Two elections, many lessons

KC Singh

In the past fortnight, two elections — in Karnataka and Malaysia — have thrown up interesting lessons for democracy in Asia. In the former, the erstwhile Prime Minister, 85-year-old HD Deve Gowda, and 92-year-old creator of Malaysian economic miracle, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who had retired in 2003, stirred the political pot. 

Karnataka threw up a fragmented mandate where, besides only two Independents, the elected members of the legislature were split between the BJP (104), Congress (78) and JD (S) (37). The BJP being eight short of the majority could only rule by encouraging defections from the other two parties. To stymie that, the Congress announced unconditional support to the JD (S), prompting HD Kumaraswamy, son of Deve Gowda, to immediately seek an appointment from the Governor, as the post-poll alliance provided him a majority. 

The BJP made its own claim based on presumptive majority. The Governor, an old RSS and BJP functionary, after cursory consultation with unknown legal experts, invited and swore in BJP leader Yeddyurappa as Chief Minister, giving him two weeks to prove majority in a floor test. As the Congress and JD (S) sequestered their elected members, an unsavoury cycle of allegations and denials commenced. This was ended by the Supreme Court after a post-midnight hearing and follow-up arguments a day later. The court advanced the floor test to the following day and ordered it to be telecast live on all television channels. 

Yeddyurappa resigned before the floor test. Only the court won laurels as constitutionality prevailed. Yet to be pronounced is the court’s ruling on how a Governor should conduct himself when the verdict is fractured. In the past four years of BJP’s Central rule, its governments have been sworn in following different, convenient principles. In Goa, the BJP lost badly; its Chief Minister and sundry ministers were defeated, and yet, a BJP government was formed by a post-poll arrangement, despite the Congress being the largest party. A similar ploy was employed in a few other states. In Karnataka on the contrary, the Governor rested his decision on inviting the single-largest party, even though it was clear that the BJP could muster a majority only by illegally inducing defections from rival parties. 

As Kumaraswamy is sworn in as Chief Minister, he has invited a broad range of opposition leaders. An alliance between the SP and the BSP in Uttar Pradesh earlier, and now this, indicates that the Opposition realises that unity is a condition precedent to seriously challenge the BJP in forthcoming elections, including to the Lok Sabha in less than a year. A former BJP finance and external affairs minister in the Vajpayee cabinet, Yashwant Sinha, has been arguing this since he floated the National Forum (Rashtra Manch) on January 30, along with members — in individual capacities — of the Congress, Samajwadi Party, Rashtra Janata Dal, Trinamool Congress, Rashtra Lok Dal, etc. 

This is not a political party, nor likely to be one, but a movement for fighting forces undermining democracy in India. Both, Yashwant Sinha and veteran actor and BJP MP from Patna, Shatrughan Sinha, were in Chandigarh this week to propagate this message. At Anandpur Sahib the two preeminent sons of Bihar paid obeisance, having brought a message of goodwill from the place of birth of the last Guru (Patna) to the place where he created the Khalsa.

The BJP’s sour-grapes syndrome compels it to defend its unsuccessful power-grab in Karnataka, arguing that the mandate was against the Congress, or that coalitions are inherently unstable, or that MLAs of the other two parties are being forcibly restrained. Fearing Opposition convergence, similar arguments are advanced against a coalition government after the next Lok Sabha election, highlighting the past unhappy experience with such governments at the Centre. 

This tirade goes against historical and the current global experience. Yashwant Sinha told the Chandigarh media that the 1977 government may not have lasted, but it ensured that democracy returned to India after the Emergency, which may not have been so had the Congress returned to power. Currently, because of proportional representation in many European nations, of the 27 nations, 20 have coalition governments, including combination of parties of the right and the left joining hands to keep extremists out of power. Germany has had a coalition of left-of-centre Social Democrats and right-wing Christian Democrats off and on since 1966. Chancellor Merkel, in power since 2005, accepted such a combination in her first, third and current government. Thus, economic success does not require autocratic one-party rule. So, parties with disparate ideologies and having campaigned against each other joining hands after a fractured electoral verdict is merely governance by post-poll consensus. The first BJP Prime Minister Vajpayee did just that. PM Narendra Modi may well have abjured unwise steps like demonetisation and hurried GST had he been in a vulnerable coalition. 

That brings the subject to Malaysia. In BJP, when Yashwant Sinha began his public disagreement with his own party, the ailing Finance Minister Arun Jaitley quipped that it was an 80-year-old seeking a job. In Malaysia, it is someone older than LK Advani, and like him the creator of the ruling party — United Malays National Organisation (UNMO) — who has led the fightback against autocratic power capture by his successor Najib Razak. Mahathir has liberated from jail the charismatic Anwar Ibrahim after a royal pardon. Anwar was once his chosen successor but was sidelined after policy differences.

The fightback in India is naturally by coalescing Opposition power, but one Malaysian lesson is interesting. Mahathir has not only harnessed the disaffection of supporters of the ruling party that had dominated Malaysian politics since 1946, but also middle-class ethnic Chinese and Indians. The new government proposes to emphasise due process rather than settling scores, though the outgoing PM will face corruption charges. Significantly, one of the first decisions has been to abolish the GST. Is that an indicator that even in India there may be a tsunami building over irrationally exuberant economic policies? One thing is established that even those 80-years-old or more can create political tsunamis when the public is ready for change.

The writer is a former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs