Of better sense & cheaper oil

Just when India felt oil prices would remain low, civil war has ignited in Yemen, which sits astride the entrance to the Suez Canal and on one of the two exit routes for Saudi Arabian oil. Indian anxiety has been heightened after Saudi Arabia and its friendly Sunni allies started contemplating a boots-on-the-ground move with soldiers borrowed from Pakistan and elsewhere. The latter could be disastrous for both oil prices and the situation in Yemen because all involved factions have decades of intermittent but deadly civil war experience. They are certain to trap a foreign force and open Saudi Arabia, the main proponent, to retaliatory action by the Houthi faction. The northerners in the past have reacted to Saudi meddling by overwhelming their border posts, much to Riyadh's embarrassment. 

The West fears the situation could get worse if the Houthis, allegedly backed by a former President as well as Iran, feel they are getting cornered and could escalate the war into the sea lanes. But that could be an exaggerated fear because after every instance of civil war between north and south Yemen, negotiations have inevitably followed. The tribes of Yemen are different from those of say central Iraq as they have a history of participating in grassroots movements. This is what should be given a chance.

The response by the United Nations has been surprisingly tilted. It is asking the on-the-roll Houthi-led militia to take to talks and ignores Riyadh's role at a time when the Iranian nuclear issue may be heading for a closure. Making Iran a scapegoat is a convenient excuse for meddling, given Yemen's history of internal conflict and Riyadh spurning a seat on the UN Security Council out of pique over US-Iran talks. It becomes laughable when the Saudi-led alliance talks of battling the IS and Al-Qaida in Yemen after having mollycoddled them in Iraq and Syria. For the sake of its economy, India will be hoping politicians of north and south Yemen will again break bread and thus dampen the rising trend of oil prices till the next crisis in the Arab peninsula.