Modi in Sochi

An informal or a working visit is way out of ordinary; staged only when two leaders have matters so pressing that they cannot wait for a formal meeting. PM Narendra Modi’s second informal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin after his two-day interaction with the Chinese President Xi Jinping less than a month back suggests there is, indeed, considerable turmoil in global affairs that needs immediate fixing. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj provided a clue when she blamed US President Donald Trump’s “Me First approach” for the storm of protectionism at the global level. India is also concerned over an American law, CAATSA,  that sanctions Iranian and Russian strategic industries and also penalises any third country’s truck with them.  

India has too much riding on both countries, especially Russia: an order book of $12 billion in arms deals, a diversifying energy relationship and transport corridors that open up virgin markets. Add to it the simmering Sino-US trade war and the back-story of all the regional conflicts, and many in Eurasia feel the latest US moves will fuel an extraordinary growth in conflict potential and inhibit India’s rise as a polycentric global power. Rather than ticking off the boxes in the list of unfinished bilateral business, Wuhan and Sochi were a meeting of minds on minimising the impact of Trump-induced incoherence and disharmony in international relations.

The matching enthusiasm of Russia, China and India for the informal interactions points to the extent to which the three countries feel hampered in their efforts to pursue an independent foreign policy because of — in Swaraj’s words — Trump’s “me and myself” approach. India’s simultaneous reach out to Moscow and Beijing is a rare occurrence and could mark a geopolitical shift away from the US. A senior US official is due to arrive in India for testing the waters, post Modi’s Wuhan and Sochi informals. South Block has its task cut out: it cannot summon the previous enthusiasm for a maritime Western alliance against China, has no appetite to join West’s confrontation with Russia but must keep the US on its side.