Oli’s exit, India’s gain?

The inevitable has happened in Nepal. Two of the three major parties in Nepal have withdrawn support to Nepal Prime Minister  KP Oli after an acrimonious nine months in office. The South Block is trying to convey the impression that with Oli’s ouster,  India is back in business in Kathmandu. From New Delhi’s perspective any successor, including Maoist supremo Prachanda who is slated to take over as Prime Minister, will be an improvement over Oli. And Prachanda is a pragmatic nationalist, notwithstanding his Maoist antecedents. Despite his party’s theoretical antipathy to India, Prachanda astutely accommodated India’s security requirements during his previous stint as Prime Minister, when Kathmandu dismantled ISI’s network of fake currency and arms running.

Oli’s supporters claim, his fall was due to geopolitics. There is more than a grain of truth in the assertion. As a Marxist, Oli could never have countenanced a pro-political Hindutva tint to the Constitution. Nor could he honour India’s last-minute demarche that the Constitution be changed to accommodate demands by some Madheshi outfits.  A miffed India then subjected Nepal to months of undeclared blockade and the two sides even exchanged harsh words at a UN forum. New Delhi’s heavy-handed “intervention” forced the Nepalese political classes to close ranks, and they went on to  successfully scupper Narendra Modi’s “successful” New 2014 yatra.

Prachanda will take fresh guard.  He need not be saddled with Oli’s obtuseness.  He should be open to mending ties with India such as sending the recalled envoy back to New Delhi. His new prime ministerial innings will last for only nine months before giving the  ‘strike’ to the Nepali Congress. India may hope that Prachanda would retract on two crucial steps in this limited time frame — redraw the country’s federal provinces and downsize Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal later this year. New Delhi would also like him to slowdown on rail links from Tibet because it will undercut India’s near monopolistic hold over trade with Nepal. If Prachanda is to ‘deliver’ on all these counts, New Delhi would have to show extraordinary tact and imagination. Such finesse has so far eluded the South Block.