Jadhav’s death sentence

Kulbhushan Jadhav’s death sentence by a Pakistani military court martial has left New Delhi apoplectic — and, with good reason. For months nothing was heard of Jadhav after Pakistan aired a crudely edited video, his purported confession about running a spy ring in Balochistan. It was assumed that his fate would be a long spell in prison while the case wound its way through the courts. But the suspiciously ultra-quick ruling — pronounced in an ultra secret chamber — has compelled India to throw the book at Pakistan, threatening it with dire consequences if it went ahead with “premeditated murder”. In the murky world of espionage, his death sentence may be linked to the disappearance of a former Pakistani military official near the Indo-Nepal border where Indian intelligence agencies hold sway.

The situation should become a bit clearer after Jadhav gets to meet Indian diplomats who were suddenly given access after the death sentence. But on the strength of available indicators, Jadhav is the fall guy because of the deteriorating Indo-Pak ties: just last month the Pakistani Senate was informed that a case would be shortly registered against him. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself widened the ambit of discord by making references to Balochistan and Gilgit & Baltistan. Is it any wonder that the Pakistanis showed his arrest in Balochistan as if to validate their accusation of Indian meddling?

The stage is set for another Sarabjit-like situation: a massive public outcry coupled with fire and brimstone statements from the political class and TV anchors. India will also get the support of peaceniks in Pakistan. Back-channel talks will inevitably be held along with political, diplomatic and even military pressure. Indian diplomacy will be tested. The military court’s sentence is not the end of the road for Jadhav. He has three lifelines or appeals. India needs to summon all its diplomatic ingenuity, as it has done in the past, to get Jadhav out of the death row. But in the absence of a dialogue, consciously spurned by Modi to maintain his consciously-cultivated strongman image with a pro-Hindutva hue, makes the diplomat’s task difficult.