Left sweeps Nepal

THE unthinkable has happened in Nepal, from the vantage of South Block’s muscular diplomacy. A united Left has comprehensively defeated a Nepali Congress-led alliance in both federal and provincial elections. If the Doval Doctrine has suffered a setback it is in Nepal. Khadga Prasad Oli, who crossed swords with the Indian security establishment, will head a bloc enjoying two-thirds majority; the same gentleman who inked a trade treaty with China, recalled his Ambassador in India, traded insults with New Delhi at the UN and withstood a two-month “informal” blockade from India. However, India can still do business with Oli provided it acknowledges and internalises the primary lesson from the recent geopolitical changes: no large country can overshadow a small nation. 

India’s overt desire to control Nepal’s destiny will create a pushback; however, neither is Nepal sliding into China’s camp. Its modern founder Prithvi Narain Shah had set the historical context for equidistance in the conduct of Nepal’s foreign policy by describing it as “yam between two boulders”. And Oli’s China visit was not a recent manifestation of Nepal’s desire to play the China card; upset over India providing safe sanctuary to NC insurgents, King Mahendra had visited Beijing in 1961 — when Sino-Indian ties were going downhill — and got the Mt Everest along with a border treaty. At the same time, the ruling Left will be conscious of loss in political capital if it gets too close to China: the opposition can as adroitly utilise anti-Chinaism as a tool as the Maoists have employed anti-Indianism. 

This is the time to lay out some unusual diplomatic strategies. The natural inclination in the South Block will be to re-enact the familiar rites and symbols: ensuring Oli makes his first visit as PM to India. Instead India needs to unleash the charm of the Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj. It is time we appreciate that Nepal needs to be courted and understood rather than dictated. Nepal has seen how the world operates — it is among the first five in the GDP to remittance ratio — and would not like to tolerate the affectations of a big brother.