Why the Centre does not want Punjab to diversify

Pritam Singh & R. R Singh

WITH the paddy transplanting season approaching in Punjab, there will be focus again on the ecological necessity of reducing the area under rice cultivation. The past history of cultivation of rice, a water-guzzling crop, and water scarcity in Punjab make crop diversification especially salient.  

The area under rice cultivation in Punjab was only 285 thousand hectares in 1966-67 at the time of the launch of the Green Revolution strategy. India was then a food-deficit nation, dependent upon the humiliating PL-480 food aid from the US. Indira Gandhi had characterised the aim of achieving food self-sufficiency through the Green Revolution strategy a matter of "national survival". By 1970-71, this "national survival" strategy had led to area under rice cultivation in Punjab rising to 390 and by 1975-76 to 567 thousand hectares. Area under rice cultivation further increased in 1980-81, 1985-86, 1990-91, 1995-96, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 to 1178, 1714, 2024, 2161, 2611, 2642, 2831, 2818, 2845 and 2851 thousand hectares respectively. In 2014-15, this jumped to 2894 thousand hectares. 

Within a time span of 50 years (1966 to 2015), the area under rice cultivation in Punjab has increased phenomenally by over 10 times. This is one of the most startling changes in land use observed in agrarian history anywhere. This exponential increase has resulted in the ground water levels in Punjab going down drastically. As of 2011, out of the total 138 blocks in Punjab, 110 are overexploited, four are critical, two are semi-critical and only 22 are safe. Thus, 84 per cent of the blocks are either overexploited, critical or in a semi-critical category and only 16 per cent are safe. As per the Central Ground Water Board, Punjab has the highest stage of ground water development of 172 per cent  amongst all the states in India. This is a scary index of the ground water status of Punjab. The ground water development stage of 100 per cent indicates that ground water consumption is equal to ground water recharge; ground water development stage of above 100 per cent indicates that the annual ground water consumption is more than the annual ground water recharge. A very high stage of ground water development of 172 per cent indicates that the annual water consumption in Punjab is very high compared to its annual recharge. 

An additional aspect of Punjab's water vulnerability is that the ground water availability for future irrigation use for Punjab is not only lowest of all the states; it is, in fact, negative (-14.83 billion cubic metre) as per the 2011 data. If despite the grave situation of current and future water availability in Punjab, diversification away from rice has not taken place, we need to explore the reasons. One, the assured price and procurement of rice incentivises farmers to stick to rice cultivation. Reasons preventing diversification are lower economic returns from alternative crops and the lack of reliable and proven technology for growing such crops. These factors are derivatives of the strongest reason behind the failure of crop diversification, namely that the central government is strategically opposed to crop diversification in Punjab due to India's critical reliance on Punjab agriculture to meet the national consumption needs for rice.

According to the available data,  rice consumption in India in  2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 was approximately 90000, 94006, 95193, 96404 and 97073 thousand tonne, respectively. As per the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, the demand for rice in the years 2016-17 and 2020-21 is estimated to be 110 and 117 million tonne. respectively. The supply of rice for the year 2016-17, however, is estimated to be 98-106 million tonne, indicating that India will be just marginally able to fulfil its rice needs. 

Another study estimates the demand for rice in the years 2020 and 2030 to be 111.8 million tonne and 122.4 million tonne and the supply to be 108.1 and 122.1 million tonne, respectively. This highlights that there could be a supply gap of 3.7 and 0.3 million tonne, respectively for the years 2020 and 2030. Any central government, under such circumstances, would be opposed to the diversification of Punjab agriculture away from rice. Keeping in view India's population size and consequently the demand for rice, India always requires sufficient stock of rice. The production of rice in Punjab for the years 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 was 10837, 10542, 11374, 11267 and 11107 thousand tonne. The 2013 agriculture policy of Punjab states that the area under rice is 28 lakh hectares. It was targeted to move 16 million hectares away from rice in the coming years. However, contrary to this target, the  area under rice for the years 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15  has continuously increased to 2,845, 2851 and 2894 thousand hectares, respectively. If an area of 16 lakh hectares as proposed is moved away from rice, it will mean a decrease in production of rice to the tune of approximately 6,193 thousand tonnes per year (calculated on the basis of average rice yield of the last five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15). If Punjab diversifies away from rice; the rice stocks of India could be dangerously hit.

India could possibly build buffer stocks with cheaper rice imports but instability in the international rice market makes such import reliance a risk-prone strategy. Also, India can cover for the shortfall in buffer stocks by curtailing its rice exports. Even then the rice stocks would approach critical limits and a precarious situation may arise for India. 

The critical reliance on Punjab's rice production for India's food self-sufficiency in general and rice in particular prevents the Centre from taking any strategic decision to incentivise Punjabi farmers to move away from rice. This imperative must force the state government and other stakeholders to realise that a Punjab-based strategy to diversify away from rice has to be devised for Punjab's ecological survival. Of course, without expecting policy support from the Centre to reduce rice production in Punjab. 

Pritam Singh is Professor and R Singh a PhD student in Economics at Oxford Brookes University, UK