unfailing support of the UAE in its military and political moves although Kuwait has kept its distance and Sultan Qaboos of Oman is smoking its pipe of peace. Indeed, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed, works closely with MBS.

What consequences will Crown Prince Mohammed have on his country, the region and the wider world? First, MBS must rein in his brashness and learn the first lesson in starting military operations. It is easier to start wars but more difficult to end them successfully. The isolation of Qatar is harmful to Gulf and Arab relations and he must find a way to extract himself and his friends from a situation of his own making. Third, there is no profit in continuing the Yemen war in which the main sufferers are the people of Yemen, many of them ill and starving to death.

But MBS is doing extraordinary things in changing the mores of a society that was living in a stagnant past. It is good to maintain traditions, but not at the  cost of half the country’s citizens. In any case, the Crown Prince’s aides say that in the pre-1979 past, women went about bare-headed and enjoyed such innocent pleasures as going to the theatre or watching a film in a cinema hall. The rules on female attendance at sporting events in stadia have already been relaxed.

With belt-tightening a necessity in days of low oil prices, there is also the problem of employing young men. Most sought after were sinecure government jobs. But belt-tightening makes these jobs scarce and the risk of being attracted to radical ideas is greater for idle youth. This is not to count the thousands of princes who live on handsome state pensions.

Many of MBS’s moves are for the long haul but the fact that he has the panache and authority to make them is a unique development. There are many disbelievers in the region and outside it. The Crown Prince’s original plan has already been trimmed and there will no doubt be hurdles as he moves forward. A test will be investors’ summing up of a situation in which stability and predictability are their guidelines.

In a world of nation-states that is changing fast with extremist ideologies of the Left or Right holding sway and unpredictable leaders being thrown up, Saudi Arabia is unique in promising to abandon its anachronistic ways to enter the 21st century. Here is wishing it success.