An unfortunate incident

TURKEY’S shooting down of a Russian fighter aircraft in the Turkish-Syrian border region is both unfortunate and inevitable. Unfortunate, because the incident has created overt friction among forces fighting a bigger danger, the ISIS. Inevitable, because of the conflict of interest between Russia and Turkey. It is important to recognise that Istanbul does not necessarily subscribe to the same objectives as does the rest of the NATO.  Rather, Turkey is focussed on trampling down Kurdish nationalists whereas Washington seeks rebel Kurds’ help to confront the ISIS.  The incident has predictably provoked Russian President Vladimir Putin to warn Turkey of ‘serious consequences’. Turkey and its patrons in Nato have a responsibility to exercise restraint.

The downing of the Russian Sukhoi-24 by US-supplied F-16s of the Turkish Air Force has not been without immediate economic fallouts. Oil prices rose by 2.3 per cent, Russian stocks fell, the Istanbul equity market lost 1.6 per cent and the Turkish Lira dropped 0.9 per cent against the US dollar. While these setbacks are transitory, a far greater challenge is to pool resources and perspectives against the ISIS. After the recent terror attacks in Paris, the need for such a convergence can no longer be ignored. 

The West is entitled to remain focussed on wanting to dismantle President Bashar al-Assad regime; but it also has a serious obligation to think of the consequences of a regime change without a viable alternative arrangement. For now, Washington has to work with Moscow.  For too long the Western leaders and strategic experts have worked themselves up against President Putin and what they regard as his strategic over-reach; post-Paris they find it difficult to readjust their sights and rhetoric.  The Russian leadership feels legitimately provoked against the ISIS and cannot be expected to play second-fiddle to the West’s muddled approach to the ISIS. The onus is on the West to show tactical imagination.