Month from now, youth to decide the political fate of Punjab

Ruchika M. Khanna
Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, January 4

With 53 per cent (1.04 crore) of the electorate in Punjab aged between 18 and 39, the youth are likely to decide which way the state votes on February 4, when 1,97,49,964 voters go the polls with four main political parties in the fray.

There are 93,09,274 women voters , 1,04,40,310 men, and 380 voters of the third gender registered in the 117 Assembly segments of Punjab.

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After several years, Punjab will witness a three-cornered contest – the ruling Akali-BJP alliance will be challenged not only by its traditional rival, the Congress, but also the strong emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), making it a nail-biting contest.

Though several attempts were made in the run-up to the Assembly polls to assemble a fourth front, it never materialised, leaving several splinter groups also in the fray.

This time, it will be Sukhbir Badal’s strategy vs Captain Amarinder Singh’s appeal (coupled with Prashant Kishor’s ideation and vote garnering machinations) vs Arvind Kejriwals aggression.

February 4, the day that Punjab goes to the polls, will see whether the Akali-BJP alliance, battling a 10-year anti-incumbency, can swing the voters in their favour the third time. The alliance is using the development card and also exploiting the Panthic agenda, even as the party is witnessing an all-time low credibility, especially amongst its core Panthic voters.

This is perhaps the first time Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal have tried to fight this by fielding candidates with relatively better credibility. But whether micro-management and social engineering, which are Sukhbir Badal’s forte, work for him remains to be seen.

For the BJP, it will be a litmus test to assess if it continues to hold the popularity it enjoyed among the urban Hindu voters.

The hope of Akali and state BJP leadership for a package from the NDA government at the Centre never materialised.

The past two months have seen the Akali-BJP regime make a number of appointments from amongst its leaders, mainly aimed at placating dissidents who have been denied the party tickets. As many as 300 such leaders have been adjusted in the past month. Thousands of crores have been spent to please various sections of voters.

For the two main Opposition parties – the Congress and the AAP – there is a lot more at stake. The Congress, which hopes to make a comeback in the national politics through a Punjab Assembly win, is still trying to control dissidence arising from ticket allotment.

The party’s state chief and likely chief-ministerial candidate, Capt Amarinder Singh, too has his political career at stake. In spite of getting a good response from voters, the party is yet to finalise candidates for 40 Assembly seats. For the past two months, the party has been "missing in action", with most leaders camping in Delhi, waiting for announcement of candidates.

Will the former chief minister bag the required number of seats? That will be known only when the results are declared on March 11.

On the other hand, the AAP, which continues to be popular among the young voters of the state, is looking forward to staking its claim to power in Punjab, a platform it wants to exploit to launch its national political ambitions. The party, which seemed to have a clear edge last year, has seen setbacks following the breaking away of the Chhotepur faction, and rebellion among its rank and file over the party ticket. It remains to be seen if the party can finally overcome these setbacks, and come to power.

To know the answers to all these questions, the gap of five weeks between the day of polling and counting of votes will be a test of nerves for the candidates.