A ‘cashless’ victory

A near-clean sweep of the Chandigarh municipal elections by the BJP has sent not just a sigh of relief but a wave of ecstasy through the party's rank and file. So acute had been the criticism of the NDA government from economists and opposition parties over demonetisation that it gave a real fear of a dent in the poll prospects of the ruling alliance. The results of the Gujarat civic polls on November 29 had also come as a relief to the BJP as it won 107 of the 123 municipal and district panchayat seats in 16 districts; the Congress won just 16. Maharashtra too went the BJP way, but with a sting in the tail, as it lost out to the Congress in the third phase of the civic polls that was held recently despite the win in the first two.

Whether or not this is a vote for demonetisation, it certainly establishes that the miserably implemented exercise has not angered people enough for it to dim the Modi allure, at least in regions where a following for him already exists. Why this may not be seen as a reflection of a pan-India sentiment is that all three areas from where the pro-BJP results have come were already with the party. It is very common for people to go with the ruling party in civic elections, as most benefits to fund-starved bodies have to come from the government. Chandigarh has a BJP MP.

A natural tendency now would be to extrapolate these municipal results to the forthcoming Assembly elections, especially in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. That would be a mistake. For one, there is still time, in which a lot can happen, including a deterioration of the demonetised economy. Secondly, the factors at work in the UT and the two states are entirely different. It should nonetheless be heartening for the BJP to note that the Opposition has been entirely unable to build on the opportunity provided by the government. The Modi ‘wave’, apparently, continues.